Kevin Durant or Greg Oden?

I know we're a long ways from the Draft, and we don't know for sure whether both of these guys will be in the Draft, but assuming they are, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at who the better pro prospect is right now.

Coming into the year, Greg Oden was the consensus #1 prospect, but now that Kevin Durant has asserted himself as the frontrunner for the NCAA Player of the Year, things have changed in the eyes of some people. Both are extraordinary players in very different ways, and both will contribute immediately.

Some analyst said not too long ago, and I don't remember who exactly, but he basically asked would you rather have David Robinson or Dirk Nowitski? That's probably who Oden and Durant compare to the best, and if they turn out anything like them, well, you can see what all the hype is about.

First is Greg Oden, the most highly touted Center prospect in a long, long time. Despite limited use of his right hand, Oden has averaged over 15 PPG so far this year while shooting 62% from the field. He has developed a solid offensive game in the post with his left hand, even shooting free throws right handed. Still, he does have a way to go on the offensive end, as he is not really polished at all yet with his back to the basket. However, the fact that he is so athletic and agile suggests that that will come with time and experience.

But offense is not where Oden will make his living... right now, as a freshman, Oden is the best defensive big man in college basketball. That's not a slight to guys like Joakim Noah, who are very good, but Oden is just in another world. He's always in the right position, he has an NBA-type body already, and he has unbelievable instincts. He averages 3.7 BPG, and that's even with teams knowing what kind of force he is down there. Another good thing is that he's smart down there and not over-aggressive... even with all of the blocks, he's not putting guys on the line and getting himself into foul trouble, as he averages 2.4 fouls per game and has not fouled out in a game this year. Athleticism, positioning, smarts, and timing make Oden the best defensive college big man in the country.

Next is Kevin Durant, who has taken the college basketball world by storm. His numbers alone are almost mind-boggling. He's averaging over 25 points and 11 rebounds per game as a freshman in the Big 12. What's more, he is averaging about 33 points and 14 rebounds per game in conference play. That is simply incredible.

Many are saying Kevin Durant will 'redefine' our notion of a forward offensively, though admittedly I can't really see that. What does Durant do that Nowitski or McGrady doesn't? That's not a slight to Durant at all, but I wouldn't say he's redefining anything. But that doesn't really matter all that much... what does matter is that his offensive skill set might be better than any other college player's has been for quite a while. He's a very solid 3-point shooter, he can get by his man and get to the hoop, or he can post up smaller defenders. He is the entire package offensively.

Defensively, he's not there yet but the potential is there. He has long arms that can wreak havoc on an offense... as evidenced by 1.9 BPG and 1.5 SPG. He's an average defender right now, but with his tools and some good coaching, he has the ability to develop in a very good one.

So who would I choose? Certainly you can't go wrong with Oden or Durant. However, if I had the #1 pick in the NBA Draft and these 2 guys were on the board, my selection at this point would still be Greg Oden. Defensively, he can step in and immediately challenge for the All-Defensive team, and that's no exaggeration. He is that smart, that strong, and that athletic. Offensively, he's a work in progress to some degree, but the potential to be a great scorer in the post is there, which we will certainly learn more about at his right wrist gets healthier. So for these reasons, I would give Oden the slightest of nods over Durant, though the way Kevin Durant is playing, that could change.

If you had the #1 pick in the NBA Draft and these 2 players were on the board, who would you choose?

Andre Iguodala

Ladies and gentlemen, meet Andre Iguodala. Sure, you know about him from the Dunk Contest last year, but that's just a small part. Don't look now, but he's been downright studly ever since the trade of Allen Iverson.

I'll go into depth in a minute, but first this video from last year's dunk contest, along with a quote from Charles Barkley that summed up Iguodala's first 2 years in the NBA:



To recap the video, here's the conversation that took place:

Kenny: I never understood this... why would you use Allen Iverson to pass you the ball in a dunk contest?
Charles: It's a subliminal message... like when I gave Kenny those Altoids.

