NFL First Round Playoff Predictions

With 4 games on the slate, it's time to give my picks. Judging from my picks against the spread this year you probably don't want to put any weight in these picks(!), but what's the point of having a blog if you can't prognosticate? Anyway, without further ado...

Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks
The Skins are one of the hottest teams in the NFL coming in, while the Seahawks have been a little up-and-down in winning an awful division. I could look at matchups, but it just feels like the Redskins will win this game. That isn't really a good reason to pick them to win, but they're playing with so much emotion, so much efficiecy offensively... I see them going into Seattle and winning.
Redskins 24, Seahawks 20

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It's easy to see all of the offensive talent for the Giants, and to see how well they played for 3 quarters against New England and declare them the favorite. But not so fast. Too often we have seen how unpredictable Eli Manning's performance can be, especially now without Jeremy Shockey. Certainly the Giants have the firepower to potentially make a run in the NFC... but they also have the volatility to go down in round 1. I'll take the efficient Jeff Garcia to complement the stout Bucs defense as they move on.
Bucs 23, Giants 16

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Everyone seems to be on the Jaguars bandwagon right now, and it's pretty easy to see why. A dual-headed monster at RB, a sneaky good QB in David Garrard, and a very good defense. Meanwhile, the Steelers have been pretty inconsistent, and they'll be playing without Willie Parker. I'll also be hopping on the Jags Bandwagon, at least for this week.
Jaguars 27, Steelers 17

Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers
The Titans only hope is to stop LDT and force Philip Rivers to beat them, which they are capable of doing. But the Chargers might be playing a little bit too well even if LDT is slowed. They've won 6 in a row, and Philip Rivers is starting to display last year's form. I don't see the Titans scoring enough points to upset San Diego.
Chargers 31, Titans 13

College Football BCS Bowl Predictions

Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. USC
It's a nice story with how Ron Zook has quickly changed around the fortunes of the Illini program. That he has gotten them into the Rose Bowl in such a short amount of time is commendable. However, they're not nearly at the talent level of USC overall. They have some playmakers offensively (Juice Williams, Rashard Mendendhall), and they'll need these guys to be very good to keep this one close. However, the overall talent disparity will be a bit too much here.
USC 35, Illinois 14

Sugar Bowl: Hawaii vs. Georgia
Obviously, this one is going to be getting comparisons to the Boise/Oklahoma game from a year ago. Hawaii is the exciting, undefeated, unconventional Mid-Major, while Georgia is the more predictable power conference team. The predictions may be apt. Last year, Oklahoma was deeper, more talented, and favored to win. This year, Georgia is deeper and more talented. Here is the thing though... if Boise St. played Oklahoma 10 times, Oklahoma probably would have won 8 or 9 of those games. I think the same this year. Hawaii can win if they very well, but I'm not betting on it.
Georgia 38, Hawaii 28

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
This is an interesting matchup between teams with different styles. The speed of West Virginia is something that the Sooners have not had to contend with this year. However, I think the Sooners defense will be good enough to slow them down, especially with the uncertainty with the Mountaineer's coaching.
Oklahoma 27, West Virginia 24

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Kansas
To be perfectly honest, this game doesn't excite me all that much. Kansas is a great story to be sure, but realistically, they probably didn't deserve a BCS spot over Missouri. Virginia Tech won a bad ACC. I think Virginia Tech is the favorite, but Kansas is a bit underrated in terms of the firepower that they do have offensively. I'll take them in a mild upset.
Kansas 27, Virginia Tech 21

Championship Game: LSU vs. Ohio St.
Yawn. Another Title game appearance for Jim Tressel. What a fantastic coach he is. I thought this was a rebuilding year for the Buckeyes? Still though, it's hard to see them matching up with the speed and talent level of LSU. On both sides of the ball, I see LSU as being a faster and stronger. Maybe not quite a drubbing like last year's Title game, but I see the same result - an SEC team beating OSU.
LSU 34, Ohio St. 20

What are your picks?

