NBA Summer League Thoughts

I don't put too much stock into the NBA Summer League... case in point, the much talked about play of Duncan vs. Ostertag in Duncan's first summer league game, but it's still interesting to look at. The fact that Oden was a non-factor in his 2 games or that Kevin Durant shot so poorly wouldn't really concern me or make me any less optimistic about their future. But still, the results aren't completely realistic. Some thoughts of mine:

- Word is that Tyrus Thomas had a great showing in Summer League, and might even be able to challenge for a starting spot next season. Going into last season's draft I thought Thomas had more potential than anyone else, and he showed off that athleticism and talent in the Detroit series this year. He'll make the Bulls defense a little better this year with his shot blocking ability near the rim.

- Marcus Banks scored 42 points in his lone summer league game... to quote Bill Simmons: "The best part of that game was new Suns GM Steve Kerr frantically making DVD copies of the game to send to the other NBA GM's. "Hey guys? He's available!""

The Suns are one of the most well-run organizations in the NBA, but selling off a first-round pick that could have been Marcus Williams or Rajon Rondo only to pick up Marcus Banks later that offseason has to be one of the worst personnel moves made by anyone in the past couple of years in the NBA.

- LaMarcus Aldridge only played 2 summer league games, but here were his per game averages: 21 points, 11 rebounds, 3 blocks, 32 minutes. Yeah, Oden and Aldridge is going to make quite a front line in Portland.

- Another young big that was impressive was Amir Johnson... 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game. He might be a candidate to start in the middle for Detroit next season.

- Toby Bailey is still around and playing? If you don't remember (and you probably don't), Bailey was a starter on the 1995 UCLA championship game. He hasn't played in the NBA since 2000. Talk about a blast from the past.

- Marcus Williams for the Nets played well, averaging 16 points, 6 assists, and about 4 rebounds per game during summer league. I was huge on him before last year's draft, and I still love his potential. He may not get the chance to show it playing behind Jason Kidd, but he's got a lot of talent.

- Lots of good things to say about Rodney Stuckey... that's why I had him 13th on my board.

Do you pay any attention to the Summer Leagues at all?

MLB Power Rankings - 7/16

Like the last wildly popular version, it's time for another set of rankings of my top 10 teams in the MLB. Or in other words, nothing much else is going on in sports right now.

1. Boston Red Sox - Just barely retain the top spot, but they still have a comfortable 9 game lead in the AL East. But I still think the Yankees might have a little something to say by the end of the season, but things are still looking very good in Boston.

2. Detroit Tigers - They have scored almost 50 more runs than the next highest team (Cleveland), and the pitching is pretty solid too. They're "only" 25-19 at home, but a fantastic 29-17 on the road. Once Zumaya comes back to shore up the bullpen they're probably the team to be in the American League.

3. Cleveland Indians - Their offense hasn't been quite as explosive as the Tigers, but it's still pretty darn good. Unlike Detroit, they're a pedestrian 21-24 on the road, but a remarkable 33-13 at home, best in the Majors.

4. Anaheim Angels - The Angels are actually tied with the Red Sox for the best record in the Majors, though I think it's been a little flukey. Still, they're a really solid team and look like the overwhelming favorites in the AL West. The Mariners might have a shot if they make a couple of moves, but the A's don't look very good right now after getting swept by the Twins.

5. San Diego Padres - They have falled behind the Dodgers right now in the NL West, but I do still think they will come out on top. They have the best pitching in the League, and have been a little unlucky. It looks like the NL West will be one of the best races between the Dodgers and Padres.

6. Los Angeles Dodgers - They have started off great since the Break, moving into the lead in the NL West. They are a great 19-10 in 1-run games, which tends to even out, which is why I'm a little more optimistic about the Padres than the Dodgers. But if Saito and Broxton can continue to shut the door at the end of ballgames the Dodgers should be in great position.

7. Milwaukee Brewers - They're probably looking over their shoulders at the Cubs a little bit (especially if the Ben Sheets injury is serious), but they've survived a mini stumble (with the Cubs playing very well) and are still up 3.5 games. If Sheets is OK, Yovani Gallardo should remain in the rotation, bumping either Jeff Suppan or Chris Capuano.

8. Minnesota Twins - After a 4-game sweep of the A's, the Twins are only 6 games behind the Tigers in the Central. If the young pitchers (Bonser, Garza, Baker) can continue to give them quality starts, they are a serious threat in the AL. They've still got the best pitcher in baseball and a very good middle of the order.

