My MLB Awards - National League

Time to unveil my awards for the 2007 MLB season, starting with the National League. If you disagree, please voice your opinions in the comments, because a lot of these could get some good discussion (especially concerning the MVP, which is a wide open race). Anyway, my picks for Cy Young, ROY, and MVP.

Cy Young: Jake Peavy (San Diego)
Simply been the best in the NL. The ERA and wins are there (which is what the voters look for), but the secondary numbers are great as well. He's got about a 4:1 K:BB ratio, and leads the NL in Strikeouts and WHIP. This is a really easy choice.

2. Brandon Webb (Arizona)
I think Webb is the best of the rest, though there are a lot of guys close together. Webb struck out a solid 194 batters, but the fact that he pitched a League-high 236 innings gives him the edge at #2 in my proverbial book.
3. John Smoltz (Atlanta)
Smoltz just quietly goes out and delivered another outstanding season. Seriously, people don't talk about this guy enough. All he did was have a 4:1 K:BB ratio while pitching over 200 innings. Still one of the best pitchers in the game.
4. Roy Oswalt (Houston)
Mr. Consistency. You know what you're getting with Oswalt. His BB totals were a little higher than you might like, but he still had over 200 productive innings.
5. Brad Penny (Los Angeles)
Penny was excellent, though I think the 16-4 record is a little gaudy. His K:BB rate was less than 2:1, though he did a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark.


Rookie of the Year: Ryan Braun (Milwaukee)
This seemed like such an obvious choice a month or two ago, but not so much anymore. At this point, Troy Tulowitzki is not really a bad choice. That said, I'm sticking with Braun, who was just a bit too good at the plate.

2. Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado)
Tulowitzki shoots up because he has over 600 ABs (most among these rookies), and has hit solidly while playing SS. A solid 24 HR.
3. Hunter Pence (Houston)
If he hadn't gotten hurt, he would definitely be challenging for the Rookie of the Year crown. As it is, he has to settle for 3rd in my book. Even without really taking a lot of walks, he was still really productive at the plate. He has a solid 56 XBH.
4. Tim Lincecum (San Francisco)
Lincecum had a 4.00 ERA, which was made more impressive by some nice splits. He had a great K rate. He was about equal with Gallardo, but he had about 25 more IP than him, which puts Lincecum at 4th and Gallardo at 6th.
5. James Loney (Los Angeles)
Loney was really good. He got on base at a .384 clip, and slugged nearly .550. In a hitter's ballpark. If he had more than about 370 PAs he would be higher on this list.
Also Considered: Yovani Gallardo (Milwaukee), Peter Moylan (Atlanta)


MVP: Hanley Ramirez (Florida)
I suspect this is a choice a lot of people might disagree with. First let me say that this was a wide open race in the NL (more than I can ever really remember one being), and I think you could definitely make arguments for 5 or 6 different guys. But I am a big Hanley Ramirez guy. A few notes:
A) I place absolutely no significance in how good a player's team or teammates are. This is an individual award. I don't punish Hanley Ramirez (or any other player on a poor team) simply because the owners want a $20 million payroll.
B) A lot of Ramirez's value is derived from the fact that he is playing SS.
C) He's in the top 10 in OPS, leads the NL in VORP, gets on base, hits for power, and steals bases at a productive rate. And he plays SS. This is why he is my MVP.

2. David Wright (New York)
OK, his team choked down the stretch. But Wright had a great year. He was 4th in the NL in OBP, hit for power, and plays a decent 3B. Like Hanley, he gets a bump because of the position that he plays.
3. Albert Pujols (St. Louis)
He was not as good as he has been, and his team was not good, but he was still extremely productive. He had a poor April, but rebounded to finish in the top 2 in the NL in OBP, and slug over .570. The man OPS'ed 1.101 after the AS Break.
4. Prince Fielder (Milwaukee)
He was extremely productive, but he's just a step below these top 3 in my book. He plays QB which drops him a little lower than guys like Hanley and David Wright, and he doesn't get on base as much as Pujols. The counting stats are nice, but I think the other guys were a little more valuable.
5. Chase Utley (Philadelphia)
If he had played all season, he might very well be my MVP. He was really, really good. OBP of over .410, and he slugged over .560. All as a 2nd basemen.
6. Matt Holliday (Colorado)
I have a hard time ranking him. Someone whose baseball opinion I respect (you know who you are) said he was his NL MVP, but I have him 6th. That speaks to the wildness of this MVP race. For me, I just have a hard time getting over those home/road splits. But Holliday was quite good this year.
7. Jimmy Rollins (Philadelphia)
Jimmy Rollins is a 30 HR hitter! Seriously. He doesn't get on base at the rate that a lot of the other guys do, but he hit for good power this year (87 XBH), played solid D at SS, and stole bases at a great rate.
8. Miguel Cabrera (Florida)
I've kinda always had it in my mind that Cabrera was the best 3B in the NL but was unjustly overshadowed by David Wright, but I do think Wright was a little better this year. Still, at only age 24, Cabrera should be in quite a few more MVP races in his career.
9. Chipper Jones (Atlanta)
Chipper was actually pretty awesome this year, he just couldn't stay on the field enough, amassing only about 590 PAs. But he actually led the NL in OPS. Bet you didn't know that if you hadn't already looked it up. Just a fine, fine hitter.
10. Jake Peavy (San Diego)
I'm not necessarily opposed to giving a pitcher an MVP award... but it would have to be a really extreme example. This doesn't qualify.

