College Football Picks: Week 10

Since there's a pretty big game tomorrow night (as in, the biggest game so far of the season), and because I have to start some College Basketball previews soon, my football picks are a day early here.

(12) Arkansas @ South Carolina
I picked the Gamecocks to upset Tennesse last week, but they came up just short. Fool me once, shame on you. This week, South Carolina has a chance to beat a ranked team in the 12th ranked Razorbacks. The same Razorbacks whose only loss came that opening night against USC. Things have changed since then. Darren McFadden and Felix Jones have formed a lethal backfield combo, Mitch Mustain is getting comfortable, and the defense has been very good. I think Arkansas is too good, and too talented at RB to fall to South Carolina. ARKANSAS 21-13.

(16) Boston College @ (22) Wake Forest
Don't look now, but both of these teams are 7-1. Um yeah, the ACC isn't that good this year I don't think. Not to trivialize what these teams have done, because there have been some nice victories. Boston College has notched wins over Clemson, Virginia Tech, and FSU so far this year while Wake Forest has, well, Wake Forest hasn't really beaten anybody yet. I'll believe it when I see it. BOSTON COLLEGE 27-20.

(18) Oklahoma @ (21) Texas A&M
Tough game here. I picked against the Sooners last week, and they beat Missouri relatively easily. The Aggies are 8-1, but they end their season with games against Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Texas. They're tough at home, but I'm not picking against Bob Stoops and that Sooner defense two straight weeks. OKLAHOMA 19-16.

(13) LSU @ (8) Tennessee
I know Tennessee has a good record and they've beaten some good opponents, but I'm still having a hard time trusting them. They needed 4th quarter comebacks to beat Alabama and South Carolina in the past couple weeks, and other close calls throughout the year. But I think the luck runs out this week. LSU is very talented, very good defensively, and the offense has played better. Maybe I'll finally be able to believe in the Vols if they win this game, but I'm going with LSU. LSU 17-16.

(3) West Virginia @ (5) Louisville
The game of the year so far, at least as far as its importance. With both teams undefeated, the winner could be looking at controlling their own destiny to make it to the BCS Title Game. When I first prognosticated on this game, I picked Louisville. But now Michael Bush is hurt. They've done a solid job replacing him as best they can, but he just added a whole different dimension to the offense... when they were by the goal-line it was just a given they were going to score a TD. They don't have that now. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers just continue to roll along. Pat White hasn't been great throwing the ball, but with the 1-2 running combo of White and Steve Slaton, he won't have to be. WEST VIRGINIA 34-31.

Last Week: 3-2
Season: 31-14

2006 NBA Preview: Awards and Playoff Predictions

Hopefully you won't all hold it against me that the full preview is out a day after the start of the regular season! But that's a chance I had to take because things were busy. By the way, other good season previews are here or here over at WBRS if you're interested. In case you missed the division previews, here they are:

Atlantic Division
Central Division
Southeast Division
Northwest Division
Southwest Division
Pacific Division

So let's move on from there, to the Conference predictions. If I recall from what Pradamaster told me, the division winner is only guaranteed a top 4 seed, unlike the top 3 seed from last year, which is a big and welcome change. So without further ado, here's my top 8 in each conference.

EAST
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Detroit Pistons
3. Miami Heat
4. Boston Celtics
5. Chicago Bulls
6. Washington Wizards
7. New Jersey Nets
8. Orlando Magic
Next in Line: Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers

WEST
1. Dallas Mavericks
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Phoenix Suns
4. Denver Nuggets
5. Houston Rockets
6. LA Lakers
7. LA Clippers
8. Utah Jazz
Next in Line: NO/OK Hornets, Golden State Warriors

Before we get to the predictions, let's go through some awards, both real and fictional, because it's my blog and I can make up awards if I want to.

MVP
(5) Dwyane Wade - This isn't a slight to Dwyane Wade as much as its respect for everyone else above him. I think Wade could potentially wear down a bit as the regular season goes on, and that, combined with the overall greatness of the guys above him puts him at 5.
(4) Kobe Bryant - Much the same for Kobe as for Wade. If he won the MVP, it wouldn't be at all surprising. But he'll be out probably the first week with a knee injury, plus I think his game will be changed a lot from last year.
(3) Tim Duncan - He had a foot injury last year and was still unbelievable in leading the Spurs to the best regular-season record in the West. This year, all reports say that the foot is feeling great, and he should have a new focus after their early ousting in the postseason.
(2) Dirk Nowitski - He was great last year, and continues to improve and vary his game. He added an unstoppable post game from 15 feet last year, and just continues to improve his offensive game.
(1) LeBron James - I thought he was the best player in the NBA last year, and I think he will be again. We all know about his game... 30, 8, and 8 is not out of the question.

