Super Bowl Prediction

Yin and yang. That’s sort of the theme for this Super Bowl, because the teams seem to be complete opposites.

In the Indianapolis Colts we have a great offensive team. They are balanced and lethal, able to score on 1 play or shove a 15 play drive right down your throat. Peyton Manning seems poised to break all sorts of QB record by the time he retires, Joseph Addai is getting better and better as he gains experience, and the WR corps (led by Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne) may be the best in the NFL.

In the Chicago Bears we have a great defensive team. They are fast and relentless, able to bring the pressure or drop back and force you to make a bad throw. They are led by their MLB, Brian Urlacher, who will go down as one of the greats. They pressure the QB, their secondary makes great plays, and everyone just swarms to the ball.

So we know what we’re going to get from these two units. Which means that for the most part this game will be decided when the Bears offense is on the field. The Bears offense has been consistently inconsistent all season, led by Rex Grossman. Through a quarter of the NFL season Grossman was the NFL MVP. By the last quarter of the season fans were about split on whether or not he should still be the starter. He has physical tools, but he’s still a young guy and gets rattled and forces things when pressured.

The Colts defense was much maligned all season long but has come to play in the playoffs. In the first 2 rounds they were nearly impenetrable, and in the Conference Championship they made stops when they had to. Led by Dwight Freeney, they are a fast and athletic unit, but they have been pushed around at times.

So what does all of this mean? Well, I think the QB matchup will tell the tale. Peyton Manning has been historically good in his career while Rex Grossman is one of (if not the) worst QBs ever to make a Super Bowl. I expect the Colts fast front 7 to get to Grossman and put pressure on him, forcing him to make bad throws and get rid of it before he has to. Then I expect Manning to capitalize on those and score enough on the Bears stout defense to bring the Super Bowl to the Colts, officially getting the monkey off of Manning’s back.

I've been a pretty strong Grossman basher all season, and I still don't think he's very good. They're in the Super Bowl, but it's mostly because of the great defense and special teams, and the fact that they've found the running game here in the playoffs in a big way. If I'm wrong and Grossman wins the Super Bowl, I'll be eating my words on Monday, and you all have the right to taunt me. However, I don't think I'll be having to do that.

Colts 27-16.

Best First Year College Basketball Coaching Hires

Now that we're in the thick of the conference schedule, I thought it would be interesting to see who [so far] have been the best college basketball coaching hires from the offseason. I picked the top 5 based on what they've done so far... this is no indication on how I think they'll do in the future. Anyway, in no order...

Kelvin Sampson (Indiana) - I was planning on having Sampson on this list anyway, but then the Hoosiers really drove the point home with their win over #2 Wisconsin. The Hoosiers aren't supremely talented right now, but Sampson has them playing excellent defense. Plus, the fact that he's gotten Eric Gordon to come to Indiana next year is a big point in his favor. Things are looking up for Indiana.

One other thing about the game... what's up with Indiana fans storming the court? I know Wisconsin's an excellent team, but Indiana was ranked and playing at home? To paraphrase Doug Gottlieb, if Bobby Knight were dead he'd be rolling in his grave right now.

Bob Huggins (Kansas St.) - The Wildcats are 5-2 in the conference, 16-6 overall, and are in contention for a Tourney bid. Of course, they don't really have any quality wins yet, and their most athletic player is hurt for the season, but that's ok for now. We'll get a good chance to see what they're made in the next two games... they play at Texas, and then at Kansas.

Jeff Capel (Oklahoma) - Capel gets a slight, slight nod over Mike Anderson of Missouri for the 5th spot. I mean, these guys are competitive and Longar Longar is their leading scorer. The same Longar Longar that scored 127 points in his first 2 seasons at OU. Plus, bonus points for his building of the VCU program (more on them later). He is in a similar situation as his predecessor Kelvin Sampson is in right now... they don't have a lot of offensive talent, but they play hard defensively. Unfortunately, their offensive talent is far too low now to make a realistic run at the Tourney, but I do like Capel as a coach.

