Sweet 16 Predictions

With 2 (or 3, depending on who you ask) rounds complete, it is time to make some predictions on who will make the Final Four.

EAST

1 Ohio St over 4 Kentucky
The Wildcats are just as talented as the Buckeyes, but there is no making up for the experience difference. When toughness is needed, I trust guys like William Buford, David Lighty, and Jon Diebler more than I trust anyone on Kentucky.

2 North Carolina over 11 Marquette
I think UNC caught a bit of a break when Marquette knocked off Syracuse, because UNC would have struggled with the Orange zone. Buzz Williams is one heck of a coach, so expect this to be a tight game, tighter than the talent difference would indicate. But in the end, Marquette doesn't have anyone as good as Harrison Barnes.

1 Ohio St. over 2 North Carolina
Much like the Buckeyes previous game against Kentucky, the Heels have the talent to stick with Ohio St., but not the experience. Buckeyes will not be denied, as nobody has looked better so far in the Tourney.


WEST

1 Duke over 5 Arizona
Arizona is very fortunate to have gotten this far. They needed a last second block by Derrick Williams to get past Memphis (when there arguably could have been a foul called on the rebound), and they needed a 5 second call on Texas (which arguably should have been a timeout granted for the Horns) before their winning basket. Derrick Williams is the X Factor, because he is playing as well as anyone in the country, but Duke just has too many horses for Arizona to stick around.

2 San Diego St over 3 UConn
The Aztecs won perhaps the worst March Madness double OT game in history, but don't hold it against them, they simply win. They got a bad game from their star and still beat a good Temple team. Against SDSU's big and athletic front line, Kemba Walker could find those holes to the basket closing more quickly than he is used to.

2 San Diego St over 1 Duke
If there is anyone that Duke is susceptible to, it would be an athletic team with a talented front line. The Aztecs fit that bill. While Duke will have a decided edge in the backcourt, look for SDSU's frontcourt to take command. Also, this game will be in Anaheim, making it a virtual home game for the winner of the Mountain West.


SOUTHWEST

1 Kansas over 12 Richmond
Richmond is a great story, but they simply don't have the horses to compete against KU. The Jayhawks will be able to throw plenty of athletes at Kevin Anderson, and the Spiders need big things from him to advance. Not going to happen.

11 VCU over 10 Florida St.
The Seminoles were extremely impressive in their win over Notre Dame, but they had perhaps their best offensive game of the year, something we have not seen consistently from them. I don't think we will see it again this week. VCU is playing as well as anyone.

1 Kansas over 11 VCU
Don't feel bad for Shaka Smart though, he appears ready to cash in on a big payday.

SOUTHEAST

4 Wisconsin over 8 Butler
Everyone (including myself) underrated the Badgers for their miserable Big 10 performance, but this is a very quality team. They don't turn the ball over, are efficient on offense, and have two studs in Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer. This will be a slow game and won't be one to tell the grandkids about, but I like Wisconsin. First to 50 wins.

3 BYU over 2 Florida
Don't underestimate Jimmer. Not sure how BYU will be able to slow down Florida inside, but I like them to get up and down, and for Jimmer to score just enough. Hopefully we get another game like their first round battle last season.

4 Wisconsin over 3 BYU
The Badgers become the second Big Ten team in the Final Four, as Bo Ryan shows his genius by controlling tempo and frustrating Jimmer.

What are your picks?

Early Conference Tournaments

On Saturday, three conference tournaments played their championship game, meaning 3 teams clinched their spot in The Big Dance. A quick look at all of them.

Big South - UNC-Asheville
They took care of top seeded Coastal Carolina, who was decimated by injuries and suspensions (they had 8 active players). UNC-Asheville was the 3 seed out of the Big South, and they took out 6th seed Charleston Southern and 7th seed High Point before taking down Coastal Carolina. Despite being a 19 win team, look for them to potentially be in the play-in game. They could win that, but their chances of winning a Tourney game are minimal.

Atlantic-Sun - Belmont
The Bruins are about to become very popular in America. That is because they are a 30 win team that has lost to Tennessee twice, Vanderbilt, and one fluky conference loss to Lipscomb. Other than that, they are unblemished on the season, and won their conference championship by 41 points over North Florida (who was the 6 seed in the conference). Look for Belmont to a be about a 13 seed and a popular upset choice in the first round.

Ohio Valley - Morehead St.
The Eagles are led by Kenneth Faried, one of the best big men in college basketball and one of the best rebounders in recent college basketball history. Though the much anticipated rematch with Murray St. did not happen, it was still an entertaining game in their win over Tennessee Tech. While I am not sure if they have the guard play to spring an upset (Demonte Harper notwithstanding), I don't think any team is going to be eager to take on Kenneth Faried in the first round of the Tournament. It is fitting for the OVC Player of the Year to end his career playing in the Tourney.