Rookie of the Year
(5 TIE) Jordan Farmar - I think that as the season goes on, he'll start to earn more and more playing time for Phil Jackson. Farmar's a tough PG who just knows the game well, and is a great leader on the court. I'm not big fans of Smush Parker (more on him later) or Sasha Vujacic, which is why I think minutes may be there for Farmar's taking.
(5 TIE) Rodney Carney - With the sad state of Philly, Carney should be starting before too long. He's solid defensively which is a rarity in Philly these days, and can knock down open shots. And Philly doesn't have a whole lot of other options.
(4) Tyrus Thomas - The most athletic player in the draft, I think he'll have an immediate impact defensively. He's a great shot-blocker off the weak side, and he'll get up and down the floor.
(3) Randy Foye - I think it'll take him a little while to adjust, but he's got great game. He can shoot from the outside, get to the basket, and play good defense. With defenses focusing their attention on KG Foye could thrive if he gets the minutes.
(2) Rudy Gay - Gay should get a decent amount of minutes, and with his enormous talent, that's all he needs to be effective. He can finish on the break, has a great pullup jumper, and should pull down rebounds. Passion & Pride likes him as their 6th Man of the Year... I'll settle for #2 on the Rookies list.
(1) Brandon Roy - I think he'll have the best opportunities of all the rookies to contribute, and he's one of the most NBA ready. Portland's got young talent, but they won't be contending, which is why Roy will get a lot of minutes at the 1 and 2 guard. He's got an NBA jumpshot, and he'll be able to get into the lane.

6th Man of the Year
Leandro Barbosa - I just love his game offensively. He can score off the dribble, get out on the break with his blinding speed, and hit the open shot from downtown. He excels in the 1/2 man off the bench in the role that the Suns use him, and he should average at least 10-15 points per game off the bench for the high-scoring Suns. I think that will be enough to edge out Andres Nocioni for the 6th Man of the Year Award.

Most Overrated Players
Peja Stojakovic - On a team with many very good players he thrives. This is what happened in Sacramento when they were winning all of those games... he can stay out of the way and just hit jump shots. Which is nice, but he's sure getting paid a lot to do it. He'll knock down open shots, but I'm skeptical about his ability to create for himself. Of course, with Chris Paul he may not have to.
Smush Parker - He's an average to slightly above average 3-point shooter. That's it. He doesn't create many shots for himself or others, he's not a great ballhandler, and he's not a great defender. He's solid as a guard off the bench, but as a starter, I think he's very overrated.
Ben Wallace - Before you bit my head off, I think he's a bigger offensive detriment than people realize. Last year in the playoffs it was a 4-on-5 offensively for Detroit every time they had the ball. He doesn't score, and he's terrible at the line. The defense is obviously great, and Chicago is certainly better off with him, but I really think the offensive ineptitude is understated.

Most Underrated Players
Gerald Wallace - He contributes in all areas of the game. He's a high percentage shooter and excellent rebounder at his position. But mostly he's excellent defensively. He steals (to the tune of 2.5 per game) and blocks shots (2.1 per game). And at only age 24, he should keep improving as long as the Bobcats don't try to push Adam Morrison ahead of him.
Andres Nocioni - He was my 2nd choice for 6th Man of the Year. He gets overshadowed a bit because Luol Deng plays his same position, but Nocioni is a weapon. He averaged 13 and 6 per game off the bench last year, and is a threat behind the arc. He'd be starting on a lot of teams.
Yao Ming - People obviously know about Yao, but I'm not sure that everyone realize how good he really is. He has become a veritable weapon down low for the Rockets, which makes them a real threat with a healthy T-Mac. After the All-Star break last year he averaged 25.7 PPG and over 11 RPG. He's certainly the top Center in the NBA and probably one of the top 10 players in the game right now.