Anthony Grant (VCU) - They finally suffered a conference loss, but at 11-1 they still lead the CAA, the same conference that produced George Mason a year ago. The pieces may have been put in place by Capel, but someone's got to coach these guys. They've got a guard-oriented attack that could pose some problems for some teams. Three guards score at least 13.9 PPG.

Tony Bennett (Washington St.) - Bennett was the natural choice to replace his father after Dick Bennett left, but they should still be commended for making the choice. Bennett has brought some offense and some excitement to Pullman in his first year. Their only 3 conferences loss have come against Oregon (in OT), @ UCLA, and @ Stanford. Not bad.

Who do you think has been the best new hire?

Norm Chow - Reads and Concepts

This is from Norm Chow in 2002 (@ NC State when he had Phillip Rivers at QB): You can see that on SOME of these - he mixes 2 or even 3 concepts within 1 pass.

To better understand this post check out the BYU plays/numbers here, and compare these routes. He used these same routes at USC and NC State and still does in the NFL.

1. "QUICK GAME CONCEPT" = entire 3 step drop series ("50 SERIES") except for "4 Verticals".

2. "QUICK VERTICALS CONCEPT" = 3 step game with 4 verticals.

NOTE: "60 SERIES" = 5 step drop (SOME but very little 7).

3. "HORIZONTAL STRETCH CONCEPT"
----A) 61 Y Choice
----B) 66
----C) 64

4. "HORIZONTAL STRETCH - RUB CONCEPT"
----A) 62 = MESH ROUTES

5. "DEEP HORIZONTAL STRETCH CONCEPT"
----A) 67

6. "DEEP HORIZONTAL STRETCH - HI/LO CONCEPT"
----A) 68 = SMASH )

7. "VERTICAL STRETCH - HI/LO CONCEPT"
----A) 63

8. "FLOOD - OBLIQUE - HI/LO CONCEPT"
----A) 65

9. "HI/LO - OBLIQUE STRETCH CONCEPT"
----A) 69

These passes (the "50 Series", and "61 thru 69") were the same he used at BYU

He was also experimenting with things he called:

A) "HORIZONTAL - TRIANGLE STRETCH CONCEPT"
B) "HI/LO - RUB CONCEPT"
C) "SNEAK - RUB - HI/LO CONCEPT"

THESE (ABOVE) were used on some "TAGS" that aren't in the base passes listed above (WHICH CAN BE FOUND IN JUST ABOUT ANY OF HIS BYU BOOKS).

The QB READS on the "60 Series" (his "bread & butter") were:

NORM CHOW POST SNAP READS – “60 SERIES”

“61 Y OPTION” – 5 step drop. Eye T.E. and throw it to him unless taken away from the outside by S/S (then hit Z), OR inside by ILB (then hit FB). Don’t throw option route vs. man until receiver makes eye contact with you. Vs. zone – can put it in seam. Vs. zone – no hitch step. Vs. man – MAY need hitch step.

“62” - MESH – 5 step drop. Take a peek at F/S – if he’s up hit Z on post. Otherwise watch X-Y mesh occur – somebody will pop open – let him have ball. Vs. zone – throw to Fullback.

“63” - DOUBLE-IN (split end post, Y-10 yard in, Z-15-18yd dig) – 5 step drop and hitch (7 steps permissible). Read F/S: X = #1; Z = #2; Y OR HB = #3.

“64” – SPEED OUTS - 5 step drop. Key best located Safety on 1st step. Vs. 3 deep look at F/S – if he goes weak – go strong (Z = #1 to FB = #2 off S/S); if he goes straight back or strong – go weak (X = #1 to HB = #2 off Will LB). Vs. 5 under man – Y is your only choice. Vs. 5 under zone – X & Z will fade.

