Celtics Survive Game 2

Wow. First off, obviously I did not see the Celtics being up 2-0 coming. If I had bet on the NBA Finals, I would be in bad shape right now. Fortunately, I stick to just talking about the games. And after being a bit of a bore for most of the game, the Lakers made things interesting before succumbing the Boston. I was actually going to stop watching without about 8 minutes to go, but with the effort that the Lakers were still exerting (even down 24) I decided to stick around, and almost witnesses something awesome. Obviously I had no inkling that LA would eventually make it a 2 point game, but it goes to their credit that they continued to exert maximum effort. But the result of all of it is that Boston leads 2-0.

How have they done it? Well, obviously defense has been huge. Up until the 4th quarter of Game 2, they had frustrated Kobe Bryant just like they did in the regular season, and nobody else was really picking up the slack. But then again, we knew going on that the Celtics were the best defensive team in the NBA, and their help defense was great. The big reason that Boston is up 2-0 and in control of the series is because they have been so good offensively, which is what I did not expect.

Boston shot 53% in Game 2 and got to the foul line 38 times. Those are winning numbers. For as bad as they looked against Cleveland offensively, they have turned things around quite nicely. They are getting out and picking up the tempo (which we thought the Lakers would be doing), and Rondo is running the break like a seasoned pro. Rondo considers to be extraordinarily effective considering he does not have a jumpshot. 16 assists, 6 rebounds, and constant solid defense? That's more than enough to make up for only 4 points on 1-4 shooting.

The other big thing for the Celtics was the play of the bigs of the bench. Once again, PJ Brown was just solid. He knows his role and his game so well... hit open midrange jumpers, and always be in the right place defensively. He's been monumental for Boston. The reason Boston is so great defensively is because of their help defense, and Brown is the epitome of that. He's always in the right position to help on guys driving to the hoop, or to take charges. Then, of course, there is Leon Powe. His aggressiveness on the offensive end was big in the first half, when the Lakers jumped out to a quick start. Just taking a look at his numbers - 21 points in 15 minutes. Leon Powe might never play a better game in his life.

For the Lakers, they have to figure out how to slow Boston down, and to decrease the disparity in free throw attempts. As noted, Boston took 38 compared to LA's 10. It doesn't take a basketball mastermind to know that you're not going to win a lot of games with a 28 free throw attempt difference. The easy answer is to say that LA needs to be more aggressive and take it to the hoop more, but Boston's defense makes that a tough proposition.

Obviously I have to stick with my prediction of LA to win the series, but it goes without saying that Game 3 is a must-win for the Lakers. At home, with the momentum of a near comeback, they need to get out to a good start in game 3 and exert control over things in LA.

Just a final note, and I know that the refs not calling traveling is a bit of a running joke in the NBA, but come on, how do you not call that travel by Vladimir Radmanovic on the fast break dunk that cut the lead to 104-100? I actually really don't have a problem with them letting borderline travels go, but Vlad Rad's travel there was rather egregious, and on a fast break to boot. It definitely helped the entertainment factor that nothing was called, but he blatantly travelled on a fast break. Got to be called.

Final final note, but Jeff Van Gundy making fun of Mark Jackson for comparing Leon Powe to Dr. J was the highlight of the game for me in terms of the announcers. I had a good laugh. Bravo Jeff Van Gundy.

2008 NBA Finals Prediction

Time to give my prediction for the NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers!

While both teams are pretty evenly matched, I like Los Angeles to win this series based on the matchup advantages they have. First, Boston has nobody really to match up with Kobe Bryant. Paul Pierce has done a very good job defensively this postseason, but he is simply not the player that Kobe Bryant is. Look for Bryant to exert himself, especially late and in close games, which is a huge edge in their favor. In so many of these closely-matched series', the team that has the best player wins, and Kobe Bryant is the best player in this series.