Do any of these teams have a chance to win a game in The Big Dance?

NCAA Tournament Thoughts and Predictions

Hello all!

I have been writing some on another blog... if you are interested in any thoughts and predictions on the NCAA Tournament, please check out Roundball Thoughts.

Midwest Region thoughts
West Region thoughts
East Region thoughts
South Region thoughts

Only a couple more days until game time!!

How many NCAA Tournament teams from the Big East?

As we begin to approach March Madness, the annual question begins to come up... how many teams are going to make the tournament out of the Big East? It was a conference that was expected to be down a bit at the beginning of the season, but it has been as strong as ever.

There are, of course, a few locks to make it in. Syracuse, West Virginia, and Villanova have been in the top 10 for most of the season, and they will be dancing. Pittsburgh has also been ranked for much of the season, and their ticket appears to be punched. Ditto for Georgetown.

After that, I wouldn't want to be setting any college basketball betting lines for how things will shake out.

Connecticut looked like it would have a tough time getting in as recent as a couple weeks ago, but they have made some big statement wins. They have wins over West Virginia and Villanova, but they are also only 7-9 in the Big East.

UConn will be hurt by their loss to fellow bubble contender Louiville, improving the Cardinals to 10-6 in the conference. They look like they will be in after their win over the Huskies.

Similarly, Marquette beating Seton Hall on Sunday might have been close to a play-in game, as both teams are right on the bubble. Marquette won 84-83 in OT, improving them to 10-6 in the conference, while the Pirates fell to 7-9. While Marquette has a middling RPI, their 10 conference wins (and counting) will be difficult to ignore.

Most penciled Notre Dame out of the tournament when Luke Harangody went down with injury, but they have played very well without him. They scored two big wins against Pittsburgh and Georgetown in the past week, and have a great chance of playing themselves into the tournament at the end of the regular season.

Cincinnati and South Florida have had their moments throughout the year, but I am not sure that their overall body of work will be enough to get them in.

As of now, I see 9 Big East teams in the Tournament:
Syracuce
Villanova
West Virginia
Georgetown
Pittsburgh
Connecticut
Louisville
Notre Dame
Marquette

What do you think?

Rock, Chalk, Championship

I'm speaking, of course, of the play on words that Jim Nantz has after the final buzzer sounds. Not a bad effort. He didn't really seem to have a lot to work with, as the Kansas Jayhawks is not something that lends itself very easily to a play on words.

If Memphis had won, he probably would have had it easier because of Derrick Rose. Some things he could have used for Memphis:

- "Memphis is smelling like roses."
- "Kissed by a rose."

All in all, bravo Jim Nance, bravo. You're the one thing we can count on every year.

On a sidenote, does Mario Chalmers have ice water in his veins or what? Wow.

Final Four Picks

I'm getting these up really late, but it's before gametime, so it's legal. I just wanted to be on record with my picks.

First, I'll obviously take UCLA over Memphis. I like the Bruins to slow the game down, and effectively run it when there is something open. Memphis is not great offensively in the half-court game, and I think the Bruins can make it one. The two keys to this one are whether Joey Dorsey can slow down Kevin Love, and whether Josh Shipp can finally get his shooting stroke back, because they are going to need him against a very good Memphis defense.
UCLA 73, Memphis 70

In the next matchup, I think the Tar Heels are just playing a little bit too well right now. Their offense is firing on all cylinders, and Kansas is coming off of a game in which they struggled a bit against Davidson. I don't see the Jayhawks bigs stopping Tyler Hansbrough down low, who should have another big day. The Jayhawks balance will allow them to run with the Tar Heels, but I think UNC is just a little more efficient offensively.
North Carolina 81, Kansas 77

Sweet 16 Predictions

With my bracket sort of in shambles (thanks Pac-10!), it's time to move on and give some new predictions for the Sweet 16. The 8 games look to provide some very interesting matchups and contrasting styles, making it a pretty nice slate of games.

North Carolina over Washington - You couldn't ask for a game with more diverse playing styles. North Carolina likes to run all day, as they have averaged 110.5 PPG in the Tourney. Washington St. likes to slow things down and grind it out, giving up an averge of 40.5 PPG in the first 2 games. As they say, something has to give. Only allowing 41 points to Notre Dame is seriously impressive, and leads me to believe that the Cougars are going to make this game a lot closer than the talent would suggest that it could. Washington St. will be able to slow things down and make North Carolina shoot a lot of jumpshots, but in the end, I don't see them having any way of shutting down Tyler Hansbrough in the post.

