6 Finals = The Suck

^^^ see title!

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 14

I missed the Bears/Redskins game, but here are the rest of the week 14 picks as I continue my drive for .500!

Bills (-7) over Dolphins

Rams (+6.5) over Bengals

Browns (-3) over Jets

Cowboys (-10.5) over Lions

Chiefs (+6.5) over Broncos

Raiders (+10.5) over Packers

Colts (-9) over Ravens

Jaguars (-10.5) over Panthers

Vikings (-8.5) over 49ers

Patriots (-10.5) over Steelers

Giants (+3) over Eagles

Cardinals (+7) over Seahawks

Bucs (-3) over Texans

Chargers (PK) over Titans

Saints (-4) over Falcons

Last Week: 6-9
Season: 81-87-10

Why Butler is underrated

OK, maybe it's a stretch to call a team that made the Sweet 16 last year and is currently ranked in the top 15 underrated, but I think Butler is good. Really good. Like, people know they're good, but maybe they don't know how good.

Or maybe I just like watching them play a lot and that is clouding my judgment.

No matter, trust me, they're good. They do a lot of things well that typically don't get noticed by a lot of the casual basketball fans. They are not all that athletic, they don't have high flyers, and they don't go for the spectacular play. But there are 3 things, in my mind, that they do really, really well.

- They take either high percentage of high reward shots - What I mean by this is that a lot of their shots are either layups or 3-pointers. Of course, the other part of this is that they're really good at making 3-pointers (though they probably can't continue at this 44% clip). Thus, even when they are having an off shooting night, they can usually make up for that by making a lot of 3s (just by sheer volume of shots), and getting a lot of layups (because they are so brutally efficient and good passers). That hides a lot of problems. Case in point, the Ohio St. game... they were only 9/30 from beyond the arc, but they still won the game by 19. Partly good defense, partly the fact that they got a lot of layups and still made 9 3-pointers.

- They don't turn the ball over - They have 66 turnovers in 7 games. For those math impaired, that is a little over 9 turnovers per game. That is a fantastic rate. Obviously the fact that they are maximizing the amount of possessions that they get a shot off is key. Again, this is another thing that allows them to still put points on the board when they're having off-shooting nights.

- They don't put the other team on the FT line - This year their opponents have shot less than 14 FTs per game. That's pretty good. They don't give up free points.

Obviously, they have talent at key positions and experienced players (as I have mentioned before, AJ Graves gets the most hype, but I LOVE Mike Green's game), but it is the system that allows them to excel. And these are 3 huge parts of this system. And the fact that they do these things so well is a big reason that they're going to be a big threat in March.

Heisman Trophy Prediction

Well, it's time for my rankings to be posted.

They are also up on Stiles Points, which has a nice rundown of a few bloggers picks, including mine (obviously), The Big Picture, Money Shot, Wasting Company Time, and of course the picks of Stiles himself. Really good stuff and interesting to see how the voting turned out.

Anyway, here are my top 5:

1. Tim Tebow - He's only a sophomore and his team is not in the national title hunt... two strikes against him. But the numbers are just too good to ignore. He's got a mind-boggling 51 total TDs (29 passing, 22 rushing) and nearly 4000 total yards (3132 passing, 838 rushing). Oh, and he erased any doubt that there might have been about his throwing ability, as he has completed 68.5% of his passes. The numbers are just too good for him not to be my Heisman pick.

2. Chase Daniel - He had led Missouri into the National Title Hunt (I am writing this before the Oklahoma/Missouri game). Who would have thought that would happen before the season began? He's been an extremely efficient and effective passer... nearly 4000 yards through the year, 33 TD, 9 INT, and he has completed over 70% of his passes. Not bad.

3. Darren McFadden - Perhaps the most talented player in college football. The Razorbacks have struggled at times this year, but through no fault of McFadden. He has rushed for over 1700 yards (nearly 6 YPC) and run for 15 TDs. Oh, and just for good measure he's also thrown for 4 TD passes.

4. Dennis Dixon - What could have been! If he hadn't gotten hurt then Oregon might be playing for the national title and Dixon might be the Heisman winner. Unfortunately, that did not happen, but I can't put Dixon lower than 4th. He was fantastic all year long as a dual-threat QB. The running was there as it always has been (583 yards, 9 TD), but he also became an efficient thrower, with 20 TDs, 4 INT, and completing over 2/3 of his passes.