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 17

The final week of the season! Unfortunately, I'll basically need to run the table to reach .500. Hmmm... maybe next year. Anyway, the week 17 picks:

Patriots (-13.5) over Giants'

Rams (+6) over Cardinals

Falcons (-1) over Seahawks

Panthers (-3) over Bucs

Bengals (-3) over Dolphins

Bengals (-10) over 49ers

Lions (+4) over Packers

Jaguars (+6.5) over Texans

Vikings (-3) over Broncos

Saints (-2) over Bears

Chiefs (+6.5) over Jets

Eagles (-7.5) over Bills

Steelers (-3.5) over Ravens

Chargers (-8.5) over Raiders

Colts (+6) over Titans

Redskins (-9) over Cowboys

Last Week: 6-9
Season: 101-111-10

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

Hope you have a good holiday!

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 16

Only 2 more weeks left as we continue on with the drive to .500!

Panthers (+10.5) over Cowboys

Cardinals (-10) over Falcons

Browns (-2.5) over Bengals

Chiefs (+4.5) over Lions

Bears (+8.5) over Packers

Texans (+7) over Colts

Jaguars (-13) over Raiders

Vikings (-6.5) over Redskins

Patriots (-22) over Dolphins

Eagles (+3) over Saints

Bills (+2.5) over Giants

Ravens (+10.5) over Seahawks

Bucs (-5.5) over 49ers

Jets (+8.5) over Titans

Chargers (-8.5) over Broncos

Last Week: 5-9
Season: 95-102-10

Hobey v. Heisman: Who Has The Edge?

Hey it's stephen a back again, doing another guest post. Hopefully as time goes by I'll be more of a regular contributor, although somehow I don't think I'll ever be the main attraction here.

Admittedly I saw this idea on the web a couple of years ago (ESPN.com perhaps?) but I thought it was a great idea so hey why not. Today I'm going to take a look at past Heisman winners and how they stack up professionally against winners of the Hobey Baker Award (for those of you who don't know, the Hobey is given annually to the best player in college hockey).

2007: Heisman: Florida Soph. QB Tim Tebow (3132 yards, 29 TD, 6 Int, 22 rush TD)
Hobey: North Dakota Soph. Forward Ryan Duncan (31 G, 26 A, 17 PPG)
Obviously neither of these players are playing professionally yet, as Tebow has another year of mandatory college football left, and Duncan is in the middle of his junior season at North Dakota. Advantage: Push

2006: Heisman: Ohio St QB Troy Smith (2542 yards, 30 D, 6 Int)
Hobey: Denver Defenseman Matt Carle (11G, 42 A)
Smith is right now getting time as quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens, who by the way just lost to the Dolphins. Carle on the other hand, signed with the San Jose Sharks right after his final college season, and Carle is having an NHL impact right now.
Advantage: Hobey

2005: Heisman: USC RB Reggie Bush (1740 yards, 16 TD)
Hobey: Colorado College Forward Marty Sertich (27 G, 37 A)
Bush, the 2nd pick in the NFL draft the following year, is currently out for the season with a knee injury, but many football pundits consider him to be a once in a generation back. Sertich recently signed with the Dallas Stars and is playing for their AHL afilliate in Iowa.
Advantage: Heisman

2004: Heisman: USC QB Matt Leinart (3322 yards, 33 TD, 6 Int)
Hobey: Minnesota-Duluth Forward Junior Lessard (30 G, 31 A)
Leinart is currently out for the season with a broken collarbone (must be a USC thing), but had showed decent growth as a QB in his second season with the Cardinals. Lessard is now a teammate of Sertich's with the Iowa Stars
Advantage: Heisman

2003: Heisman: Oklahoma QB Jason White (3846 yards, 40 TD, 10 Int)
Hobey: Colorado College forward Peter Sejna (36 G 46 A)
Jason White currently operates a memorabilia store in Oklahoma, whereas Sejna splits time with the St. Louis Blues and their AHL affiliate.
Advantage: Hobey

