is it really over?

6 months of Twins baseball. A 25-33 start, falling as many as 12.5 games back of the division lead, only to comeback and dramatically take the lead on the final day of the season. A batting champ, the probably Cy Young, and MVP candidates.

All erased in 3 games over the span of 3 games.

Did that really just happen? Can it really be over so quickly? What the heck happened?

I could talk at length about why the Twins lost this series, but I'll stick to this quick analysis, and stop with the negatives. Heck, there wasn't a whole lot of positives for the series. I don't understand how a team that won 96 games could look so bad. But I digress.

I'll just focus on what a fun and exciting season this was for the Twins. The aforementioned 96 wins and AL Central title. But that's just a small part of what made this the most fun season following the Twins of my life. What did I love about these Twins? Well, since you asked:

- Joe Mauer. What else needs to be said? The first catcher to lead the MLB in batting while playing Gold Glove caliber defense behind the plate. At age 23. It was a pleasure to watch Joe play baseball day in and day out.

- Another fantastic season for Johan Cytana. He got the pitching triple crown which all but locks up his 2nd Cy Young award. This should be his 3rd straight Cy Young, but voters are stupid.

- The electricity of Francisco Liriano. When he was on the mound, there was no one better in the MLB this year. Great fastball, great changeup, and an absolutely devastating slider. If he was healthy, things might have been a lot different. Come back healthy Francisco.

- Justin Morneau becoming the star everyone thought he'd be. Everyone knew the power was always there, but he became a very complete hitter, hitting to all fields. One of the most fun guys to watch hit the ball.

- The effort of Torii Hunter. Sure, he can make mistakes (see: Game 2). And he's lost a step defensively. And he can take some bad swings at the plate. But he gives it all whenever he's out there, and there's not much better about baseball than watching him play baseball. Friday may have been his last game in a Twins uniform... if that's the case, thanks for the memories Torii.

- Brad Radke. You can't say enough about this guy. Pitching with a torn labrum is bad enough, but he was also gutting it out with a stress fracture in his throwing shoulder. He couldn't do anything without pain, yet he was pitching great start after start, and truly left everything he had. Thank you Brad Radke, for a great season and a great career.

- Covering everything on Thank You Brian Sabean. I wrote about the Minnesota Twins almost every day for the last 4 months... which made me appreciate the good times more. I don't know if I'll be back next year with TYBS, but hopefully time permits it, because it was really a great experience.

So while the last 3 games were not exactly the storybook ending everyone was hoping for, it was an unbelievable and unforgettable season, and one I won't soon forget. From the division title to winning 96 games to getting back to the playoffs, it was just about everything I could ask for. And with a young team, we might be back here again next year.

Thanks for reading, thanks for letting me ramble, and see you in a few days. While it was a great year that I'll look back fondly on, it's still a tough pill to swallow being swept. So I'll mope for a few days, and start looking forward to next year, where I can only hope for half the excitement this year brought.

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5

Colts (-18.5) over Titans

Panthers (-8) over Browns

Patriots (-10) over Dolphins

Bears (-10) over Bills

Saints (-6.5) over Bucs

Rams (-3) over Packers

Redskins (+5) over Giants

Lions (+6.5) over Vikings

49ers (-3) over Raiders

Jets (+7) over Jaguars

Chiefs (-3.5) over Cardinals

Cowboys (+1.5) over Eagles

Steelers (+3) over Chargers

Broncos (-4) over Ravens

Last Week: 8-5-1
Season: 33-25-2

College Football Picks: Week 6

After a pretty dull week of college football, we're back this week with some more great games on the docket! Let's not waste any more of your time, and just get to the picks.

Michigan St at (6) Michigan - This is a Spartans team that is reeling after a choke job against Notre Dame followed by the loss against Illinois. Meanwhile, the Wolverines are still riding high and looking like one of the best teams in the country. Michigan St. has some talent with Drew Stanton, but it's going to take a big letdown from the Wolverines for the Spartans to win this game, and I don't see it happening. Not in the big house. MICHIGAN 34-21.

(11) Oregon at (16) California - A very interesting matchup between 2 teams that are playing very good football, and teams with aspirations of a Pac-10 title. For Oregon, Dennis Dixon has been very, very good, and Jonathan Stewart is running the ball very well. For Cal, the Tennessee game is but a distant memory at this point, with Nate Longshore playing better and better every week. I look for that improvement to continue, and for Cal to ride Marshawn Lynch, Nate Longshore, and the rest of the offense to a home victory. CALIFORNIA 42-37.

(13) Tennessee at (10) Georgia - A lot of this game comes down to the QB play for Georgia. Joe Tereshinski is expected to return for the Dawgs, and that's a very good thing because Matthew Stafford has looked overmatched so far in his young career. For the Vols, Erik Ainge continues to impress, as they manhandled Memphis last week. But Georgia is no Memphis. I look for Tereshinski to provide some stability at QB, and for the Georgia defense to dominate the game at home. GEORGIA 14-13.