Allen Iverson is my favorite player in the NBA, but let's be honest, with him and Webber in the mix, Iguodala didn't have that many opportunities to create and score on his own, and that may have hampered his growth and potential as a young player a little bit. So in his young days he was just the best defensive player on the team from the moment he was drafted, a good finisher and good passer, but he didn't have the ball enough to score a lot of points.

Well, now he appears to be making up for lost time. In last night's game, Iguodala was the star for the Sixers in beating the Bobcats, with 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 steals.

Of course, this is becoming a pretty common thing for AI2. He has scored 19 or more points in his last 9 games, and has averaged 23.4 PPG over that span. After averaging just about 14 PPG in November (before the shakeup in Philly), he averaged 18.9 PPG in December, 18.2 in January, and 25 PPG so far in February. But it's not like scoring is all he's been doing.

In December and January combined he averaged around 5 RPG, about 5.5 APG, and over 2 SPG. So in addition to being a high percentage scorer and being able to get to the line, he also is a contributor on the glass, a very good passer, and the best defensive player on the team.

So have a look folks at a rising star, a supremely athletic player that is just learning how to really play on the offensive end, and so far with excellent results. Andre Iguodala, one of the most underrated players in the NBA.

My Answer in the Bag/Bilastrator Challenge

If you don't know what the Bag/Bilastrator challenge is, it doesn't matter. Check one of Grant Wahl from SI.com's columns or one of Jay Bilas' from ESPN. Anyway, a couple of weeks ago there was an interesting question posed, and I thought it might be interesting to take a crack at it. The question was:

You have selected your coach for one game, and must now select your team for that one game. You may choose any active collegian, but must select one freshman, one sophomore, one junior, and one senior, plus one wild-card selection to round out your starting lineup. You must also select one player to come off of your bench. Provide the reasons for each selection.

I obviously didn't select a coach, but here's my team:

Point Guard - Acie Law (Sr, Texas A&M) - I just live pretty much everything about Acie Law's game at this point. He's a very good 3-point shooter (45% this year), very good with the ball (2.12 A/TO), and plays very good defense. Plus, he just takes over at the end of games, as he definitely showed in the Kansas game. I picked Texas A&M for the Final Four before the season began, and Law is making me feel comfortable with that pick at this point.

Shooting Guard - Alando Tucker (Sr, Wisconsin) - Technically Tucker is more of a small forward, but I don't think he would have too much trouble switching over to 2 guard. He can score from the outside or by powering inside, and despite having the ball a lot, does not turn it over very often.

Small Forward - Kevin Durant (Fr, Texas) - The numbers are mind-blowing for anyone, let alone a freshman. 25.4 PPG and 11.6 RPG, and he's averaging over 30 PPG in conference play. Oh yeah, and he has 14 double-doubles this year, which is already a Texas record. He is not a great defensive player yet, but he's not awful. And his offensive ability makes up for any possible defensive liability. He can score in almost every way possible with equal effectiveness, and it shows in the numbers. Just a phenomenal player.

Power Forward - Julian Wright (So, Kansas) - The thing I like about Wright is that with all of his talent, he doesn't need to have the ball to be effective, which would be perfect for a team like this. He is extremely skilled, and can help offensively either through his high-percentage shooting or passing ability. He's a very solid rebounder, and contributes on the defensive end as well. He'd be a great fit for a talented team like this.

Center - Joakim Noah (Jr, Florida) - Noah is not a highly skilled offensive player right now, but his athleticism and hustle make him very solid and high-percentage offensively. But the hustle and athleticism helps most with rebounding and defense. Noah averages over 8 rebounds per game in only about 25 minutes a game, which is good. He also averages a couple of blocks. He's not as athletically skilled as his fellow frontcourt mate Al Horford, but his energy makes him the choice.

6th Man - Corey Brewer (Jr, Florida) - Brewer is the pick for the 6th man because of his versatility. He can guard multiple positions, and might be the best defensive wing player in the country. He's not exactly an offensive liability either, as he shoots a reasonably good percentage from outside, and just everything pretty solidly. Just a good all-around player and a great 6th man.