Playoff Predictions
Cleveland over Orlando in 5
Detroit over New Jersey in 6
Miami over Washington in 6
Chicago over Boston in 4

Dallas over Utah in 5
San Antonio over LA Clippers in 6
Phoenix over LA Lakers in 7
Houston over Denver in 5

Cleveland over Chicago in 7
Miami over Detroit in 7

Dallas over Houston in 6
San Antonio over Phoenix in 7

Cleveland over Miami in 6
Dallas over San Antonio in 7

Dallas over Cleveland in 6



I was tempted to pick San Antonio or Phoenix in the West, but I just think Dallas it the most versatile team... more offensively potent than San Antonio, better defensively than Phoenix. That combo is enough for them to finish the job this time.

Well, how wrong am I?

2006 NBA Preview: Pacific Division

And at last, the final division of these previews before I do my final preseason preview. I know you've all been waiting.

Golden State Warriors - With Nellie Ball in effect, they should at least be more interesting to watch. Everything about this team depends on Baron Davis staying healthy, which as you know is no guarantee. There is no decent backup to Baron. But if he can stay healthy, they might have a playoff chance with Nellie. Jason Richardson is very good on one wing, and Mickael Pietrus has shown flashes at the small forward spot. Mike Dunleavy will start at the 4, and that will cause matchup problems (both for Dunleavy and whoever he's guarding). If Baron can stay healthy and the young guys keep improving, they'll contend for the 8 seed.

LA Clippers - Coming off the playoff berth, expectations are high. Maybe a little too high. Cassell and Mobley are a year older, and I'm not sure Elton Brand can be quite that good again. Though things aren't all bad. Corey Maggette was hurt for a large portion of last year, and having him healthy is a huge help. Also a wildcard is the development of Shaun Livingston... as John Hollinger wrote, "As for Livingston, he's a wild card -- a 15-minute-a-night curiosity if he doesn't learn how to shoot; a frighteningly talented player if he does." All told, I expect a return trip to the playoffs for the Clips, but it won't be easy.

LA Lakers - They've got on guy who I've heard is pretty good named Kobe Bryant. But they also have a little more depth this year, with the additions of Vlad Radmanovic, Shammond Williams, Mo Evans, and Jordan Farmar. Tack on the improvements of guys like Kwame Brown and Andrew Bynum, and there's no reason why these guys can't be right back in the playoffs. As long as they have Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant, they have a chance.

Phoenix Suns - These guys are hands-down the most fun team in the NBA to watch, and if Amare Stoudemire comes back they could be the most talented as well. They're athetic, great shooters, and obviously they can get up and down the floor. With Kurt Thomas in there, they're also half-decent defensively, and even better if Amare can be healthy. They're title contenders regardless.

Sacramento Kings - I'm not very optimistic about the Kings chances of returning to the playoffs. When healthy, the starters are decent enough. But the bench? Not so much. Their top bench players are Kenny Thomas, John Salmons, and Francisco Garcia. These guys just simply aren't talented enough in the deep Western conference, and that's before even considering the seemingly inevitable Ron Artest blowup.

Predicted Order of Finish
1. Phoenix Suns
2. LA Lakers
3. LA Clippers
4. Golden State Warriors
5. Sacramento Kings

I give up trying to understand the NFL

If you'll check my picks for the games, you can verify I'm not smart. Consider:

Last week the Jaguars lost by 20 points to the Houston Texans. This week, they played without their starting QB and ran the ball all over the Philadelphia Eagles and shut down Donovan McNabb for the most part, who's an MVP candidate at this point in a 13-6 win. The Texans are 2-5 (and lost to Tennessee) while the Eagles drop to 4-4.

A few weeks ago it took the Chicago Bears three (3) non-offensive TDs and a late missed FG to eek out a 24-23 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Since then, the Cardinals have lost to the previously winless Oakland Raiders and then were handily beat by the 3-4 Green Bay Packers. The Chicago Bears led their game 41-0 at the half.

Speaking of the Raiders, a couple weeks they looked like they might have a shot at going 16-0... now they stand at 2-5... the same record as the defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

Mike Vick has thrown 7 TD passes in 2 games.

The NFL. I don't understand it. I just watch it.

2006 NBA Preview: Southwest Division

And now on to the division that had, at least for my money, at least 2 of the 3 best teams in the NBA last season. And that's not even counting the team that employs Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming.

Dallas Mavericks - Where to start. They have one of the best coaches in the NBA, one of the top 3 or 4 players in the NBA, and a great cast of guys who all know their roles. They can play smallball, pound it inside, play a perimter and uptempo game, or beat you with strong defense. They have the most versatile roster in the NBA, which is why they made it to the Championship last year and have a shot to repeat that this year. Another good thing is that Josh Howard keeps getting better and better. What a joy to watch.