5. Todd Reesing - If Kansas had beat Missouri he'd have a solid shot at the Heisman, but as it is he should still get some recognition for an outstanding year. In leading the resurgence of Kansas he threw for over 3200 yards, and had a fantastic 32/6 TD/INT ratio.

Who's your pick?

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 13

This week did not get off to a good start (as I picked the Packers), but I will attempt to redeem myself as I continue my drive for .500.

Browns (PK) over Cardinals

Panthers (-3) over 49ers

Broncos (-3.5) over Raiders

Jaguars (+6.5) over Colts

Jets (+1) over Dolphins

Vikings (-4) over Lions

Bucs (+3.5) over Saints

Bears (+1.5) over Giants

Eagles (-3) over Seahawks

Bengals (+7) over Steelers

Chargers (-6) over Chiefs

Falcons (+3) over Rams

Texans (+3.5) over Titans

Redskins (-5.5) over Bills

Patriots (-20) over Ravens

This Week: 0-1
Season: 75-78-10

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Packers @ Cowboys

Last week I picked the Thanksgiving games and then in the hoopla of the holiday season forgot to pick the rest... so yeah. Anyway.

At the start of the year I was not sold on the Packers as legitimate contenders. The reasons were obvious... they had no running game, and I had watched Brett Favre play the past 2-3 years, when he was just as likely to make a game-changing mistake as he was to making a big play. Plus, the Packers are my least favorite team in the world. It's true.

So when they got off to the quick start, I was just assuming that they would quickly fall back down to Earth. But then a funny thing happened... they kept winning. Now they're 10-1 and facing the Cowboys in the 2nd biggest game of the year (not that I will actually, you know, get to see it).

The Cowboys are favored by 7, and maybe for good reason. They're at home, and they've had the most explosive offense in the NFC so far this year.

But I'm going to take the Packers, not only to cover, but to win this game outright. Just a feeling. Their running game is getting better and better, the defense is fantastic (great corners, good pass rush, fast LBs). Plus, the passing game is firing on all cylinders right now. Favre is avoiding the big mistakes, the receivers are making plays after the catch.

So with that said, the Packers are my pick in this game. Hopefully it lives up to the hype.

Last Week: 2-1
Season: 75-77-10

Michael Beasley Scouting Report

I got a chance to watch Michael Beasley really closely over the weekend, which was excellent because I had obviously heard so much about him and seen the eye-popping numbers that he was putting up. Anyway, suffice to say he lived up to the hype when I watched him.

Offensively, he has the entire package. This seems fairly obviously when looking at his scoring averages, but it is completely true. He scores in a multitude of ways, and does some things that you wouldn't really expect from someone his height.

Obviously he is not a great ballhandler, but he can handle it well and is able to get past his man. For someone of his size he has a pretty solid first step. He almost seems to glide towards the basket. On one play he had the ball at the top of the key, and just blew right before his defender and had a layup before anyone could help out defensively.

He also had solid range. He can hit from the 3-point line, even when guarded. During one stretch he nailed 2 or 3 in a row from just inside the arc. Another thing I was impressed when seeing was that he drove to the hoop, but then pulled up and sunk a mid-range jumper. That's harder than it looks, and really impressive for someone of his size.

His back-to-the-basket skills are adequate at this point. I wasn't overly impressed by what I saw in that area (relatively speaking), but I suspect that he will become very good in this area with more experience.

Defensively, obviously he's helped by the fact that he is extremely athletic. But he's not always in great position and just relies on that athleticism. But again, this is another thing that I suspect will be improved with more experience. On the glass, he has great instincts going to get the rebound, and nabbing the ball at its highest point. Again, this is fairly obvious when looking at the fact that he is averaging over 15 RPG so far, but he has great instincts knowing where the ball is, and then using his superior athleticism to go and get the ball.

Anyway, that is my synopsis of Michael Beasley, likely top 3 (or more likely top 1) pick in next year's NBA Draft. Have you seen him play? Anything else you would like to add or disagree with?