2002: Heisman: USC QB Carson Palmer (3639 yards, 32 TD, 10 Int)
Hobey: Minnesota Defenseman Jordan Leopold (20 G, 27 A)
Palmer is considered by many to be the 3rd best quarterback in the NFL behind Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, although that hasn't transferred into team success, as the Bengals will finish below .500 yet again. Leopold has played for the Calgary Flames and Colorado Avalanche, and played for the 2006 US Olympic team.
Advantage: Heisman

2001: Heisman: Nebraska QB Eric Crouch (1510 yards, 7 TD, 1115 rush yards, 18 TD)
Hobey: Michigan St G Ryan Miller (31 Wins, .950 Save Pct., 1.32 GAA)
Crouch never played QB in the NFL, but tried to make it as a safety for the Rams. Miller meanwhile, keyed the Buffalo Sabres playoff run last spring
Advantage: Hobey

2000: Heisman: Florida St QB Chris Weinke (4167 yards, 33 TD, 11 Int)
Hobey: Boston College D Mike Mottau( 6 G, 37 A)
Weinke is 2-17 as a starting QB in the NFL and holds the record for most losses consecutively by a QB, with 15. Mottau was a 3 time AHL all-star and currently plays for the New Jersey Devils
Advantage: Hobey

It looks like the Hobey Baker Award takes the cake here, however I think this little study has shown that professional busts come in all sports. Which sport do you think has the edge?

NFC Playoff Picture

After the Vikings escaped with a win over the Chicago Bears Monday night, it appears things are slowly starting to take shape in the formerly muddled NFC playoff picture.

The only thing that we know for certain is that Dallas, Green Bay, Seattle, and Tampa Bay will all be playing into January. Beyond that, it would appear that the Giants are safe at 9-5, but I'm not so sure. They are not playing well, and they have a tough schedule coming up: AT Buffalo, vs. New England. I think it is not at all out of the realm of possibility that the Giants lose 2 and a team like the Saints can get to 9-7 and push them out.

After that, the Vikings currently hold the 6th seed at 8-6, and thus they control their own destiny. In fact, if they beat Washington next week and New Orleans loses to Philadelphia, the Vikings will clinch a playoff berth.

AT 7-7, both the Redskins and Saints could make the playoff even if they finish 8-8, but more likely they must win out to have a chance. New Orleans hosts Philly next week and goes to Chicago in Week 17, while the Redskins go to Minnesota next week before hosting Dallas in Week 17. Looking at the schedules as well as at how well the teams are playing, I have a hard time seeing Washington making it in, but the Saints could certainly sneak in there.

Elsewhere, Carolina is technically alive (I believe) at 6-8, but they would have to win out and get a lot of help if they're going to make it. So basically they are done.

What are your thoughts on how things will play out? Personally, I think the Vikings will nab the 5th seed... they have 2 winnable games next week, and I have a hard time seeing the Giants winning out. After that, it would not at all shock me to see the Saints at 9-7 and in the playoffs, but I'll go with the odds and put the Giants as my 6th seed.

How do you think it will end up?

The Shotgun, The 'Gun, and the Shotgun Spread Offense

Ferment is abroad in football. The possibilities widen; new ideas are accepted and implemented within hours of conception. People are interested now in not just who their favorite players are, but what are these fascinating schemes. With the internet comes accessibility: now your high school runs what your favorite college team is not sophisticated enough to do. The ideas come from everywhere. The innovators are born on disparate staffs and the ideas ebb, flow, and crash together constantly, daily, hourly. Now even the big, famous schools must wade into the waters to hire those comfortable with its movements: Rodriguez to Michigan, Tony Franklin hired by Auburn.


This ferment is ideal. A decade ago ideas were stagnant. Football was only for the purists, and if you failed to replicate the Platonic ideals, then you hadn't been schooled properly. Five years later, the beginnings of the ferment - turbulent, muddy, a vigorous undercurrent. Ten years later - today, now - the waters are flooding, spilling onto that once sacred ground.