Louisville over Tennessee - I picked Tennessee to win this game before the Tournament, but I am changing my vote. Louisville has been a lot more impressive than the Volunteers have so far. Both teams like to play full-court games, and it seems like Tennessee is having some trouble holding onto the ball with some questions at the PG spot (let's just say we probably won't be saying JP Prince start again this game). This should be an extremely entertaining game between two very good, well-coached teams, but I think Louisville is playing better basketball right now.

Kansas over Villanova - The Wildcats have been impressive thus far, but it's hard to see them matching up with Kansas. The Jayhawks guards are good enough defensively to stop Scottie Reynolds, and it seems as if they just have too much depth for Villanova to contend with.

Wisconsin over Davidson - Davidson is the Cinderella team of the Tournament so far (even more so than lower-seeded Western Kentucky), which makes them a bit of a trendy pick here. But I like the Badgers and their stout defense to move on. They have the athletes to throw at Stephen Curry to be able to slow down his open looks (granted, he doesn't need much space for it to be an open look), and they might be the best help defense team in the country, meaning that Curry won't find a lot of space when he drives the ball. Not that Georgetown or Gonzaga were poor defensive teams, but I just think Curry is going to have a much tougher go of it against the Badgers, propelling Bo Ryan's team to the Elite Eight.

Memphis over Michigan St. - Michigan St. will try to slow things down and grind it out, but I don't see them having enough offense to keep up with Memphis all game. The Tigers are a solid defensive team, and I don't see the Spartans having enough playmakers to keep a consistent flow going in the halfcourt offense for Michigan St. I like Memphis here.

Texas over Stanford - A fascinating matchup between two teams that do completely different things (and do them well), I like the Longhorns by a smidgen. The Lopez Twins will be very difficult for Texas to contain, and they will also slow down the penetration of DJ Augustin, but I think the versatility of Damion James will make the difference. He will make the Stanford bigs come out and defend him, drawing them away from the basket. This should be a great matchup.

UCLA over Western Kentucky - Courtney Lee will give the Bruins some problems, but not enough for WKU to overcome UCLA. The Bruins suffered a scare against A&M, but I have a hard time seeing them so unfocused (at least for the first 30 minutes) for 2 straight games under Ben Howland. Kevin Love looked like he was on a mission at the end of last game, and Darren Collison is playing the best basketball of his career.

Xavier over West Virginia - Xavier is a more complete team than the ones that WVU has beaten so far. They can go inside or outside, and the Mountaineers will have some trouble matching up with Josh Duncan for the Musketeers. Meanwhile, I think that Xavier's athletic wing players will be able to slow down Joe Alexander and Alex Ruoff, allowing Xavier to move on.

Not a lot of upsets, but that is the beauty of March... sometimes they're really hard to see before they happen. What do you think will happen this weekend?

NCAA Bracket Predictions: Final Four

Time for the Final Four Picks!

EAST REGION PREDICTIONS
MIDWEST REGION PREDICTIONS
SOUTH REGION PREDICTIONS
WEST REGION PREDICTIONS

East Winner: Tennessee VS.
Midwest Winner: Kansas

This would be an exciting matchup between two teams with very potent offenses. Tennessee would come out and press all day, but Kansas has the guard play and ballhandling to handle the pressure. Tennessee would have to make contested shots, as Kansas is very good defensively. At the end of the day, Kansas is just a little better, more balanced team.


South Winner: Texas VS.
West Winner: UCLA

Texas won the first matchup between these teams at Pauley Pavilion, but this is a different UCLA team. Darren Collison is fully healthy and playing the best basketball of his life. Kevin Love is fully ingrained within the UCLA offense. They are clicking and playing a lot better. I think they do a better job with team defense on DJ Augustin, and this leads UCLA to victory.


Championship Game: UCLA vs. Kansas

A rematch of last year's regional final, and what a load of talent would be on display for this game. Both teams are excellent defensively and efficient offensively. Kansas is a little better shooting the basketball, but UCLA is better scoring down low with Kevin Love. In the end, I think the Bruins balance wins out... as if there was any doubt about who I'd pick to win it all.

CHAMPION: UCLA BRUINS

NCAA Bracket Predictions: West

The final region!

ROUND ONE

(1) UCLA over (16) Miss. Valley St. - I think the Bruins should be able to take this one.

(9) Texas A&M over (8) BYU - I like the Cougars, but the Aggies are playing well right now and are just a little more talented.

(5) Drake over (12) Western Kentucky - I'm really excited for this game. But I think Drake's team-oriented style will be able to overcome Courtney Lee, the most talented player in this game.

(4) Connecticut over (13) San Diego - The Toreros are playing well, and Brandon Johnson and Geno Pomare are really good players, but UConn is really good. AJ Price is playing at a pretty high level right now.

(11) Baylor over (6) Purdue - I like the guard play for Baylor. Plus, they're more experienced than Purdue (not necessarily tournament experience, but game experience). Plus, going what they've been through the past couple years, they might be a little hungrier.