What are your thoughts? Who are your award winners?

Also, by popular demand, look for a Thursday Debate on the NL MVP race later in the week.

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 4

I'm back for more embarrassment... my picks. Thoughts for all games hopefully will follow sometime Friday... no time right now! That's what school does to you, I suppose. My drive for .500 continues.

Ravens (-4) over Browns

Bucs (+3) over Panthers

Bears (-3) over Lions
A competent QB does wonders.

Rams (+13) over Cowboys
At this point in the NFL season, I'm not picking anyone except the Patriots with a spread this large.

Vikings (+1.5) over Packers
Got to stick with my boys. Kelly Holcomb looks like he will start again, and he should be more comfortable in the offense in his 2nd week.

Falcons (+3) over Texans

Broncos (+9.5) over Colts

Raiders (+4) over Dolphins

Jets (-3.5) over Bills

Eagles (-3) over Giants

Cardinals (+6) over Steelers

Chiefs (+11.5) over Chargers
See: not about the Cowboys/Rams game.

Seahawks (-2) over 49ers

Patriots (-7) over Bengals
The Pats seem to be just too good for everyone else right now.

Last Week: 5-8-3
Season: 20-23-5

College Football Picks: Week 5

Looking at the schedule, looks like we have 2 really good games this week (one of them on Friday), and a lot of solid games. But enough with the intro... let's get to the picks!

(22) Alabama @ Florida St.
Bama is no longer undefeated, but Nick Saban still has them playing good football. However, they'll head into a tough environment in Tallahassee, though it looks to be another down year for the Seminoles. They may have changed the coaching staff, but the offense is still mediocre right now for FSU. Bobby Bowden would have never stood for this! (er, wait) Anyway, I'll take ALABAMA to add to FSU's misery in a close game.

Michigan St. @ (9) Wisconsin
Wisconsin has easily been the least impressive top 10 team this year, as they have struggled often with a schedule that has not exactly been the most daunting in the country. On the other side of the coin, the Spartans come in at 4-0 and riding a confidence high after dominating at Notre Dame (I don't care how bad they are, that's still got to be an exhilarating win for the players). I know Wisconsin plays well at home, and they're riding a 13 game winning streak, but I'm just not impressed with how they're playing. I'll take MICHIGAN ST. in an upset.

Kansas St. @ (7) Texas
Don't look now, but Kansas St. can cause some problems for Texas. They're solid defensively, and Josh Freeman is a pretty athletic QB. They also have a pretty solid rushing game. If they can control the clock and keep the Longhorn offense off the field, they'll have a great shot. I'm still taking TEXAS in this game, but it might be closer than you think.

(5) West Virginia @ (18) South Florida
Could this be the toughest game of the season for West Virginia? They've got road games against Rutgers and Cincy, as well as a home date with Louisville remaining, but USF could be the best team of that bunch. They went to Auburn and won a couple weeks ago, and stomped Butch Davis' North Carolina team a week ago. But West Virginia won't be taking South Florida lightly. Not only are the Bulls ranked, but they actually beat West Virginia in Morgantown last year, which adds another dynamic to this game. However, unlike last year, I don't think South Florida will be able to contain the West Virginia offense. I'll take WEST VIRGINIA in a high-scoring, very entertaining game.

(6) California @ (11) Oregon
The game of the week, between 2 very good teams and very good offenses out on the West Coast. Last year Cal dominated Oregon, but things might be a little different this time around. For one, I'm not sure anyone in the country is playing better than Dennis Dixon right now. He's been fantastic as a dual-threat QB. But you can't focus too much on him, because Jonathan Stewart is one of the 5 best RBs in the country. I think OREGON will be just a little too explosive for Cal to handle. Add in that Cal has looked a little sloppy lately, and I like Oregon in a shootout.

What are your picks?