Up front, I think LA has the edge with their athleticism. While Kevin Garnett can match up well with either Lamar Odom or Pau Gasol, I think it will be much tougher for Kendrick Perkins to match up with them. They are both athletic big men that can get up and down the court. Plus, they are both skilled with the basketball, and I'm not sure how effective of a defender Perkins is 15 feet from the basket. I look for LA to exploit that.

Lastly, the Lakers have a huge coaching edge. Phil Jackson is one of the best coaches of all-time, looking for his NBA record 10th Title. Doc Rivers was on the chopping block as recently as the end of last season, as many Celtics fans openly pined for his firing. Look for Jackson to exploit the Lakers advantages. So I think the Lakers will be victorious in this game. I like the teams to split the first 2 in Boston, and the Lakers to take the next 3 at home.

Lakers in 5.

What's your pick?

2008 NBA Mock Draft

Here is my first edition of a mock draft for 2008!

1. Chicago Bulls - Derrick Rose (Memphis)
Beasley seems to be a better fit, as the Bulls need a low-post scorer, but I simply think Derrick Rose is the better player. He's unstoppable in the open court, and if he ever develops a consistent jumpshot, he looks like a stronger version of Chris Paul (without quite the passing ability). Plus, John Paxson always emphasizes defense, and Derrick Rose has a much higher ceiling as a defender than Michael Beasley.

2. Miami Heat - Michael Beasley (Kansas St.)
Rose is the guy they really want, but Beasley sure is a nice consolation. He's NBA ready both on the offensive end and rebounding the basketball, and should be able to step into a lineup right away. Beasley will have his struggles on the offensive end, but a trio of Wade-Marion-Beasley would be a real good start in Miami.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves - Brook Lopez (Stanford)
With Lopez, the Timberwolves would be setting themselves up to have one of the best offensive frontlines in the NBA. They already have improving Al Jefferson, and Brook Lopez has great touch around the basket. Lopez does not have great athleticism, but he's big and is refined in his post moves around the basket. That could warrant a top 3 pick.

4. Seattle Supersonics - Jerryd Bayless (Arizona)
Seattle already had a nice core from last year's draft, and Bayless would be another great piece. He's a PG in the mold of a guy like Gilbert Arenas, in that he is really quick off the dribble and is a deadeye shooter. He is 19 and Kevin Durant is 20, so that would be a potent 1-2 combo for years.

5. Memphis Grizzlies - OJ Mayo (USC)
The Grizzlies could go with a big man here, but I like them to go with an off guard in OJ Mayo to create an immensely talented young backcourt, teaming him up with Mike Conley (and then ideally dealing Javaris Crittenton or Kyle Lowry). Mayo has great range on his shot (which makes him a good complement to Conley), but can also score off the dribble, and showed surprising leadership ability in his one year with USC.

6. New York Knicks - Danilo Gallinari (Italy)
According to reports, Gallinari is a 6'10'' forward with PG skills. He can handle the ball, create his own shot (either off the drive or with his back to the basket), hit from 3-point range, and he's a good passer. Sounds like a perfect fit for D'Antoni's system.

7. Los Angeles Clippers - Russell Westbrook (UCLA)
With the PG position unsettled in LA, Westbrook is a nice fit to stay in town and join the Clippers. While he hasn't played full-time at PG very much, he showed he has the skills to do it last year. He's solid handling the ball, he's a very good passer, and he has the athleticism required. He's very tough defensively both on the ball and in the passing lanes. He needs to develop a more consistent jump shot, but that was coming along as the year went. With his athleticism, he is great on the fast break.

8. Milwaukee Bucks - Eric Gordon (Indiana)
Gordon is a great scoring combo guard. With Gordon, the Bucks could look to unload Michael Redd and his large contract. Gordon can score in a variety of ways, as he showed by leading the Big 10 in scoring as a freshman.

9. Charlotte Bobcats - Anthony Randolph (LSU)
Looking for more athleticism, the Bobcats can look to young, but very talented and athletic Randolph. He's in the mold of a Brandan Wright from last year in that he needs to bulk up and improve his midrange game, but he appears to have the talent to do that. He averaged over 15 and 8 in his rookie campaign, and with over 2 blocks per game, showed that his athleticism can allow him to do some things defensively.