(3) Xavier over (14) Georgia - It was a nice storybook run for the Dawgs, but it ends at the hands of the Musketeers.

(10) Arizona over (7) West Virginia - Arizona is really good and really talented when they're healthy... well, they're healthy.

(2) Duke vs. (15) Belmont - Thanks for playing Belmont.


ROUND TWO

(1) UCLA over (9) Texas A&M - UCLA has the interior defense to deal with Jones and Jordan, and A&M can't match the Bruins guard play.

(4) Connecticut over (5) Drake - I love Drake, but they haven't faced a defense like UConn yet this year. They'll still get their shots (they won't be as affected by Thabeet in the middle), but UConn's quickness will be just a little too disruptive.

(11) Baylor over (3) Xavier - With question marks about whether Drew Lavendar is 100%, Baylor's guards will pose problems for the Musketeers. They become the highest seed to make the Sweet 16 by eeking out a win.

(10) Arizona over (2) Duke - Duke can be beat by quick guards, and that could mean a big game for Jerryd Bayless. The Wildcats shock Duke and advance to the Sweet 16, showing the strength of the Pac 10.


SWEET 16

(1) UCLA over (4) Connecticut - The disciplined defense of the Bruins is the difference in this game. They win a low-scoring game against the Huskies to keep their run going.

(10) Arizona over (11) Baylor - The Wildcats just have more all-around talent in this game, and that propels them into the Elite Eight. Chase Budinger should have a huge day.


ELITE EIGHT

(1) UCLA over (10) Arizona - They meet for the third time, and once again, UCLA comes out on top. Too much defense, too much Kevin Love.

Regional Champion: UCLA

NCAA Bracket Predictions: South

Moving on to the South region...

ROUND ONE

(1) Memphis over (16) Texas-Arlington - Memphis wins a squeaker.

(8) Mississippi St. over (9) Oregon - JaMont Gordon is the best player in this game, and he leads an underrated Mississippi St. club to a win over Oregon.

(5) Michigan St. over (12) Temple - The Owls are becoming a popular upset pick, but I like Tom Izzo coached teams a lot. I like the Nietzel and Izzo combo to lead the Spartans to round 2.

(4) Pittsburgh over (13) Oral Roberts - I like ORU, but Pittsburgh is playing pretty solid basketball right now. Their toughness wins out.

(6) Marquette over (11) Kentucky - I don't see the Kentucky guards being able to stop the Marquette guards, and the Wildcats don't have the size to exploit Marquette down low.

(3) Stanford over (14) Cornell - Cornell might keep it close for a while because of their shooting ability, but they can't handle Stanford down low all day.

(10) St. Mary's over (7) Miami - Like everyone else, I'm taking the combo of Patrick Mills and Diamon Simpson to lead the Gaels into round 2.

(2) Texas over (15) Austin Peay - Texas wins this going away. Obviously.


ROUND TWO

(1) Memphis over (8) Mississippi St. - Too many athletes and too much depth for Memphis in this game.

(4) Pittsburgh over (5) Michigan St. - This would be a low-scoring battle, but I like the experience that Pittsburgh has to lead them into the Sweet 16.

(3) Stanford over (6) Marquette - The Marquette guards could have a tough time scoring once they get it into the paint and run into the Lopez Twins. This is a fascinating potential matchup, but I think the Stanford guards are better than Marquette's big men.

(2) Texas over (10) St. Mary's - The Gaels will keep it interesting if they hit their outside shots, but Texas can hurt you in too many ways.


SWEET 16

(1) Memphis over (4) Pittsburgh - Pitt is becoming a popular upset pick here, but I don't see it. I don't think they'll be able to match up with the speed of Memphis. Memphis puts up a little too many points for Pittsburgh to match.

(2) Texas vs. (3) Stanford - In a game I would absolutely love to see. The contrast of styles would be fantastic. I like the Longhorns to prevail in a really tight game, because they can make more plays down the stretch than Stanford. But how would Texas guard the Lopez Twins? How would Stanford guards the Longhorn guards? Intriguing.


ELITE EIGHT

(2) Texas over (1) Memphis - I like Texas' versatility a little more. I like Joey Dorsey a lot, but I don't think he matches up really well with the Texas big men. Derrick Rose vs. DJ Augustin would be an awesome matchup, and I think Augustin is just a little more refined at this point in his career.

Regional Champion: TEXAS

NCAA Bracket Predictions: Midwest Region

Moving on to the Midwest.

ROUND ONE

(1) Kansas over (16) Portland St. - The Jayhawks should dispatch of them pretty easily.

(8) UNLV over (9) Kent St. - Kent St. is certainly a really good team, but I like UNLV. They're very well-coached by Lon Kruger, they have Tourney experience (at least, the few holdovers from last year), and they're fresh off winning the Mountain West.