Last Week: 4-1
Season: 12-3

NFL: The more I know the more I know that I know nothing

OK, confusing title aside, it has come to my attention that the NFL is pretty confusing. I mean, that's obvious to readers by looking at my picks each week, but it's hard to get a grasp on this League from week to week. Not that that's a bad thing. I was going to do some Power Rankings, but it seems just wholly unnecessary at this point in the year. So instead I'll just write the things that have surprised me most from each division.

AFC East - OK, bad example. This is the one division that has pretty much gone according to plan. The Patriots are really good (though probably even better than everyone thought), and the rest of the division is bad. The Patriots are 3-0, the other 3 teams are a combined 1-8. And the win was an inter-division win.

AFC North - I thought Pittsburgh would be good, but maybe not quite this dominating, as they have outscored their opponents 97-26. The other surprising thing is how atrocious the defenses of Cincinnati and Cleveland are. I mean, they've given up a combined 200 points so far. Of course, 96 of them came in one game, but still, it could be a long season for those clubs.

AFC South - Could this be the best division in football? At this point, it looks like it. Obviously, they are strong at the top with Indianapolis. But the rest of the division has looked very solid. Jacksonville is coming off of a win against Denver, Tennessee looked very impressive Monday night, and the Texans are 2-1. Not a bad start to the year for these teams.

AFC West - What has happened to this division? I thought Denver and San Diego would be 2 of the best teams in the AFC... both have looked very mediocre. What in the world has happened to those 2 teams? Denver has struggled for 2 wins against mediocre teams, and then got beat by Jacksonville. The San Diego offense has not picked up where it left off last year. Elsewhere, dormants Kansas City and Oakland have done what we've expected.

NFC East - How can the Eagles (and more specifically Donovan McNabb), look so bad over the first 2 weeks, and then score 56 in week 3? This is what I don't understand about the NFL. On a positive note for this division, the Cowboys appear to be the best team in the NFC. Of course, that could change next week... it's not really that hard to envision 0-3 St. Louis beating Dallas next week.
NFC North - The Bears have finally decided (according to reports) to go with Brian Griese as starter. I'm glad it only took them a little over a year to see that Grossman wasn't that good. Green Bay is playing great at 3-0, though I'm not sure how long an offense that consists of no running game and Brett Favre throwing 45 passes per game is going to last. But you have to give credit where it's due... this is working so far.

NFC South - Ladies and gentlemen, the worst division in the NFL! Seriously, what happened to the Saints? They look like the worst team in the NFL at this point... and they were my preseason NFC Super Bowl pick! Elsewhere, the Panthers are talented but inconsistent. Meaning the Bucs look like they may be the best team in the division. The defense is back.

NFC West - I don't really know what to make of this division, other than the fact that the Rams are a lot, lot, lot worse than I thought they would be. Everyone is else is so maddeningly inconsistent. I don't know what to think.

What has surprised you most about the NFL season so far?

College Football Power Rankings - 9/25

Not a whole lot of surprises at the top this week... for the most part, just about everything we expected to happen did. The only team from my top 13 from last week that lost was Penn St., and that wasn't entirely unexpected. Anyway, the rankings.

1. USC (1) - They once again were dominant offensively, beating Washington St. 47-14. OK, so Washington St. isn't really good, but a dominant win is always nice.

2. LSU (2) - They weren't dominant, but they were were good enough to beat a pesky South Carolina team. I know it was raining, but there has to be a little bit of concern about the passing game... Matt Flynn was just 8/19 for 70 yards. Though the solid trio of RBs made sure that wasn't going to cause any problems.

3. West Virginia (3) - Most polls that I have seen are putting the Mountaineers at 5, but I'm still big fans. They had a dominating effort against an OK East Carolina team. My boy Noel Devine finally got slowed down, but they had plenty of other options offensively to pick up the slack.

4. Oklahoma (5) - Another week, another beating. This time Tulsa was the opponent in a 62-21 romp. Also, after Miami beat Texas A&M on Thursday, it looks like Oklahoma's thorough beating of Miami may be a little more impressive than I thought.

5. Florida (4) - One week after looking so good in dismantling Tennessee, they squeak by Ole Miss. Thank goodness for Tim Tebow... 261 yards passing, 166 yards rushing, and 4 total TDs.

6. Texas (7) - Finally a dominant performance from this talented Texas offense.

7. California (6) - An impressive win over Arizona, just taking care of business. This week comes their biggest test so far of the season (yes, bigger than Tennessee), as they head to Oregon (who we might see a little later) in what should be a fantastic game.

8. Rutgers (8) - They had the week off.

9. Ohio St. (9) - In a year when the other Big 10 teams have been very inconsistent, the Buckeyes keep plugging along, this time notching a 58-7 win over Northwestern. Chris Wells needed only 12 carries to reach 100 yards in that game. The Buckeyes should have another cakewalk this week as they head to Minnesota.