10. New Jersey Nets - Kevin Love (UCLA)
With athleticism all around, the Nets can take Love, who provides an NBA ready, polished game. He'll never be a star because of his athletic limitations, but he's an extremely intelligent player, great passer, rebounder, and showed a nice jumpshot last season.

11. Indiana Pacers - DJ Augustin (Texas)
The Pacers are really pretty bad at PG, so Augustin is the natural pick here. He's not the most athletic PG in the draft, but he's quick enough. He is crafty enough to get his own shot, he's a very good shooter, and he can get them into their offense and get playmakers the ball (as he showed when he played Kevin Durant). This seems like a logical pick for Indiana if Augustin is still on the board.

12. Sacramento Kings - DeAndre Jordan (Texas A&M)
Jordan is extremely raw, but his athletic ability is too much to pass up. He has a long way to go, as he showed by not having a huge impact in his year at College Station (8 PPG, 6 RPG), but with his great ability, he projects to be a solid scorer, excellent rebounder and shot blocker.

13. Portland Trailblazers - Joe Alexander (West Virginia)
With the Blazers looking to make a run at the playoffs next season, Alexander is a guy that could come in and give them quality minutes right away. He's not very good defensively, but he has an advanced offensive game and can score in a variety of ways. He's sneakily athletic, has a great jump shot with lots of range, and showed he can carry a team for stretches.

14. Golden State Warriors - Donte Greene (Syracuse)
Greene looks like a great fit for Nellie ball. He's a 3/4 combo guy that can stretch the floor with his outside shot. He's great in the midrange, and shot nearly 35% from downtown in his one season for the Orange. He looks like he could develop into a very solid rebounder with his athleticism and leaping ability, as he averaged over 7 per game. He might not be ready to play a lot of minutes right away, but he should be able to contribute some with his varied skills.

What are your thoughts? What would you change around?

NBA Conference Finals Predictions

We're down to the final four teams in the NBA playoffs, and we have some relatively power matchups. Let's cut out the pretext and just get to the predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

With Boston and Detroit, we have to the two teams that have been a cut above the rest of the conference all season long. Detroit, of course, are veterans at this Conference Finals thing, having been here for the last 5 seasons. Boston is coming off of a season in which they won 24 games and replaced 60% of their starters, so they're not quite so experienced with the Conference Finals. But no matter, as Boston is the favorite heading into the series.

But there has been a big development for Boston which makes them appear a lot more vulnerable than they looked in the regular season... Ray Allen got really old, really fast. He was a virtual non-factor against Cleveland, even sitting out for the majority of the 4th quarter of Game 7. He wasn't hitting shots, he wasn't getting open looks consistently, and he could not create his own shot. Without him, does Boston have the offense to get past Detroit? Especially with defensive stalwart Tayshaun Prince guarding Paul Pierce?

I do think the importance of Rajon Rondo will be magnified in this series. Against Cleveland, his defensive skills were not as important, because the Cavs obviously do not have a great offensive PG. However, Rondo will be asked to slow down Chauncey Billups, and his success or failure will be a large determinant of this series. As it stands, I'll go with the more talented Billups, and ergo, the Pistons. The Boston that I watched struggle to handle Cleveland does not have the offensive firepower to hang with Detroit.

PISTONS IN 6


WESTERN CONFERENCE

We have two legitimately great teams in this series, with the Lakers taking on the Spurs. The Lakers have been the most impressive team in the postseason so far, dispatching the Nuggets in 4 and the Jazz in 6. Meanwhile, the Spurs impressively beat Phoenix in 5 games before outlasting the Hornets in 7.

Both teams are extremely well-coached, fundamentally sound, and talented. That's usually means we should have a pretty nice series on our hands. I would guess that Bruce Bowen will start on Kobe Bryant, which will be the key matchup in the series. Though the Lakers certainly have other options on the floor, they still look to Kobe to get the offense going, both with his scoring and drawing of defenders.