Rich Rodriguez, the Johnny Appleseed of the Spread, has been hired by Michigan. The Pundits talk of the "the Spread," the "Gun Spread," the "Gun Option," the "Airraid," the "Zone Read," and the "Pistol." The coaches talk of these too, but they also talk of the "Gun Jets Sweep," and the "Gun Jets," the "Gun Veer," and the "Gun Triple."

The ideas stir. They stir football itself. This reexamination of all that came before - restless, relentless. The search for good ideas, new ideas, ideas never before dreamed of. This - the ferment - is not a fad. It cannot be. It is football itself: there's been a synthesis.

The 'Gun and its history.

The shotgun itself, the perceived center of all of this "newness," has its roots in the beginning of football, however.
Most commentators, of course, seem to deify the "shotgun" itself as an entire offense rather than what it is - a particular way to align your quarterback and perform the center-exchange. Ironically, however, they also take a restricted view of the gun’s presence in football history, presuming it was invented, alternative, in the 60s (Red Hickey), the 70s (Tom Landry), the 80s (pick somebody), the 90s (pick somebody), or the 2000s (whoever they root for, or often Urban Meyer or some passing coach). Regardless, it's somewhat silly.

The point of this article is to show that (a) the shotgun itself has ancient roots, and is not some passing fad, (b) and, thus by inference, the ferment and change I spoke of in the introductory paragraphs is not as limited as how you align your Quarterback.

Indeed, I imagine that the shotgun's history would surprise many such commentators. The “gun” was in many ways the standard back in the early days of football. Especially consider that the under-center snap was not invented until at least a decade or so after football itself was invented, if not longer. In fact, in the fairly early days, players had to actually short-kick the ball with their heel (don’t ask me!) back as a form of snap. Also, the gun and the pass have been around since 1908-1910 or so, since the forward pass was legalized and encouraged by rule changes due to the “brutal” nature of football at a time when the “single-wing” and almost all offenses involved shotgun type snaps which lead to melees resulting from attempts to advance the ball.

To demonstrate the trends, I think there are four good “watershed” type games that either were representative for the time or helped us get where we are today, though there are surely others.

1. Notre Dame vs. Army Part I

In 1913, Notre Dame traveled to West Point to face the heavily favored Army. Final score: 35-13, Notre Dame. Knute Rockne, the famous future coach but then little-known end, caught an array of passes from one Gus Dorais, who that day nearly revolutionized the position. The legend grows larger over time, and the forward pass had been legal for roughly eight years, but that day Dorais completed 14 of 17 passes for 243 yards and three touchdowns. Dorais even completed a pass to Rockne that, at the time, was the longest pass play ever. But more importantly, this game was the coming out party for the forward pass. Although this story might be collateral to the shotgun story – indeed Dorais was already operating out of the “gun” – but few would question that the forward pass still defines football today.

2. Notre Dame vs. Army Part II

By 1925, Rockne was Notre Dame’s coach. We all have heard these famous lines:

Outlined against a blue-gray October sky, the Four Horsemen rode again. In dramatic lore they are known as Famine, Pestilence, Destruction and Death. These are only aliases. Their real names are Stuhldreher, Miller, Crowley and Layden.

The four horsemen were four backfield mates who played for now-coach Knute Rockne. Most people forget the next few lines from that paragraph:

They formed the crest of the South Bend cyclone before which another fighting Army football team was swept over the precipice at the Polo Grounds yesterday afternoon as 55,000 spectators peered down on the bewildering panorama spread on the green plain below.

Notre Dame won 13-7. To our story, this game was not so much a watershed as it was representative of the time: Notre Dame ran an all-shotgun offense known as the “Notre Dame Box.” The “box” was a shotgun formation where the center could snap to any one of four guys, depending how they lined up. So, the most famous galloping backfield of all time played in the Gun, however bizarre it would appear by today’s standards.