Houston Rockets - I know I have mentioned this once before... but think about how the Heat won the NBA Title last year... they had a playmaking off guard that could score at will when he was on his game, a solid Center down low to keep defenses honest, a couple of guys that could hit down open shots, and role players that didn't command the ball. What do the Rockets have? An off guard that can score at will when he's hot (and healthy), a great Center that's gotten better every year, and they now have capable role players with guys like Shane Battier and Bonzi Wells. I'm not saying they're the Heat and that they'll win the Title... but if McGrady stays healthy, they're very dangerous.

Memphis Grizzlies - Their starting guards are Damon Stoudamire and Eddie Jones. I think both were in their prime about 5-10 years ago. Sadly, it doesn't get much better. Pau Gasol is out to start the season. Jake Tsakalidis is their starting center. Shane Battier, Lorenzen Wright, and Bobby Jackson are all gone. They've got some nice rookies with Rudy Gay and Kyle Lowry, but this will be a long year for the Grizz, especially considering that they were in the playoffs last year.

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets - The team that made the biggest splash in the offseason, and seems to be the sleeper pick of many people. However, I think they played over their heads last year and may have overinflated some expecations... but there is definitely lots of reasons for optimism. It starts with Chris Paul, and I do really like him a lot. Simply put, he's second only to Steve Nash as a playmaking PG in year 2 of his NBA career. The assist total should only go up, with Tyson Chandler being able to outlet the ball and start the break, and Peja Stojakovic in town to drain the 3. David West is efficient and very good on the low block. And through the draft and a couple of other minor additions, they'll have more depth. If nothing else, Chris Paul makes them one of the most exciting teams in the League to watch.

San Antonio Spurs - The old reliables are all back in town for San Antonio. With mainstays Gregg Popovich, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili, we know they'll always be in contention. But they also made some other nice moves. They signed Jackie Butler, a guy you may not have heard of but according to John Hollinger, "...he's been working out all summer in San Antonio and I expect him to be a revelation this season as the Spurs' starting center." So that's nice. They also signed role players like Matt Bonner, Jacque Vaughn, etc. The core is the same, but they should be better able to compete with teams like the Mavs or Suns when they play small.

Predicted Order of Finish
1. Dallas Mavericks
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Houston Rockets
4. NO/OC Hornets
5. Memphis Grizzlies

2006 NBA Preview: Northwest Division

Now that I've previewed the East, it's time to move on to the stronger, deeper Western conference. Because that's just the natural progression of things.

Denver Nuggets - A lot of things will revolve around Carmelo, the great talent that he is, again, but a lot of how the Nuggets do will be determined by the health of the bigs. Marcus Camby is very, very good on both ends of the floor if he's healthy, K-Mart can be a solid contributor, and Nene is a solid big off the bench. Andre Miller's a rock at PG, I really do like JR Smith at SG... if the bigs stay healthy, I see another division title in their future.

Minnesota Timberwolves - KG at least has a little more help with the additions of Mike James and Randy Foye, but that doesn't mean the TWolves are anywhere near where they were a few years ago. Trenton Hassell is not a very good starter, and I'm not a big Ricky Davis fan. At center, Mark Blount just isn't very good at all. I'm sorry, but these guys will not be headed to the playoffs in the West, even with a top 5 player in KG. There's just not enough talent around him.

Portland Trailblazers - I like what the Blazers have done, getting rid of some of the bad seeds and bringing in a lot of young talent and hoping it develops. They're at least a year off from being a decent team, but at least they're going in the right direction. They've got young talent everywhere in Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez, etc. At the very least, they should be entertaining at times to watch (until the inevitable Zach Randolph incident).

Seattle Supersonics - With Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, the Sonics should be raining 3s and scoring lots and lots of points... on the other side of the equation, however, they can't stop anyone. They've got a lot of first-round big men, but so far that hasn't translated into much production down low. This should probably look a lot like last year... lots of offense, no defense, and no playoff berth.

Utah Jazz - Like Denver, a lot of Utah's success will be determined by the health of the big guys. Andrei Kirilenko, Carlos Boozer, and Mehmet Okur has not got to play a lot with each other because of injuries, but if they all stay healthy it's a potentially excellent, excellent combo. Plus, the depth up front leaves something to be desired, making good health even more imperative. In the backcourt, they have a very solid Deron Williams, who should improve a lot on year 2. They've got a whole host of other guys to play the 1-2-3 spots, including Gordan Giricek, Ronnie Brewer, Matt Harpring, and Derek Fisher. It all depends on the frontcourt.