When the Spurs have the ball, the key matchup will be how Derek Fisher guards Tony Parker. The Spurs obviously have Duncan and Ginobili, but the key to the offense is Tony Parker hitting his 18-footers. When Parker is hitting the jumpshot (predominately off of the pick & roll and kickouts from Duncan), the Spurs become very, very difficult to stop.

This should be a classic series between two great teams. In this case, I'll go with the proven commodity... seems like the Spurs are on a mission.

SPURS IN 7

What are your thoughts?

"With no regard for human life!"

Thank you Kevin Harlan. I love that PBP call.

Anyway, Cavs tied the series up 2-2. My first question... the Celtics won 66 games this year? Really? For the second straight game, Boston just looked absolutely abominable offensively, with no flow, and nobody stepping up and making shots. They shot just 38.6% for the game, and only 3/14 from downtown.

None of the big 3 look like they're able to take over a game offensively... KG is far too passive, Paul Pierce has struggled, and Ray Allen continues to be almost a non-factor in this series (other than 1 quarter in this game). The difference between those guys and LeBron is that even when LeBron isn't shooting well, he is still such an incredible passer that he gets tons of open looks for other guys. Boston's three stars don't do that. So while James was again awful shooting the ball, his 13 assists were enough to propel Cleveland into a series-tying victory.

This series should also have put to rest any doubt in the Kevin Garnett vs. Tim Duncan debate. Both great players, but Duncan is a different player in the playoffs and in the 4th quarter. I know the supporting casts over their careers have been vastly different, but change them up and I don't think Garnett would have 4 rings.

As we have seen in the playoffs, home court has been huge, and as Charles Barkley has been saying, things go from game to game... so it will be interesting to see if Boston can get some offensive flow again back in Boston.

The impact of Jared Allen

My life was super busy around draft time, so I never really got a chance to comment on any of the happenings (much thanks to Steve F. for his excellent post on the draft)... plus, since the Vikings didn't have a first-round choice, I didn't feel as strong of a need to comment on things.

However, I'm quite ok with the Vikings not having a first-round pick, since it allowed them to acquire the NFL's sack leader in 2007, shoring up their biggest defensive weakness, which is consistently getting to the QB with the Front 4.

For the past couple of seasons, the Vikings have had a lot of trouble stopping the pass. When people hear that, they generally assume that this is because of a porous secondary. Not that the Vikings secondary is all-world, but I never really saw that as the main reason. In my mind, there are two big reasons why they have struggled so much against the pass:

- They were so dominant against the run that people just didn't try. This is fairly obvious and has been beaten to death, but a couple of years ago, the Patriots came into the Metrodome for a Sunday night game, and they came out and literally threw the ball on about their first 20 offensive plays. This sorta provided the blueprint, and teams have simply been following it ever since.

- They could never have a consistent pass rush on the Line. Pat Williams is a man against the run, but he's not going to be putting consistent pressure on the QB. Kevin Williams is great, but facing constant double teams on the inside. Which should have, in theory, left lots of room for the DEs to operate, but it didn't always work that way. The hodgepodge of guys like Brian Robison, Ray Edwards, Kenechi Udeze, Darrion Scott, etc. are all average at best (at least, at this point in their careers) at getting to the QB. Even with 1-on-1 matchups, there was never a consistent rush of any type for the front 4. Which means 1 of 2 things happened: either the Vikings had to bring pressure from the LBs which opened things up in the passing game, or the secondary had to cover guys for a really long time. Neither is optimal.

So, of course, it's not hard to see how much of an impact Jared Allen will bring to the Vikings defense. He's one of (if not the) best pass rushers in the NFL, and he's not going to slow down the run defense either. Offensive teams will have a real tough time figuring out how to block the Vikings Line... they'll feature 3 All-Pros... 3 guys that could legitimately get double teamed if they weren't playing with the other two. On the opposite side, Ray Edwards and Brian Robison both seem to be developing into solid pass rushers, and should benefit from the increased attention that teams will have to pay Jared Allen.