This should serve as a firm rebuttal to the argument that the shotgun is currently new or (more popularly) was invented only to pass. This is flatly wrong. From the beginning of football, the shotgun was about running the football and faking. Indeed, it was even about power. Just ask the Four Horsemen.

3. Chicago Bears vs. Washington Redskins – The day the shotgun died.

In 1940 Bears Coach George Halas unleashed his under center offense on the Redskins on the way to a modest 73-0 victory. The Bears utilized the then-fairly rare “Tee Formation,” where the Quarterback (remember, he was originally so named because of how far back he aligned - the term was a rugby term before it was a football term) would in line up under center with three backs behind him in a straight “Tee.” Using this formation, along with a series of fakes, counters, traps, bootlegs, and other deception Halas’s Bears crushed the Redskins to win the NFL title. Note that the Redskins had beaten the Bears earlier that season.

For the next thirty to forty years, the unequivocal primary method for hiking the ball was the under center snap. This game is also important because it shows that faking, deception, and using multiple ball carriers is not new, nor is it exclusive to the shotgun. It is simply a distinct concept.

After this game the shotgun made a few appearances, most famously with Red Hickey with the 49ers and Tom Landry with the Cowboys. And in the 80s and later in the 90s teams as disparate as the Miami Dolphins with Marino, Purdue with Joe Tiller and Drew Brees, and the Hal Mumme Kentucky Wildcats (with the support of Mike Leach) set quite a number of passing records in the gun. But this modern revolution came about, I believe, because people had to see how you could throw and run from the shotgun.

Although Rich Rodriguez probably deserve smore credit than anyone for spreading the concepts themselves, it was Northwestern’s late-coach Randy Walker who I think turned the football coaching world on its head one blue-skied afternoon in November, 2000.

4. Northwestern vs. Michigan – The Modern Era Dawns.

Northwestern defeats Michigan 54-51. This is shocking enough. Northwestern scored fifty-four points against a Michigan team known for great defense and great defensive talent. Doubly shocking. Quarterback Zak Kustok threw for 322 yards and four touchdowns. Not so shocking from a spread QB in victory. Don’t they always have to throw for this much to win? That’s why they get in the gun, right?

But wait, there’s another stat.

Northwestern Rushing: 332 Yards; 6.64 average per carry. 332 yards.

What? Three-Hundred and Thirty Yards rushing?

How did they do that? Yes their running back had a huge day, but the yards that also made everyone sit up and take notice were the 55 yards from Northwestern’s quarterback, Zak Kustok – hardly Vince Young or Pat White in raw athleticism. But the light went off across the country. If Zak Kustok can do it, maybe my guy can too. And even if he’s not Vince Young, just the threat that he can make the defense pay if they over pursue by getting me eight yards, then let’s do it.

Obviously, not everyone running the spread now saw this game. Even Gun Guru Urban Meyer didn’t start running this offense until his Bowling Green days sometime after this game, and he admittedly went out to others to learn the offense. The shotgun run-game didn’t bubble up inside anyone like a well-spring. But this was the game that changed the landscape.

Where we are are now.


So Randy Walker and Rich Rodriguez blew the doors off. The gun is now fully part of the arsenal for nearly every team, and the sky is the limit on what you can do. The all-eleven offense, the pistol, and the single-wing itself are all part of the calculus. Who knows, maybe we’ll see a major team running the Notre Dame box.

I thought I’d provide a quick summary of some of the factors in the calculus for when you want to use the gun. Observe that many of the factors come from Coach Homer Smith, so I can’t too much credit.