(7) Texas vs. (14) Oklahoma - Both teams come into this game a little under the radar because they both have one less. Texas got beat handily at home to Ohio St., and Oklahoma "lost" on the road at Oregon. But make no mistake, both teams will be very fired up and this game will once again have huge Big 12 implications. For the Sooners, we know the drill - give the ball to Adrian Peterson. A lot. So far, that's worked out pretty darn well. For Texas, it's all about balance. So far, they are averaging about 212 yards passing per game and 205 yards rushing per game. I like balance. TEXAS 23-20.

(9) LSU at (5) Florida - This is the game of the week in my eyes. Two great SEC teams... talented, fast, athletic, and skilled. As is typical with these games, I expect things to be dominated by the defenses. Chris Leak has put up good numbers for the Gators, but Deshawn Wynn is a little banged up and might lose a little bit of effectiveness, which is big. The Gators second leading rusher is backup QB Tim Tebow. For LSU, JaMarcus Russell has all of the physical tools, he just needs to be consistent. Last week he completed 90% of his passes, and, well, that's pretty good. I expect him to make a couple big plays, and the defense to dominate this game, and I like LSU to go into The Swamp and pull off the huge road SEC victory. LSU 10-3.

Last Week: 5-0
Season: 19-6

This is not 'Modified Moneyball'

Sigh... it's been a few years since Moneyball came out, and still national writers miss the point of the book. Hence, this column I see on ESPN.com... "Modified Moneyball Pays Off for A's"

Now, the author has no bad intentions with this column, and it gives praise to Beane, who, more than perhaps any GM, deserves it. But I'm sick of the misconception that Moneyball is about signing guys with a high OBP... it's about finding inefficiencies and going for guys that are undervalued. Which is what consistently Beane does better than anyone else. Let's take a look at some of the passages in the article.

But no matter how this postseason series with the Twins plays out, 2006 has marked not only a continuation of Beane's winning strategy, but a maturation of the thought process that accompanies it. It turns out that "veteran" and "Oakland" are not necessarily mutually exclusive terms.

According to my reading of this paragraph, the writer assumes that Beane's though processes "matured" as he realized something about how veterans are valuable. This is not a maturation of Beane's thought process.

For one thing, Beane has never been opposed to bringing in "veterans" and I'm not really sure where the writer is getting that. Beane always seems to be the guy that brings in low-cost free agents, and he's usually one of the most active traders in the trade market. Sure, he lets a lot of guys go and trades off some talent, but that has a lot more to do with money than about Beane not valuing "veterans." Where would the As be if they had resigned Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder? Well, they'd have no money and be completely handcuffed.

Two, the fact that Beane has largely changed what type of team this is does not mean that his thought process has "matured," only that he's recognized what the market is undervaluing. It's not that Beane suddenly discovered the value of veterans, it's that he picked up some guys that weren't valued enough on the open market. More on that later.

In Frank Thomas, Esteban Loaiza and Milton Bradley, Beane last offseason added some well-considered risk to his formula, which normally skews younger, cheaper and more inside-the-numbers productive.

There's always been risk to "his formula," it's just that he takes calculated risks with guys that are undervalued. A lot of teams didn't want Frank Thomas because he was perceived as being injury-prone and bad in the clubhouse. Beane knew he was still a great hitter and signed him.

Bradley was perceived as being a clubhouse cancer and a bad guy, which made him a little undervalued. So Beane traded for him, and he's been great in RF offensively and defensively. To be honest, I didn't really like the Loaiza deal when it was made, and I still think he may have been a little overpaid, but that seems to be working out so far.

By the way, not to toot my own horn, but here's a comment I made when the A's signed Frank Thomas:

For more proof that Billy Beane is the best GM in the MLB, look at his signing of Frank Thomas. Frank was the 2nd best hitter of the 90s, and even though he's declined, he's still a good hitter. He has above average power, and he has a great eye. If he's healthy, which is a big risk, he's a very good DH, a route that I wish the Twins would have pursued.

But moving on with the article...

Macha is a veteran manager guiding what, for the A's, is an unusually veteran team. That much marks a small modification to the "Moneyball" approach. The fact that Beane isn't afraid to take credit for it doesn't mean he's wrong.

First off, I guess I'd disagree that the A's are an "unusually veteran team," but that's basically just arguing semantics. However, I still fail to see what modification was made to the Moneyball approach... the A's are continuing to look for undervalued players in the market.

The biggest example of this is the draft. When the book came out, the A's had the philosophy of drafting mainly college players, as they felt that those players carried less risk and were undervalued. Well, everyone else started to figure that out too and took more college players. So what did Beane do? Started taking lots of high school players. This may seem like another "modification" to the Moneyball approach, but it's a gross misunderstanding of it. Beane sees that high school players are becoming undervalued, so he drafts more of them. This doesn't mean he feels his thinking about college players was wrong, just that he gets more value out of high school players at this time.