9. New York Yankees - They're just a game over .500, but no team has been more unlucky with regards to what their record is and what their pythagorean record is. They have issues in the bullpen, but the rotation is starting to come together (especially if Phillip Hughes can remain healthy).

10. Chicago Cubs - The Cubs have won 3 in a row and are 7-3 in their last 10, which have made them into a threat in the NL Central and possibly even a factor in the Wildcard race. Don't look now, but Carlos Marmol has been one of the best relievers in the MLB this year.

What are your thoughts?

Hodge Podge

There were a few things I wanted to write about, but none of them were enough by themselves for a column... so I figured the best choice would be to combine them all into a hodge podge type thing.

- First, a little bit of housecleaning. I had a little interview over at Green Bay Railbird Central, which can be found here. As you may be able to guess from the name of the site, they were mostly looking for a Vikings fan's take on the Packers right now... just served as another reminder that the start of the NFL regular season is only like 2 months away! YES!

- Also had an interview over at The Sports Flow about a week ago, which was nice. I'm just glad I can be an inspiration to someone for something.

- Getting into other news, you probably saw that Rashard Lewis was sent to the Magic as part of a sign-and-trade and will make roughly $126 million over the next 7 years. That's ridiculous. Rashard is a real nice player, but are you kidding me? He's a good scorer, and he's still in his prime, but this is a bit absurd. Let's just say if I had Rashard Lewis' agent I'd probably have a gig writing for the Magic's website for $3 million a year.

- The Lewis deal allowed Darko Milicic to become a free agent, and he signed with the Grizzlies for what is believed to be $21 million over 3 years. Seems sort of moderate risk, high reward deal for the Grizz. Darko certainly has the physical tools to be a very good big man, the question is whether or not he's going to display the work ethic and effort every night in order to do that. If he does, he's a bargain. If not, he'll be a bit overpaid.

- One of the most interesting subplots (to me at least) of the free agency period is seeing where Andray Blatche winds up. He's the 20 year-old forward for the Wizards with lots of upside. There was talk that if he had been in this draft, he might have gone in the Lottery. Interesting to see if some team offers him the full midlevel, and if the Wizards would match it.

- There's also been talk that Ichiro will be re-upping with the Mariners for $100 million over 5 years. From a baseball standpoint, he'll be overpaid. He's a really good hitter, but he doesn't walk a ton and one of his best strengths (his speed) tends to go quickly with age. On the other hand, he generates a ton of revenue for the Mariners, and they basically didn't have any choice but to sign him for big money.

What else has caught your eye?

Thursday Debate: Who is the best CF ever?

We have a little feature on here called Thursday Debate... today we look at who is the best CF ever?

With all the talk over the All-Star break from guys like Joe Morgan and Dusty Baker about how Willie Mays is the best player ever (or at least the best living player), it begs the question, is he even the best CF ever? He was great, but it's not like he's without competition here.

The way I see it, there are 3 candidates for the title of the best CF ever: Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, and Mickey Mantle. In a perfect world, Negro Leaguer Oscar Charleston would deserve a mention as well, but it's just impossible to compare.

So it's between Mays, Mantle, and Cobb. First, a look at Willie Mays, perhaps the premier defensive player ever. The "Say Hey Kid" was also very consistent at the plate, and stayed consistent for a long time, which is how he wound up with 660 HR. His OPS+ is 156, though that was hampered a bit by the last couple of seasons in his career, when he was over 40 and not quite the player he once was. But he did lead the NL in OPS 5 times during his career, during which he won 12 straight gold gloves. So it's safe to say that he was a premier defensive player while being one of the biggest offensive threats of his generation.

Next is Mickey Mantle, who played around the same era as Willie Mays. His career counting numbers don't look as good, but that's mostly because he did not play as long as Mays. In his prime, he might have been the best hitter of his generation not named Ted Williams. He had great patience at the plate (career .421 OBP) while hitting for a lot of power (he was in the top 3 in the AL in SLG for 11 of 13 straight years). His OPS+ of 172 places him 6th all-time.

Last, there's Ty Cobb, who is a bit harder to compare because he played a good portion of his career in the Deadball Era. But he was an incredible pure hitter with lots of speed. While he didn't hit a lot of HR, nobody did, and he still lead the AL in SLG for 6 straight years (and 8 times overall in his career). His .366 career AVG is best ever, and his .433 OBP is 9th all-time. He also stole almost 900 bases in his career. The Georgia Peach's OPS+ of 167 is 10th all-time.