(5) Clemson over (12) Villanova - Clemson is really good. Villanova is really inconsistent. I have a hard time seeing Nova putting up enough points in this game.

(4) Vanderbilt over (13) Siena - Siena is becoming the trendy upset pick, but hold on a minute. I know they have talent, but they don't have anyone like Shan Foster or AJ Ogilvy. And Kevin Stallings is a pretty darn good coach. I'll take Vandy to win this game.

(6) USC vs. (11) Kansas St. - All about coaching, and USC has a huge edge there. I'm excited to see what Tim Floyd, the man who beat Kevin Durant in last year's Tourney, comes up this year to try and slow down Michael Beasley.

(3) Wisconsin over (14) CF Fullerton - Badgers are too tough defensively here.

(10) Davidson over (7) Gonzaga - The Zags have talent all over, but Davidson is playing too well right now. They obviously have Stephen Curry, but don't discount Jason Richards at the PG spot. He's real good.

(2) Georgetown over (15) UMBC - Uh, yeah. I think the Hoyas will have enough in this one.


ROUND TWO

(1) Kansas over (8) UNLV - UNLV is a tough team, but they don't have the talent or depth to match up with the Jayhawks

(5) Clemson over (4) Vanderbilt - The Tigers are playing very good basketball right now. They have the big men to slow down Ogilvy down low, and that makes the Commodores one-dimensional.

(6) USC over (3) Wisconsin - I just like USC's superior athleticism and talent in this game. It might not be pretty, but I think they'll be able to score just a little more easily than the Badgers.

(10) Davidson over (2) Georgetown - Just a feeling. The Hoyas haven't been overly impressive all season long. They need Hibbert to step up, and I just see Davidson being a little better in this one. At the very least, they won't be intimidated.


SWEET 16

(1) Kansas over (5) Clemson - I think Clemson would have a very legitimate chance in this one, but the Jayhawks are playing very good basketball right now. They're just a little too talented for Clemson.

(6) USC over (10) Davidson - USC's a little too talented. Tim Floyd can devise some type of game plan to help slow down Stephen Curry, and USC's athletes can get to the rim against Davidson.


ELITE EIGHT

(1) Kansas over (6) USC - The Trojans run out of gas. Kansas is much deeper in this game, allowing them to run USC off the floor.

Regional Champion: KANSAS

NCAA Bracket Predictions: East Region

First up, all of my picks for the East region!

ROUND ONE

(1) North Carolina over (16) Play-In - Obviously.

(9) Arkansas over (8) Indiana - Oh, how the Hoosiers have fallen. They have the talent to win this game and give UNC a scare, but not the heart. Razorbacks have the big men to contend with DJ White.

(5) Notre Dame over (12) George Mason - Not a good matchup for the Patriots. They can't run with the Irish, and I don't think they'll be able to slow the game down.

(4) Washington St. over (13) Winthrop - Tempting to pick Winthrop to win an NCAA game for the 2nd straight year, but I don't think they have the firepower.

(11) St. Joseph's over (6) Oklahoma - Not crazy about this pick, but the Sooners don't have a ton of offensive explosiveness. This will be a low-scoring, ugly game.

(3) Louisville over (14) Boise St. - Boise is a real dangerous 14 seed, but Louisville is just too good. But I think this game will be closer than people expect.

(7) Butler over (10) South Alabama - I really like South Alabama, but Butler is too good. They're a 4 or 5 seed masquerading as a 7 seed.

(2) Tennessee over (15) American - Tennessee will have a much easier go of it than the last time they were a 2 seed.


ROUND TWO

(1) North Carolina over (9) Arkansas - Arkansas does not have the firepower or athleticism to hang with the top-seeded Heels for 40 minutes.

(5) Notre Dame over (4) Washington St. - The Cougars are a great defensive team, but you can beat them by shooting over them. The Irish have the shooters to do it. Kyle McAlarney is a huge key in this game.

(3) Louisville over (11) St. Joseph's - The Cardinal are too deep and versatile for Phil Martelli's team.

(2) Tennessee over (7) Butler - Fascinating potential matchup. I've written many times about how much I love Butler, but it's a tough draw for them. They'll score points against a fairly undisciplined UT defense, but I'm not sure they'll be able to stop the Volunteers.


SWEET 16

(1) North Carolina over (5) Notre Dame - This would be a really high-scoring battle, but too much depth for the Heels. Harangody vs. Hansbrough would be an awesome matchup down low.

(2) Tennessee vs. (3) Louisville - Two teams that I think could give the Heels a scare in the Elite Eight. I like Tennessee a little more in this game... Louisville has a lot of ballhandlers, but not really a true PG to handle the pressure.