The last sentence, I don't really get. "Beane isn't afraid to take credit for it?" What does this mean? Just because a book comes out about Beane and the A's does not mean that Beane is taking all the credit for what they're doing... that is bordering on Joe Morgan territory saying something like that.

But anyway, the point is, this is not "Modified Moneyball." It's "Moneyball" at its finest.

2006 MLB Playoff Predictions

Let's jump right in:

ALDS

Yankees vs. Tigers - Honestly, I just can't see the Tigers beating the Yankees. The Yankees have the best lineup possibly ever, and the Tigers pitching has not been the same as it was in the first half of the year. The Tigers lineup is impatient, which should play into the hands of the Yanks starters. Plus, Detroit has to be feeling down after being swept by the Royals to lose the division. YANKEES IN 3.

Twins vs. Athletics - I previewed this more extensively elsewhere, but I do think the As are getting disrespected a little bit. Zito-Loaiza-Harden-Haren can be a very good rotation, and the bullpen is very solid. However, the Twins still have Johan, and he's pretty good. Plus, if it gets down to the 7th inning and the Twins have runners on and they have to get Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau, who do they go with? I'm not sure either. TWINS IN 5.

NLDS

Padres vs. Cardinals - The Cardinals limp into the playoffs with 1 good starter (who hasn't been all that great lately) and a mediocre bullpen. Meanwhile, the Padres have very solid starting pitching, a reliable bullpen, and a solid lineup. Albert Pujols is unbelievable, but he can't do it without any help. PADRES IN 4.

Mets vs. Dodgers - With Pedro Martinez, the Mets are the clear favorite to win the NL. Without him, they're just another team with mediocre starting pitching. Who's their ace? Tom Glavine and his 4.33 ERA since the AS break? Orlando Hernandez and his 4.66 ERA? The Mets have the best lineup in the NL, but I just don't think they have the starting pitching to get it done against a solid, pesky Dodgers lineup. DODGERS IN 5.

ALCS

Yankees vs. Twins - Can the Twins score enough runs? That's what it comes down to. Against any pitcher not named Johan Santana, we know the Yankees will get theirs. But can the Twins take advantage of the mediocre starting pitching of the Yanks? Can Boof Bonser and Brad Radke give the Twins 6 good innings and then turn it over to the best bullpen in baseball? As much as I'd love to see it and will be rooting like none other if this matchup does happen, I'm not sure they can. YANKEES IN 6.

NLCS

Dodgers vs. Padres - All of San Diego's batting stats are a bit skewed because of their home ballpark, but I do think the Dodgers have the better, more balanced offense. Kenny Lofton and Rafael Furcal set the table, and then guys like JD Drew, Nomar Garciaparra, and Jeff Kent are more than capable of bringing them in. Pitching wise, the Padres have the best in the NL, with Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Woody Williams, and even Clay Hensley providing stability. The rotation is so good they don't even know who'll be starting Game 1 yet. They've also got a great bullpen, with Trevor Hoffman, Scott Linebrink, and Cla Meredith. However, the Dodgers pitching is pretty solid as well... which is why they're my slight favorite here. DODGERS IN 7.

WORLD SERIES

Yankees vs. Dodgers - A series only the TV networks could love! Two very solid offenses, two decent pitching staffs. However, I just don't think the Dodgers (or any NL team) has enough pitching or hitting to match up with the Yankees. If the As/Twins don't take out the Yankees, nobody does. I'd put money on that. YANKEES IN 5.

I do bite my thumb at you, MLB schedule-makers

Twins/A's game on Tuesday: Noon CDT.
Twins/A's game on Wednesday: Noon CDT.

Looks like I'll be missing a couple classes this week.

The 2006 AL Central Champions... the Minnesota Twins!

When the Twins were 25-33 and 10.5 games out of first place behind the MLB-leading Detroit Tigers in early June, I didn't like their chances.

When the Twins played great baseball going into the All-Star break but hardly made up any ground on the Detroit Tigers, I didn't like their chances.

When the Twins were 1 game back heading into the final week of the regular season, and needed 2 more win than Detroit in the final 6 games to win the division, I was cautiously optimistic.

When the Twins were tied with the Tigers going into the final series of the season, with the Twins taking on Chicago and the Tigers taking on Kansas City, I was cautiously optimistic.

When it came down to Sunday, with the Twins needing Carlos Silva to beat the White Sox and Odalis Perez to beat the Tigers, I wasn't too optimistic.

When the Tigers jumped out to a 6-0 lead over Kansas City and the White Sox took a 1-0 lead over Minnesota, I was pretty much resigned to facing the Yankees in Round 1.

When the Tigers loaded the bases in the bottom of the 12th inning with 1 out, I was preparing myself for the Yankees.

So when the Royals beat the Tigers 10-8 to seal the division title for the Twins, I could hardly believe it.

96-66. American League Central Division Champions. It defies logic. But then, so has this whole season for Minnesota.

See you in the playoffs.