So what does this all mean? First, these were all exceptional players... when I made my list of the 10 best MLB players ever, they were all ranked in the top 10. No one is really a bad choice.

I will say this, I think Mantle had the best peak of any of them, but he just didn't have the longevity that Cobb or Mays did. So I would probably put him 3rd there. After that, it's almost a pick'em. You could probably make convincing arguments in favor of Willie Mays or Ty Cobb being the best player ever, let alone best CF ever. But if I had to choose, I think I would go with Willie Mays. Best defensive CF ever, and he wasn't too shabby as a hitter either.

Who would you choose? Why?

Who is the best CF of all-time?
	Willie Mays
	Ty Cobb
	Mickey Mantle

MLB 2nd Half Predictions

Continuing with the theme of midseason MLB posts, it's time for one more... my 2nd half predictions. I'll give you my order for the divisions, and then any other random predictions I can think of. I'd comment on the All-Star game, but I didn't really watch it (other than the surprisingly exciting bottom of the 9th inning).

AL EAST
1. Boston Red Sox
2. NY Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

I think the Yankees have just had awful luck this year (6-14 in 1-run games) that will even out over the course of the year, so I actually think they might have a chance to make a legitimate run at the division title, but 10 games is just a lot to overcome against a really good Red Sox team. At the tail end of the division, the DRays still aren't any good.

AL CENTRAL
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians*
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals

I would like to pick the Twins here, but it's hard to see lightning striking twice. The Indians and Tigers are both high quality teams and the 7-8 game edge they have will be tough for the Twins to overcome. That said, I do have a good feeling about this Twins team, and all (well, maybe there's still some) bias aside, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Minnesota back in the postseason.

AL WEST
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Texas Rangers

I think Oakland will be the best team in this division in the 2nd half, but I'm not sure they're quite good enough to overcome the 9 game cushion that the Angels have right now. Likewise, the Mariners are a good team, but not better than the Angels. As usual, the Rangers are pretty much irrelevant at this point.

NL EAST
1. Atlanta Braves
2. NY Mets*
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Florida Marlins
5. Washington Nationals

I think some of the performances by Mets pitchers have been a little flukey (see: John Maine, Jorge Sosa, Oliver Perez), which is why I give the Braves the slight edge for the division. I do like the Mets to win the Wildcard, but the Phillies should be in the race until the end as well. The Marlins are talented, but still a little too inconsistent for me to be legitimate contenders, though they are only 7 games back.

NL CENTRAL
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Houston Astros
4. St. Louis Cardinals
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds

I made the bold prediction that the Cubs will win the NL Central over a month ago, and I am sticking with it. As I said a little while ago, I don't feel too comfortable with it, but the Cubs are playing better and are only 4.5 games back. As their luck continues to even out I see them eventually beating out the Brewers in a really tight race. The rest of the division is awful. The Cardinals are 40-45 and only 7.5 GB, but they haven't even been playing that well. No one else has any chance.

NL WEST
1. San Diego Padres
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Francisco Giants

The Padres only have a 1 game lead right now, but I do think they are definitely the best team in the division. The Dodgers might be able to give them a fight, but I think the DBacks will start falling out of the race. The Rockies have been a nice story, but they're a .500 team. They're just not good enough at this point to compete with the Padres.

Other predictions:

Pitcher most likely to see his numbers drop - Chad Gaudin - It probably doesn't take a rocket scientist for this call, but Gaudin's 2.88 ERA is completely flukey. For one, he has never pitched this well throughout his career. Second, his K/BB numbers are not impressive. Only 68 strikeouts compared to 48 BB. That won't get the job done all year long. I expect his ERA to raise almost a point by the end of the year.

Pitcher most likely to see his numbers improve - Tim Lincecum - I've been on the Lincecum bandwagon from the beginning, and at one point even wondered if he might eventually be a Cy Young candidate, so it's a little disappointing to see the ERA up at 4.63. But I'm not exactly worried. For one, he still has dynamite stuff. Like, some of the best stuff in the MLB. Second, his splits still look very good. He has had some trouble with his control at times, but that was to be expected. What you have to like is that he is striking out over a batter per inning (79 K in 72 IP), which is great. He's also doing a decent job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. I think his ERA could drop a run in the 2nd half. Of course, when he does things like this, it's easy to fall in love with his potential.

What do you think of these predictions? Agree or disagree with them?

Thoughts on the HR Derby

Wow, that was long. I mean, I love the HR Derby. But that thing took like 3 hours. That's just a bit much.