“65” – Y-SAIL/STRONG FLOOD - 5 step drop and hitch. Read the S/S. Peek at Z #1; Y = #2; FB = #3. As you eyeball #2 & see color (F/S flash to Y) go to post to X. Vs. 2 deep zone go to Z = #1 to Y = #2 off S/S.

“66” – ALL-CURL- 5 step drop and hitch. On your first step read Mike LB (MLB or first LB inside Will in 3-4). If Mike goes straight back or strong – go weak (X = #1; HB = #2). If Mike goes weak – go strong (Y = #1; Z = #2; FB = #3). This is an inside-out progression. NOT GOOD vs. 2 deep 5 under.

“67” – 3-VERTICAL/DOUBLE CORNERS- 5 step drop and hitch. Read receiver (WR) rather than defender (Corner). Vs. 2 deep go from Y = #1 to Z = #2. Vs. 3 deep read same as “64” pass (Will LB) for X = #1 or HB = #2. Equally good vs Cover 2 regardless if man OR zone under.

“68 SMASH” – SMASH - 5 step drop and hitch. Vs. 2 deep look HB = #1; FB = #2 (shoot); Z = #3. Vs. 3 deep – stretch long to short to either side. Vs. man – go to WR’s on “returns”.

“69 HB OPTION” – Y-SAIL - 5 step drop - hitch up only if you need to. Eye HB: HB = #1; Y = #2. QB & receiver MUST make eye contact vs. man. Vs. zone – receiver finds seam (takes it a little wider vs. 5 under). Only time you go to Y is if Will LB and Mike LB squeeze HB. If Will comes & F/S moves over on HB – HB is “HOT” and will turn flat quick and run away from F/S. Otherwise HB runs at his man to reinforce his position before making his break.

NOTE: BLITZ AUDIBLES IN “60 SERIES” when we want “Y” to enter in protection on widest rusher (S/S or OLB) his side: “MAX PRO”.

1. “67 Stay”
2. “63 Stay” – gives X on post if F/S lines up strong on Y.
3. “62 Stay” – gives Z on post if F/S aligns weak on HB.

The O.J. Mayo Incident

Not sure if this is big news yet or not, but apparently there was a little incident involving one of the top prospects in all of high school basketball, OJ Mayo, and a referee in one of Mayo's games.

Mayo had a pretty nice dunk, then got a technical foul for taunting afterwards. After a little discussion with the referees, Mayo was given a second technical for running his mouth a bit and was ejected from the game.

As you can guess, things didn't end there. Mayo then followed the ref over to the scorer's table, and the two bumped lightly. Or at least that's what it looked like. However the referee took quite a tumble, much to the disbelief of Mayo.

You have to watch the video for yourself, but there are 2 possibilities here:

(1) The refs feet got tangled with Mayo, which could not be seen on camera
OR
(2) The ref is the worst actor in the world.

You decide:

Pittsburgh defeats Villanova

In a fairly entertaining game, #7 Pittsburgh defeated Villanova 65-59, improving to 20-3 on the year. Some random thoughts I had on the game:

- Pittsburgh has an excellent record and a good team, but I just don't see them as a Final Four team. They are the class of the Big East, but I don't think they'll match up well against the elite of the NCAA. They are fundamentally sound, well coached, and talented, but I just don't see the Final Four in their future.

- I don't want to be all negative on Pittsburgh, because they did win, and they're very good. Two guys I really like (aside from the obvious Aaron Gray) are Levance Fields and Levon Kendall.

Fields is just a very solid PG. He's tough, he's a good shooter, and he will get up in your face defensively. He scored 20 points today, but I really like his decision-making. Only 2 assists, but one turnover. Plus, he passes the very subjective, "I think this is a guy that will take over at the end of games" test. Subjective, but important. To me at least.

Kendall is the glue guy. The numbers weren't impressive... 6 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists. But he just does a little bit of everything. He's solid at both ends and just fits in nicely with Pitt's other threats.