Advantages of the Shotgun

- The QB can get deeper in a given amount of time (whether the 3 yard “pistol” snap or a 7-8 gun for passing)

- Lateral play faking (but not drop back style play action, at least so easily) can be achieved

- Relatedly, the zone-read is a kind of “bootleg-plus” in that instead of calling a blind bootleg, you make the backside defensive end wrong every time)

- Some QB's can see better (i.e. wider field of vision)

- The depth of the QB often forces the defense to expose its pressure plans more clearly

- The RB might be able to pick up a blitz better (i.e. no dropping QB to bump into)

- It does not need a snap count and helps mitigate crowd noise factors (though many still use a snap count)


Disadvantages of the Shotgun

- The QB has to take his eyes off the pass defense and has to watch the ball into his hands. This effect also somewhat reduces the QB’s ability to see the coverage and read changes (Cover 2 to 1, etc.) until after the snap. This is particularly acute for 3-step passes, where you have to catch and throw almost immediately. The read becomes almost exclusively pre-snap.

- The Shotgun alignment makes some lead-plays more difficult. I also would argue that the “gun-option,” as such, is not completely structurally sound in the way other veer plays are. Some gun teams have tried to develop the veer from the gun. Time will tell whether they are successful. (This requires more discussion than I have space for.)

- It becomes a crutch for the QB and an easy way to avoid improving footwork and play faking. I think this is an underrated problem. Footwork in the gun is (a) easier, because it is less, but is (b) prone to getting very, very sloppy. If there is any knock against “spread gun” QBs who go to the Pros, this one of the few viable ones, but can be simply overcome with good coaching.

- It retards the notion of a power run game and shifts more towards deception based delays, options, or draw type run plays. This is not a bad thing, though true.

- It can amplify your QB’s athletic skills, in either direction. If they are very athletic, it can improve their ability to make plays, but if they are not athletic many traditional QB plays – bootlegs, play action, and certain lead-option type run plays - are almost entirely out of the question.

- The footwork of the QB changes as does timing for pass plays. The "mesh" point for hand-offs to the RB change as well. Now Florida offensive coordinator Dan Mullen says this is one reason they run shotgun almost exclusively, so they can practice just one thing and get good at it.

So there are pros and cons. What this mostly counsels is a commitment to what you do, an organized, systematic approach to your offense, and an acknowledgment of where your weaknesses are as well as your strengths. The great shotgun teams work on this consistently, the haphazard teams will consistently both live and die by their sword-of-the-moment.

"Switch It" - Put a Little Hawaii In Your Offense

While the Run & Shoot is over twenty-years old and I have even discussed its demise from most levels of football, the obvious recent R&S success story has been the Hawaii Warriors under lifelong 'Shooter, June Jones. With Colt Brennan (and seemingly anyone else they put back there), they have lit up opposing teams and broken a few scoreboards along the way. It's a great offense.

But let it be known that Jones has adapted some aspects of the traditional Mouse Davis Run and Shoot to his liking, discarding some concepts, adapting others, and overhauling the pass protection. (Hence why my "What Killed the Run and Shoot" thread doesn't keep Jones up awake at night - they simply do different things now.)

In the traditional shoot, there were only a few pass packages, but each had multifarious adjustments for each receiver. They did this by requiring each receiver to identify the defense and each would adjust his route on the fly. The QB would synthesize this information and hit the proper man. As June Jones said when he was still in the NFL: "When our receivers run up the field, they are going to look for one of five coverages. A team may use 50 defenses, but to us it will be one of those five."

Those five coverages were: "(1) Three Deep Zone; (2) Two Deep Zone, (3) Two Deep Man Under; (4) Man Free [One safety deep with man-to-man underneath]; (5) Four Across Man (Blitz)."

Now, this was quite successful for many years. Without overemphasizing the impact, the rise of the zone blitz muddied the waters for many of these reads and hastened the R&S's retreat. I say I don't want to emphasize this too much, because the zone blitz has been around for at least as long as the Shoot, so it wasn't just that.

But there has been a definite trend among Shooters to reduce the number of reads that receivers must make. Even Jones has reduced the amount of reading in his offense and appears to have discarded a few of the concepts completely, while only adjusting others. And yet, the "reading" is what makes the Shoot the Shoot. So that is my topic today.