So with Allen the Vikings should continue to be dominant against the run while improving them greatly against the pass. His pressure off the edge will keep QBs up at night, and it will hide any problems in the secondary because they won't have to cover as long.

For years, the Vikings have been searching for a dominant pass rushing DE, expending first round pick after first round pick on them. Now, it appears as if they finally have their man in Jared Allen. With his past, it's certainly a risk. The financial commitment is large. But when you look at his potential impact on the defense and on the franchise, giving up only a first round pick and 2 third rounders seems like a bargain.

Watching this video, I have only one thought... is it football season yet?

The 5 Best Second Day Picks. Plus, Random Draft Thoughts

With the 2008 NFL Draft in the books, I would be remiss if I didn't offer up some thoughts from one of my favorite sporting events of the year.

1. People saying that the Kansas City Chiefs are the big winners is like saying the 1927 Yankees were OK at baseball. But of course they were going to be, they had the 5th pick and they got 17 from the Vikings, plus a pair of 3rd rounders. In order for them to mess up this draft they would have had to be absolutely dumb.

2. Kudos to the Baltimore Ravens. As soon as Matt Ryan came off the board the Ravens identified that they wanted Joe Flacco, and then correctly determined they could trade down and still get their guy. Give huge credit to Ozzie Newsome for getting two extra mid rounders and still grabbing who I think will end up being the best QB out of this draft.

3. On the flip side the Carolina Panthers gave up everything but the farm in order to move up to draft Jeff Otah. Otah had better be a perennial pro bowler, because not only did Carolina give up a lot this year, they gave up next year's first rounder. The future is now in Charlotte, or it had better be.

Alright, on to the top 5 second day picks / undrafted free agents: (In no particular order)

1. Owen Schmitt, FB, 163 overall to Seattle
Maybe the fiercest competitor in all of college football this past season, Schmitt could perhaps be best known for this. But in addition to that Schmitt is a tremendous blocker who will clear the path for whomever Seattle has getting the majority of the carries this season, presumably Julius Jones. Schmitt also will be able to catch the ball out of the backfield.

2. John David Booty, QB, 137 overall to Minnesota
Vikings fans everywhere cheered when the Booty pick was announced. It's been said that Booty will be watching the 2008 season, but in my opinion if Tarvaris Jackson is struggling, Booty needs to be in there by week 5 at the latest. The Vikings have the best running back in football, the number one run defense, and a should-be improved pass defense. All they are missing is competent quarterback play. Booty is perhaps the most accurate passer of this draft class, and since the Vikings run a west coast offense, his lack of arm strength isn't a huge concern.

3. Marcus Henry, WR, 171 overall to NY Jets
Henry amassed over 1,000 receiving yards in his senior season at Kansas. Some of that is due to the pass happy offense the Jayhawks employ, but a lot of it has to do with Henry's talent. At just a shade under 6'4", Henry should be a force on jump balls, and though he is listed as a 4.5 40 yard dash, Henry repeatedly ran away from corners and safeties this year. I see Henry eventually becoming a very good third receiver, and possibly a starter in the NFL.

4. Mike Dragosavich, P, Undrafted to New England
Yes, a punter. Field position is important, and this allows the Patriots to get good punting for the league minimum. The Pats are the best team in football at saving money wherever they can, and this is no different. Had he qualified, Dragosavich would have led D-1AA the past three seasons in punting. He has a booming leg.

5. Caleb Campbell,S, 218 overall to Detroit
A great story who was profiled on Sunday, Campbell only runs a 4.57, a little slow for a safety. However, he is tough and hard nosed, and should be able to contribute on special teams right away, and in time could be an outside linebacker who is adept at stopping the run. The former Army Black Knight now can focus on playing football, rather than risking his life overseas. A huge standing ovation goes out from me both to Campbell and to the Detroit Lions.

Coming this weekend will be a post on a perhaps controversial topic (although not on the whole Bob Costas HBO thingy, you can check every other website in existence for that), but first, what are your NFL Draft thoughts?