What would your team look like?

Super Bowl Commercials

Overall, I thought the commercials were ok, but not great. There were no great commercials, but there were a decent amount of funny ones crunched in there between CBS promotions. You can watch most of them here on Youtube, but I'll give my thoughts on some of them I either liked or disliked.

Sierra Mist "Bad Decision"
This was just kind of creepy... Sierra Mist, preferred by guys that wear short shorts and have combover beards everywhere!

Bud Light "Rock Paper Scissors"
This was a solid commercial. Not great, but it was good, cheap humor that made me laugh, and made everyone I was with laugh. Ah, nothing like some good violence to add humor.

Bud Light "Wedding Auction"
This might have been my favorite commercial of the night. I thought it was a pretty good commercial idea to bring in the auctioneer to speed up the wedding to get to the reception. The ending was weak, but I thought this was a pretty good premise that made me chuckle.

Snickers "The Kiss"
I thought this was one of the worst of the night... nothing like a little homophobia to make a commercial! Secondly, since when is ripping off your chest hair the manly thing to do? I thought it was more manly to have chest hair? So many questions, so few answers. Like what were the guys that made this commercial were thinking?

Garmin "Mapzilla"
I enjoyed this one. Simple, corny, but it was funny. I can't explain why it was funny, because it probably shouldn't have been, but I enjoyed it.

Chevy "All-Male Car Wash"
The moral of this commercial is that I should never, ever buy a Chevy. Especially if that's the reaction I'm going to get for it.

Careerbuilder.com "Bad Day in the Office"
These were all kind of similar from Careerbuilder, but I enjoyed these as well. Pretty simple idea, pretty overdramaticly done, but they got their point across well and made me laugh.

Doritos "Cleanup on Register 6"
This actually kinda makes me never want to eat Doritos ever again.

Bud Light "Slap Fight"
Another good commercial here. Once again, gratuitous violence usually aids in making a funny commercial, and this was the case here. Even if there was no storyline, just a bunch of people slapping each other probably would have made me chuckle.

GM "Robot Unemployment"
As was noted other places, this was actually a sad representation of the state of the U.S. automaking industry. Anyway, what I gathered from this is that GM keeps their employees under so much pressure that they will be fired with even the tiniest of screwups, at which point their life will be ruined and they will commit suicide. That's nice.

Taco Bell "Lions"
I'll just quote this Foxsports.com review:

I want to do a mini-poll on the least believable premise espoused in this commercial: 1. That people would be eating Taco Bell food out in the plains in Africa; 2. That lions speak English, much less argue over how to pronounce Spanish words; or 3. That any of this will make you more likely to eat at Taco Bell.

Nationwide Mutual Insurance "K-Fed"
This one was talked about a lot even before the Super Bowl, and it was decently funny. Not great, especially since I knew the punchline going in, but it was not bad.

Bud Light "Bottle Opener"
This was probably my favorite one of the night. "He has an axe." "Yeah, but he has Bud Light." "And an axe." "I'm sure there's a reason for it." Ridiculous comedy that I had a very good chuckle at. If you pressed me on it, I would say that this was my favorite commercial of the night.

Flomax "Here's to Guys"
And this gets my vote for the creepiest Super Bowl commercial. Not even a contest.

Indianapolis Colts are the Super Bowl Champions

Well, things happened pretty much like I expected them to.

Peyton Manning was pretty good (after a little bit of a struggle early on), the Bears forced some turnovers, and Rex Grossman couldn't do enough (or anything) to win the Bears the game. And so the end result was the Colts winning 29-17, proving that sometimes general consensus is right.

Anyway, how about that Colts running game? Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai combined for 190 rushing yards, and that's not even counting the 66 yards that Addai gained on short receptions. I thought Addai played great football, and he might have actually been my MVP. He just had a huge impact.

Speaking of impact, how awesome was the opening kickoff return by Devin Hester? He just made it look so easy... the little juke, and then gone. That really was a thing of beauty.