- For Villanova, Curtis Sumpter is still definitely not right. The numbers weren't bad... 21 points, 9 rebounds... but his shot just looks flat right now. He was 4/15 from the field, 1/5 from downtown, and frankly missed some shots badly. They need him to get healthy from the shin bruise and hamstring tightness.

- If Sumpter is healthy, I like Villanova to make the Tourney and possibly have the chance to win a game or two. They have depth inside with Sumpter, Will Sheridan, Shane Clark, and Dante Cunningham. They have a great shooter in Mike Nardi. They have a great finisher in Scottie Reynolds. And they have a great coach in Jay Wright. They are only 14-7 (and 3-5 in the conference), but I think they will make the Tourney.

What are your thoughts on the teams?

What? No Football?

That's right, for the first Sunday in about 5 months, there was no football. Which usually just means that we're getting towards the heart of the basketball season, which is ok by me. So after a full weekend of college basketball, here's my top storylines:

- Punch Stanford's ticket to the Big Dance. It was a pretty good weekend for the Cardinal. On Thursday Stanford handled USC by 15. On Sunday, they overcame a 17 point first half deficit to beat the #3 ranked UCLA, 75-68. It helped that all of UCLA's big men were in foul trouble, which made them almost useless as far as scoring. Arron Afflalo and Darren Collison combined for 39 points, but it wasn't enough to beat Stanford and their hot shooting in the 2nd half. With a signature win like this to up their record to 14-5 (6-3 in conference), Stanford has to be looking good as far as the NCAA Tournament goes, at least at this point.

- LSU, welcome to the bubble. After their 3rd straight loss, LSU is now 13-7 overall, 2-4 in the SEC. Their non-conference victory against Texas A&M is excellent, but their other big win (against Alabama) is looking less impressive by the day. I guess they've missed Darrel Mitchell a little more than everyone thought they would.

- Maybe next year Connecticut. Another Big East loss for them drops them to 13-7 and 2-5 in the conference. But the record isn't as telling as the fact that their best win this year is against St. John's. Their 2nd best win is against either Ole Miss or South Florida, depending on your opinion of the two teams. If the regular season ended right now Connecticut wouldn't make the Big East Tournament.

- Arizona actually might not be that good. North Carolina just annihilated Arizona on Saturday. I know Marcus Williams got hurt and didn't play in the second half. But in the defense of UNC, neither Brandan Wright or Marcus Ginyard did not play at all. The Tar Heels abused Arizona on both ends of the court... offensively they shot over 50% and scored 92 points. Defensively, they forced 20 Arizona turnovers and the Wildcats were 1/23 from downtown. Arizona has not lost 4 of 5 and 5 of 7. If things don't get turned around, they could find themselves on the bubble, surprising as that may have sounded at the start of the year.

- Aaron Brooks, Player of the Year candidiate. After a huge game against an underrated WaSu club, Brooks is averaging 19 points, 4 assists, and 4 rebounds per game for the upstart Ducks, who are now tied atop the Pac-10 standings. Certainly the top 2 candidates are Alando Tucker and Kevin Durant, but that sound you hear might be Aaron Brooks creeping into the race.

What were your thoughts from the weekend?

The Dick Bavetta vs. Charles Barkley Saga

For quotes and video, go to the Charles Barkley vs. Dick Bavetta Wrapup.

Awful Announcing has been all over this from the beginning, but I thought it'd be good to get some of the videos from this in one place. If you haven't heard anything about this... well, just watch the videos and that will explain it.

Charles Barkley challenges Dick Bavetta:



Dick Bavetta accepts Charles Barkley's challenge:



And finally, Kevin Garnett weighs in on the matter:



All I can say is I really, really hope this does take place over the All-Star Break, because it would be awesome. Maybe the best comment on all of this did not come from Charles Barkley but from Ernie Johnson, who asked Barkley:

"Answer me one question... which hamstring are you going to grab at when you fall behind and have to pull up?"