ELITE EIGHT

(2) Tennessee over (1) North Carolina - I think the Volunteers have the talent to get to the Fina Four. As they have shown this year, they have the talent to beat anyone, and they won't be intimidated by North Carolina. I like the Vols to edge out North Carolina in a highly entertaining game.

Regional Champion: TENNESSEE

Florida is pretty good

Well, that's about what I expected. Ohio St. showed flashes that they could make it interesting, but in the end Florida was just the better team, and this one was never really in doubt.

Even Nantz disappointed... he pulled out something like, "Florida takes its place in history. Back-to-back." I'm not going to say he read my post and decided to keep the puns on the down low this year... well, actually that's what I'm going to say to make myself look important.

One thing I have to mention... for anyone complaining that Oden didn't have a signature game, well, there you go. He was fantastic. 38 minutes, 25 points, 12 rebounds, 4 blocks, and he was getting almost anything he wanted down low. A brilliant effort and his best game as a freshman in what will probably be his final collegiate game.

But he just didn't have enough help, mainly because of the enormous difference in 3-pointers. Gators were 10/18, Buckeyes were 4/23. That's the ballgame.

Great season for the Buckeyes with all of the freshmen, but when it came down to it, for the 2nd straight year the Gators were clearly the best team in the country. Congratulations to Florida and all of their fans!

Title Game Prediction

In all honesty, this Tournament hasn't really been as exciting as I was hoping for. It was a great regular season, and there have been great matchups and great games, but a lot of the Tourney hasn't quite lived up to the hype.

The Final Four was no exception there. The matchups looked like they would be fantastic, but the games weren't that good. This title game is the last chance to save us.

It's a matchup between two really good and really talented teams... Florida is older and more experienced, while Ohio St. may have more physical talent. They played earlier and the game was tied at 40 with 17 minutes left (though Florida ran away with it from there), but the Buckeyes are a lot better now than they were back then.

Still, I kinda feel like this game will reflect the rest of the Tournament... the potential to be great, but it won't quite live up to the hype. The Sports Pulse is picking Florida by 15, The Sports Flow is picking Florida, and I've got them as well. And unfortunately, I think the margin of victory will be around double digits.

My reasons:

- Corey Brewer - He shut down Arron Afflalo (when he was in the game) and will be able to do the same to Ron Lewis. The 6'4'' Lewis won't be able to many shots up over the long-armed Brewer. Also, another interesting matchup would be if Donovan decides to put Brewer on Conley for stretches... I'm not sure how well this would work, but Brewer might be able to bother Conley with his length.

- There's been some talk about Mike Conley being the best freshman PG ever... but hold on a minute. I love the guy and I think he's great, but let's not forget, he doesn't really have a jumpshot. I mean, he's still wildly effective without it, but he's better as a freshman than Magic Johnson was? Than Kenny Anderson was? His game is predicated on getting in the lane (scoring wise), and that could be tough against a great defensive duo in Noah and Horford, not to mention Brewer flying in from the wing.

- Oden will be under constant pressure defensively. Hey, Oden's great, but he's not exactly been able to avoid foul trouble all the time. With Joakim Noah, Al Horford, and Chris Richard down low for the Gators, Oden should be under constant pressure. He has to avoid the cheap fouls (the moving screen, the charge, etc) in this ballgame, and frankly, I'm not sure that he'll do it.

Add it all up, and I've got the Gators winning fairly handily. Hopefully I'm wrong and we can get a great game.

Who do you have winning it?

Rematch

Well, that sucked.

It kinda looked like a replay of last year's title game. Florida was not as dominant in this game as they were last year, but they were plenty good enough.

Really, it came down to 2 keys:
1) Arron Afflalo was a nonfactor - He scored 17 points, but that was basically all in garbage time. He picked up 2 fouls within 2 minutes, and picked up a 3rd midway through the first half shortly after Ben Howland brought him back. Josh Shipp provided enough offense to keep things interesting in the first half, but with no contributions from their first team All-America, UCLA didn't have the firepower in the 2nd half.
2) Florida hit 3-pointers - After a slow start they finished 9/22, which was a good enough. UCLA almost always doubles the post, so if you can rotate the ball quickly around the perimeter and known down shots, you can beat them. Florida wasn't hitting these shots for the first 8 or 9 minutes, but after that they were real good.

Really, that was the ballgame. UCLA didn't play awful, they were just outmanned. They took care of the ball very well (only 3 turnovers), they just couldn't get shots with Afflalo being such a nonfactor. It sucks, but it was a bad time for the starting backcourt to go 8/28 from the field and 4/15 from downtown. Congratulations Gators.


As for the OSU/Georgetown game, the Buckeyes were better when Oden was out than Georgetown was when Hibbert was out. Obviously that's not the way I thought it would go down, but it did. As is becoming a theme, Mike Conley was really good and he controlled this game. Same old.