10. Oregon (NR) - The offense continues to be extremely explosive, scoring 55 points on Stanford. There might not be a more entertaining duo to watch than Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart for the Ducks.


JUST MISSED:

Wisconsin (10) - After another mediocre performance by the Badgers, they fall out of my top 10. They had a battle with Iowa at home, winning just 17-13. On the bright side, PJ Hill is picking up right where he left off, with 500+ yards and 7 TD after 4 games.

Boston College - Not exactly an inspiring performance against Army, but they got the job done.

Clemson - Nice win for Clemson against NC State, coached by Tom O'Brien. They were again led by Davis and Spiller, who each had over 100 yards and scored a TD.

What changes would you make to my rankings?

Dear Chicago Bears,

Rex Grossman is going to be fine. Yes, I know that with an average QB the team would again be Super Bowl contenders, because the defense is superb, but really, Rex Grossman is a young guy that's still learning the ropes. I'm sure he's going to be just fine. Just keep giving him starts.

Signed,
the rest of the NFL

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 3

I'm hovering around the .500 mark... that's my goal for this year, but I wouldn't mind at least getting some type of cushion. Anyway, week 3 picks.

Cardinals (+8) over Ravens
I just don't trust the Ravens offense enough to cover an 8-point spread right now. I mean, they only scored 20 against the Bengals, and they tried to give the game to the Jets last week. I like them to win, but probably not cover.

Panthers (-3.5) over Falcons
I have a really hard time picking Panthers games... they're just so inconsistent from week to week. So this reflects more on my feelings about the Falcons rather than the Panthers.

Redskins (-3.5) over Giants
The Giants suck. That's about all that there is to it. Their defense has been terrible, Eli isn't quite 100%, and their starting RB is hurt. Other than that, they've had a great start to the year.

Rams (+3.5) over Bucs
I came into the season really thinking the Rams were going to be a solid team, and they've obviously been very disappointing. Things might be even tougher without Orlando Pace, but I'll put my faith in them for one more week.

Bengals (+3.5) over Seahawks
We all know about the defensive problems the Bengals had this week, but the Seahawks haven't exactly been tearing it up offensively thus far. I mean, the Cardinals held them to 20 points. I just think the Bengals offensive will be a little too explosive.

Chargers (-5) over Packers
Brett Favre has played well so far, but let's see how he does against a good defense. I'm still a bit skeptical about the Packers offense. Things won't get too much easier for LDT going against a good Packer defense, but he shouldn't be bottled up quite as much as in the past 2 weeks.

49ers (+9) over Steelers
I've been as big of a fan as anyone of the Steelers so far, but 9 points is a large spread against a solid 49ers team is a lot. I like the Steelers to win this game, but I think the Niners are solid enough on both sides of the ball to keep things interesting.

Lions (+6) over Eagles
I like the Eagles in this one, but they are banged up a bit defensively, and McNabb has been pretty atrocious thus far. The Lions played atrociously last week, but a lot of that had to do with JT O'Sullivan playing almost a full half, and he was awful. If Kitna is healthy, I'll take the Lions to cover.

Raiders (-3) Browns
A rejuvenated LaMont Jordan should have a big game against the hapless Browns defense. I just hope that I don't have to watch this game.

Jets (-3) over Dolphins
I have absolutely no idea what to think of this game. So I'll take the home team.

Patriots (-16.5) over Bills
The spread is a little large, but with the performance of the Patriots over the past couple of weeks, it's hard to argue. And it's hard to argue picking against them, especially with how poorly JP Losman has played thus far.

Vikings (+3) over Chiefs
Kelly Holcomb looks like he'll be the starter this week for the Vikings... that is probably good news, short term. Larry Johnson won't find many holes to run against in this Vikings defense.

Colts (-6) over Texans
The Texans have been very impressive so far, but they will be without Andre Johnson this week. That should cause some problems for Matt Schaub.

Broncos (-3) over Jaguars
The Jaguars are the other team that I hate picking their games... I just don't know what is going to happen with them week-to-week. I assume we'll see a heavy dose of MJD and Fred Taylor (especially against the Broncos real good pair of corners), but who knows. Not me. I'll take the Broncos and hope they don't burn me for the 3rd straight week.

Cowboys (+3) over Bears
Not real confident about this one, especially since it is in the Windy City. But the Bears have 1 offensive TD in 2 games, and that came on a pass to a backup O-Lineman. Hope the Bears D/ST can score enough to keep up with the Cowboys.

Saints (-4) over Titans
If Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and the rest of the Saints offense struggles for the 3rd straight week, it might officially be time for fantasy owners everywhere to worry.

Last Week: 7-9
Season: 15-15-2