Of course, it didn't help that I found most of the announcers to be just about unbearable. We all know about Joe Morgan, who doesn't really add much, I don't think. Dusty Baker was OK, but I just find him annoying. I don't know why, I just don't really like him as an announcer. Berman is Berman... way over the top, but I don't think he's awful for stuff like this.

I still love Kenny Mayne, but he didn't get a chance to do much. The other guy from ESPN that I always like is Karl Ravech. Whether he's in the booth (like he was tonight), on Sportscenter, etc. he is consistently good.

One final note on the announcers... all night they kept making comments about how Vlad had to take pitches and alluding to the fact that he swings at a lot of pitches... but guys, he has walked 47 times this year (though 20 of them intentional). He's a little more patient than he used to be.

Onto the Derby itself, what a bore the first round was. No one could hit them out, and there was only like 2 into the Cove. That is why All-Star Games should be in hitter's parks.

Another thing I'd like to change... and I know this will never happen, but I still think it would be awesome if they hit with aluminum bats for the Derby. It's an exhibition anyway, why not help them hit more bombs? Granted, seeing the 503-footer from Guerrero tells me they may not need them, but I still think it'd be cool to see.

Finally, congrats to Vlad, who put on quite a show in that 2nd round.

What did you think of the Derby?

MLB First Half Awards

With the All-Star break upon us, it's time to hand out my awards for the first half of the season.

AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore
There are some solid position player candidates, but no one really good enough to beat out Guthrie and his sub-3.00 ERA. Likewise, there are some solid pitching candidates (such as Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima), but I think Guthrie has been a little more valuable. He strikes out only a modest 6.35 batters per 9 innings, but he has shown good command and has a 4:1 K:BB ratio. I think Matsuzaka is the better bet long-term, but Guthrie has been a little better so far.
Other candidates: Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Dustin Pedroia, Travis Buck
End of season prediction: Daisuke Matsuzaka

NL Rookie of the Year: Hunter Pence, Houston
Pence has been an absolute hitting machine since his call-up, and if he keeps it up might even get some MVP consideration. His lack of plate patience (only 10 BB and 52 K) makes it unlikely he can keep up his .340+ average, but he is hitting for a lot of power. If he does slip up, Ryan Braun looks like a great candidate, as he has been one of the best players in the NL over the past couple months.
Other candidates: Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton
End of season prediction: Ryan Braun

AL Cy Young: Dan Haren, Oakland
Haren has started to come back down to Earth, but he's still the leading candidate in the AL. He has displayed good control (with an over 3:1 K:BB ratio). A look at his DIPS ERA shows he might be getting a little lucky so far (and the lack of hits allowed might be a bit flukey), but Haren is an excellent pitcher who has been among the League's best for a couple of years. If that luck does start to even out, he'll have lots of competition from Johan Santana, who, aside from a high number of HRA, has had a great first half and appears to have hit his stride a little earlier than normal.
Other candidates: Johan Santana, John Lackey, Josh Becket,, Erik Bedard
End of season prediction: Johan Santana

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy, San Diego
Peavy has been the best pitcher in the MLB in the first half. There's no debate in my mind... he has simply been dominant in a way that no other pitcher has been so far. Of course the ERA is great, but Peavy is set apart from the rest with his great K rate and good control. Plus, he's only allowed 3 HR all year. But while I do think he has been the best, it's not like everyone else has struggled. Brad Penny and Chris Young have also been dominant, just not as much so.
Other candidates: Brad Penny, Chris Young
End of season prediction: Jake Peavy

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, New York
This was probably the closest one for me to call, because Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez are about dead even. Both have been outstanding and stand far above the rest of the AL crop. I actually think Magglio has been a little better at the plate, but the fact that A-Rod plays 3B puts him a little bit ahead. Still, if you wanted to take Magglio here, I'd be hard pressed to argue too much.
Other candidates: Magglio Ordonez
End of season prediction: Alex Rodriguez

NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez, Florida
OK, this one is a little more out there, but I still really do think Ramirez is the most underrated player in the MLB. I mean, Jose Reyes is great, but he gets all the publicity while there's hardly a peep about Ramirez. Check out the numbers... Ramirez is hitting a lot better than Reyes, and he's pretty darn good on the basepaths as well. His OBP is above .380, he's slugging over .530, and he plays SS. He leads the NL in VORP right now (3rd in the MLB behind A-Rod and Mags). It was a really tough call to put Ramirez over Chase Utley and Prince Fielder, but he's been outstanding.
Other candidates: Chase Utley, Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera
End of season prediction: Chase Utley

Your thoughts? Who are your award winners so far?