On a final note... take a good look Buckeyes fans, because I think this will be the last game Greg Oden and Mike Conley play for Ohio St. I've always kind of been of the opinion that if one was gone, the other would be too, and this Tournament has propelled Conley (most likely) into the top-ranked PG. So with that being the case, I think he'll go, and I'm betting Oden goes with him.

Buckeyes vs. Gators Monday night. We've seen that before.

Final Four Predictions

Only a couple of days away from the Final Four, I figured it was time for my picks, so everyone can laugh at me when I'm wrong see what I think..

Florida vs. Ohio St.
This is a very interesting matchup, if only because Florida beat them so badly last year in the title game. UCLA is a better team now than they were last year, though I'm not sure that Florida is really much better (that's not a knock on Florida, they were just playing GREAT basketball last year at the end of the Tourney).

The big advantage for Florida would seem to be down low, but I don't think it's as bad for UCLA as it seems. I think Mata/Aboya will be able to defend well against Noah 1-on-1, and they will bring a double on Horford with the other post defender. That's risky because Horford is a really good passer, so it's vitally important for the Bruins guards to stay on the outside shooters, especially Humphrey.

That's why, as I wrote a few days ago, I think it's very important that UCLA gets a lot of full-court pressure on the guards and forces Donovan to maybe take Humphrey out of the game and bring in another ballhandler. This would make the kickouts from Horford less lethal and slow down the Florida offense.

So who do I pick to win? Well, if you're a regular reader you know my pick... UCLA.


Ohio St. vs. Georgetown
I think this game will boil down to whether or not Greg Oden can stay out of foul trouble. If he can, the Buckeyes can go to a zone with him as the anchor and have a shot at slowing down the Hoyas. But if Oden does get into foul trouble, I really have a hard time seeing how they'll stop Green, Hibbert, and Ewing. With the way the last few games have gone, I'm a bit skeptical that he can stay in the game.

For the Buckeyes, they'll be in the game because of Conley. He controls the pace of the game and gets everyone else shots. He can get open shots for guys like Ron Lewis, Jamar Butler, and Daequan Cook, and they've got to hit them.

But in the end, I like GEORGETOWN here, I really think that unless Oden plays extensive minutes, the Hoyas are too good offensively. Everyone can score, everyone can handle the ball, and everyone can pass well. That makes them really tough to handle.

Predicting Jim Nantz's Play on Words after the Championship Game

One of the things I most look forward to (from a trainwreck sort of perspective) is listening to what type of bad cliche or play on words Jim Nantz will come up with in the seconds after the NCAA Title game finishes. Last year he played it cool, with the phrase, "Florida - as good as it gets." Technically, this didn't really make a lot of sense to me, because Florida didn't even win their own conference during the season (meaning they weren't really as good as it gets), but I was willing to let it pass.

In the past, however, some of Nantz' work has been pretty bad (in my opinion). For instance, in 2005, when North Carolina (led by Sean May) won, Nantz said this:

It started in March, ended in April, and belonged to May.

WHAT? What does that even mean? Well, I know what it means, but how lame is that? In 1999, when Connecticut won the Title, Nantz came up with this:

UConn, you can.

That, I truly have no idea what it means. But that's beside the point. This year, I'm hoping Nantz can top himself... IE come up with something even cheesier than the May line from 2005.

So I've come up with my predictions for what he might say, and then you give your guesses in the comments. The winner gets a congratulations from me, as well as my undying respect. Now that's incentive!

If Florida wins...
- "'Noah' jokin' around - Gators are champions again."
- "'Noah problems for the Gators, they're the champions."
- "No gruff for this 'Billy' - Gators are the champions."
- "No Joakim, 'Noah' problem." (I'm covering by bases in case Noah gets hurt)

If UCLA wins...
- "How'land' do you spell championship? UCLA."
- "'Ben' there, done that - Bruins are the champions."
- "Make it a dozen, another title is 'Bruin' in Westwood."
- "UCLA, on a 'Collison' course with destiny are your champions."

If Ohio St. wins...
- "It's an ode to "Oden" - Buckeyes are the champions."
- "Put your "Buckeyes" on Ohio St. - they're the champions."

If Georgetown wins...
- "Like father, like 'Thompson' - The Hoyas are the champions."
- "By 'Georgetown,' the Hoyas are the champions."
- "Everyone else is 'Green' with envy - Georgetown is the champions."

What do you got?

The Final Four is Set

With Florida getting back to the Final Four, and Georgetown coming back to beat North Carolina, the Final Four is set. Honestly, as boring as the first round was with the lack of upsets, it has made these later rounds better, because the quality of play of been high with a lot of good teams. I expect that trend to continue, because we're going to have 4 of the 6 or 7 best teams in the NCAA playing next weekend, and I'm not sure that was the case last year.