To get it out of the way, how about Rex Grossman? As expected (by me at least), that was decidedly not pretty. Lofting the ball up, fumbling snaps, throwing the game-clinching INT for a TD, an ugly throw to an open WR downfield... and on and on. I mean, 20/28 is a nice percentage, but that doesn't matter so much when your team finishes with 11 first downs. Yikes. Do the Bears look for another starter next year? We shall see.

The Bears defense wasn't terrible, I didn't think. Certainly they've had better days, but the Colts offense is real good and the Bears offense could not stay on the field. What resulted was the Colts holding the ball for almost 39 minutes and a tired Bears defense having no shot in the 2nd half. They brought great energy early in the game, but you can't sustain that when you're on the field that long.

One note on the telecast... I thought the announcers and commercials were OK. Not great, but OK. But my real hope was that CBS would be able to go at least 5 or 6 minutes without a little bit of self-promotion, but unfortunately that did not happen. But we can't all get what we wish for.

All in all, a little bit of a snoozer, but it happens. Congrats to Tony Dungy and the Indianapolis Colts, the 2007 Super Bowl Champions!

Super Bowl Picks from around the Webosphere

I gave you my pick yesterday, but here's everyone else's picks, so you know who to laugh at when they're wrong (just kidding)(but not really).

Insomniac's Lounge - Colts 27, Bears 13

Just Call Me Juice - Colts 35, Bears 21

Sweaty Men Endeavors - Colts 23, Bears 13

Signal to Noise - Bears 24, Colts 20

Petey - Bears 28, Colts 24

The Sports Flow - Colts 27, Bears 14 AND Colts 23, Bears 17

The Zoner - Bears 27, Colts 20

Dan Shanoff - Colts win.

WBRS Sports Blog - Bears 20, Colts 17

If you're brave enough to face the ridicule of the millions and dozens that read this site, include your picks in the comments or send me an email and I'll add it to the post. Enjoy the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Prediction

Yin and yang. That’s sort of the theme for this Super Bowl, because the teams seem to be complete opposites.

In the Indianapolis Colts we have a great offensive team. They are balanced and lethal, able to score on 1 play or shove a 15 play drive right down your throat. Peyton Manning seems poised to break all sorts of QB record by the time he retires, Joseph Addai is getting better and better as he gains experience, and the WR corps (led by Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne) may be the best in the NFL.

In the Chicago Bears we have a great defensive team. They are fast and relentless, able to bring the pressure or drop back and force you to make a bad throw. They are led by their MLB, Brian Urlacher, who will go down as one of the greats. They pressure the QB, their secondary makes great plays, and everyone just swarms to the ball.

So we know what we’re going to get from these two units. Which means that for the most part this game will be decided when the Bears offense is on the field. The Bears offense has been consistently inconsistent all season, led by Rex Grossman. Through a quarter of the NFL season Grossman was the NFL MVP. By the last quarter of the season fans were about split on whether or not he should still be the starter. He has physical tools, but he’s still a young guy and gets rattled and forces things when pressured.

The Colts defense was much maligned all season long but has come to play in the playoffs. In the first 2 rounds they were nearly impenetrable, and in the Conference Championship they made stops when they had to. Led by Dwight Freeney, they are a fast and athletic unit, but they have been pushed around at times.

So what does all of this mean? Well, I think the QB matchup will tell the tale. Peyton Manning has been historically good in his career while Rex Grossman is one of (if not the) worst QBs ever to make a Super Bowl. I expect the Colts fast front 7 to get to Grossman and put pressure on him, forcing him to make bad throws and get rid of it before he has to. Then I expect Manning to capitalize on those and score enough on the Bears stout defense to bring the Super Bowl to the Colts, officially getting the monkey off of Manning’s back.

I've been a pretty strong Grossman basher all season, and I still don't think he's very good. They're in the Super Bowl, but it's mostly because of the great defense and special teams, and the fact that they've found the running game here in the playoffs in a big way. If I'm wrong and Grossman wins the Super Bowl, I'll be eating my words on Monday, and you all have the right to taunt me. However, I don't think I'll be having to do that.

Colts 27-16.