Predicted Order of Finish
1. Denver Nuggets
2. Utah Jazz
3. Seattle Supersonics
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
5. Portland Trailblazers

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8

Back with the fun game we all like and enjoy, my picks for the NFL games. I've been marred in a large 2 week slump, which has seen me drop all the way down to .500 for the season. Hopefully that changes this week.

Bengals (-3.5) over Falcons
Michael Vick finally was good at passing for one week. On the road against Cincy, I'm not sure he'll duplicate that success in the air. We've been fooled too many times before. I'll take Cincy and the points.

Bucs (+9) over Giants
Giants have been real impressive over the past few weeks, now looking like the best team in the East. But the Bucs have shown they're not quite as bad as they showed in the first 4 weeks. Bruce Gradkowksi has got the offense going a little bit, and the D is starting to play well. I'll take the Bucs to cover the spread, though the Giants to win the game.

49ers (+15.5) over Bears
The last game the Bears played the offense produced absolutely nothing against Arizona. I'm sorry, but I'm not taking them to cover this huge spread, even with how good they looked in the first 5 weeks. Bears are still a great team, but not quite the invincible one they were 2 weeks ago.

Eagles (-7.5) over Jaguars
Two straight heartbreaking losses for the Eagles, as well as seeing their record drop to 4-3 has to be good motivation. Meanwhile, everyone was crowning the Jags as one of the best teams in the NFL after their defense destroyed Pittsburgh on MNF, but they've since struggled. They got pummeled by Houston last week, and now Leftwich won't be playing this week. They're better than they've been playing, but I'll take the Eagles to cover.

Seahawks (+4) over Chiefs
Seneca Wallace didn't look all that good last week, but with a full week of practice he should better. But the better news for Seattle is that Damon Huard is hurt and might not play... it'll be a game-time decision. If he doesn't start, Brodie Croyle will. Last year at this time, Croyle was a decent QB at Alabama. I don't see that ending well.

Texans (+3) over Titans
The Titans have been playing better under the resurgent Travis Henry, but the Texans are starting to get things figured out offensively as well. Wali Lundy ran the ball well last week, and David Carr to Andre Johnson is better than what the Titans can put out there right now. This won't be a real pretty game, but I'll take Houston.

Saints (-1.5) over Ravens
Sorry, still not buying this Steve McNair thing. He just has not been very good so far this year. The Saints, on the other hand, have been playing great offensively. They use the Reggie Bush/Deuce McAllister combo perfectly, Drew Brees is playing excellently, and the receivers are solid. There might not be a more fun offense in the league to watch. At home they've been really, really tough this year.

Packers (-4) over Cardinals
Two mediocre teams. I'll take the home team in this one.

Chargers (-9.5) over Rams
The Chargers should be the best team in the NFL, they have that kind of talent, but they've just been maddeningly inconsistent. Though at home they've been real good... I'll take them to cover against St. Louis in San Diego (anyone know the origin of the name, by the way?)

Colts (+3) over Broncos
I know how good the Broncos defense has been this year. And I know how good their running game is. But I refuse to take a Jake Plummer led team over a Peyton Manning led team, especially when the Jake Plummer led team is favored. Not going to happen.

Jets (+1.5) over Cleveland
I like Romeo Crennel, I like Charlie Frye, but I just don't like the Browns right now. 1-5, and they're averaging 14.7 PPG this year. Now that it appears the Jets have some type of a running game with Leon Washington, I'll take them to win this game.

Steelers (-9) over Raiders
The Raiders are looking like an actual NFL team finally, but the Steelers have to be getting desparate... sitting at 2-4, a win is imperative here. I don't think they'll disappoint.

Cowboys (+6) over Panthers
Everything points to the Panthers here... Romo looked bad last week, Panthers have been playing great since Steve Smith returned, and it's in Carolina. I just have a feeling this will be a close game.

Patriots (-2) over Vikings
I hate picking these Vikings games... I think this will be a real tight and competitive game with either team having a shot to win it. Two very good defenses, two good running games. I'll take New England just because if they win I'll at least have some positive from the game. If the Vikings win, well, I'll be happy to have been proven wrong.

Last Week: 4-8-1

Season: 47-47-6