Overall, I would say this year's Tournament has not been as exciting as last year's (then again, no Tournament I can ever remember has been as exciting as the first 4 rounds last year), but I really think this year's Final Four will be a lot more exciting than last year.

Anyway, some questions for the Final Four, of which I don't have answers now (maybe later in the week!), but I think will be interesting.

- Is UCLA more suited to play Florida than they were last year in the Tournament?
- Will UCLA doubling on the posts be enough to stop Al Horford?
- Can Lee Humphrey and Taurean Green get open shots against the backcourt of UCLA?
- Can UCLA speed up the game enough to force Billy Donovan to take out Humphrey and put in another ballhandler to handle pressure?
- Who will get the best of what should be a great Oden vs. Hibbert matchup?
- Can anyone slow down Mike Conley?
- If Greg Oden gets in foul trouble, can the Buckeyes slow down the Hoyas down low?
- Can the Hoyas make outside shots against the Ohio St. zone?

Anyway, lots more to come, but these were just a few questions that will have to be answered in the Final Four... what are you most interesting in seeing?

UCLA making a return trip to the Final Four!

First, w00t woot!!

In many wins, it wasn't a pretty win, because both teams were a little sloppy at times with the ball. However the Bruins wouldn't have it any other way, dominating the game with defense and timely shooting, and doing enough to beat a fantastic Kansas team. It was clear that no matter how deep and talented Kansas is, UCLA was the better team on Saturday.

The star of the game was Pac-10 Player of the Year Arron Afflalo, who had been in a shooting slump. He was 10-15 from the field (3-7 from downtown) for 24 points, but that doesn't even tell the whole story. At least twice he had the killer "end of shot clock" 3s... the kind where it looks like a guy is just trying to throw a desperation shot up... and then it went in. Those are spirit-breakers.

Meanwhile, Darren Collison did what he always does... he was 4/8 from the field, 2/3 from downtown, 4/4 from the line, and applied constant defensive pressure. Jay Bilas said something about how Collsion has "been every bit as good as Farmar." Well, that's a little off. Collison has been better than Farmar was. He's more efficient offensively, and he's a lot better defensively. Of course, Collison is better defensively than just about everyone.

Other kudos include to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who was very active on both ends of the floor. Then there's Josh Shipp, especially for that big 3 at the end of the half. I thought Russell Westbrook came in and brought a good spark defensively. Aboya was active on the defensive end. It was a total team effort, especially defensively.

For Kansas, take nothing away from there, because I really think they are one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the country. Mario Chalmers was everywhere defensively. Brandon Rush played a really nice game, and Julian Wright is one of the best multi-skilled players in the country. I have a feeling they'll be back next year, once again playing to get to the Final Four. Heck, even if they lose 1 or 2 guys early, they're still good enough to get back.

So in the end, it was the experience, defensive tenacity, and timely shooting that gets UCLA back to the Final Four. What a game. Now they'll just await for the winner of Florida and Oregon, and knowing UCLA and Ben Howland, they're probably hoping for revenge against Florida.

Elite 8 Preview

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to watch much of the action on Friday (though enough to say that was clearly a travel by Jeff Green), so instead I'll make some Elite 8 picks.

Ohio St. vs. Memphis
You know what, I kinda like Memphis here. I feel like people are still underrating Memphis... on ESPN Dick Vitale said something about them overachieving, but I think that's selling them short. I mean, they just beat a really good Texas A&M team in San Antonio. They didn't have a tough schedule, but this is a superb team. Memphis is really athletic, shoots the ball well, and they have size down low to play with Oden (though Dorsey has to be careful about the fouls. Ohio St. is a slight favorite, but I like Memphis right now.

Kansas vs. UCLA
You know my pick here... Kansas struggled mightily with Southern Illinois, a GREAT defensive team but only average offensive team. UCLA is another great offensive team but a little better than the Salukis offensively. But seriously, this should be an absolutely fantastic game. I'll take UCLA.

Florida vs. Oregon
Oregon can beat anyone because they are such good shooters... we know that. But, I think things will be a little harder going against Florida. The difference between Florida and Butler or Winthrop is that the Gators big men are really athletic, and can stay with guys on the perimeter and not give up open shots. That can they can score down low, especially Noah. I like Florida to get back to the Final Four.

North Carolina vs. Georgetown
This might be the most fascinating matchup of the weekend just because of the contrasting styles. North Carolina likes to run on every possession, Georgetown is a patient, half-court team. The Tar Heels have struggled this year when forced to play a halfcourt game, and Georgetown can make them do that. I like Georgetown to control the tempo, get the ball down low, and beat the Tar Heels in what should be another great game.

What are your picks?