I have said many times that regardless of whether you see teams run the "Run and Shoot" per se (and I am talking about the "Run and Shoot" as a distinct system, not just a generic term for any ol' spread team), you will constantly see the R&S concepts and you will continue to see them for a long time. So in this post I want to discuss one of the most common and successful concepts, the Switch.

The Switch

The Switch is one of the Shoot mainstays, but the concept has transcended the offense and now chunks of NFL and College playbooks are dedicated to the "switch" - often from coaches who would otherwise show nothing but disdain for the now supposedly discredited offense. But to many coaches, players, and fans, the play is still shrouded in mystery.

The concept is, at core, a two man concept. Two receivers release and "switch": The outside guys angle inside for 5-6 yards before pushing vertical, while the inside guy runs a "wheel route" under the outside guy, rubs right off of his hip, and then turns up the sideline. That's when they play gets interesting.

In the original R&S, each receiver had the five delineated options depending on what coverage he saw. They could break it quick on slants, run vertical routes, post routes, curls or in cuts. When it worked it was beautiful. But sometimes, to borrow Yeats's phrase, "things fall apart." Or simply it took immense practice time for receivers to get good at running the play.

Indeed, it is simpler to teach this kind of thinking when all of your routes adjust. But it's not quite so simple if you run curl-flat as your bread and butter play, with no reading, as many teams do. And yet. the play thrives.

The Reads

Some coaches have installed the switch and simply eliminated the reads entirely. This is a sound approach, and it captures the initial beauty of the play: the "rub" the two switching receivers create against man. And it still works as a kind of "vertical stretch" where the two receivers can put deep defenders in a bind with one down the sideline and another in the seam, especially if a backside receiver runs in the seam as well.

But the play's potency is in its variance. And you can be variant without overly complex reads. How? Here is how I suggest running the play, as dithered from the best College, Pro, and High School minds who use this concept.

The Routes

Below is a basic diagram of the route.



The reads are as follows:

Inside Receiver: The inside receiver will come under the outside guy on his route, and wheel up the sideline. All he is looking for is whether there is someone deeper than him in the deep one-third of the field. Or, if the guy on him is playing him in man, he just asks: "He's even? I'm leaving! (Running deep) He goin? I'm stayin." It's as simple as deciding whether you could get open deep or not. If the defender stays deep, the receiver will stop at 10-12 yards and settle and curl back to the Quarterback.

Outside Receiver: The outside guy will stem his route inside and then push up the seam. His read is simple:

- Middle of the Field Closed (I.e. Is there a single deep safety in the middle of the field, like in Cover 3?) - Run a seam.

- Middle of the Field Open (I.e. Are there two deep safeties with no one deep down the middle?) - Run a square in at 12 yards.

I have previously described the nuances of this MOFO/MOFC read. Now, this might sound a bit tricky, but this is the one, core "reading" principle that any receiver can quickly identify both before and after the snap, and in most cases it is quite intuitive: don't run into coverage.

Below is the route against a few coverages to show how it would play out.

Cover 3



And Cover 2



QB Read:

The QB's read is not difficult. It is a pure progression read, though pre-snap and post-snap he will identify 2-high and 1-high so he knows what he's looking for. Against 1-high he will look at the F/S (deep middle safety's) movement. He will peek for the backside seam but read (1) inside switcher, (2) outside switcher, and (3) outlet to running back.

Final Concerns

One of the purposes of this article was to show that this concept, native to the Run and Shoot, can be run in many offenses. I have shown it so far in a very Shoot friendly formation. But do not be fooled: this route can be run by any two line of scrimmage receivers, in nearly any offense. See the diagram below with the Switch with play-action from the I formation. Again, you can run this from any formation you like.



And finally, if one did adopt to their offense (or you begin to notice it on television), there are further adjustments you can make. One of the long-time best has been the "Switch-Smash," shown below.



On this route the outside receiver stems inside and then pushes to 12 yards before running a corner route, while the inside receiver "wheels" out and pushes to 5-6 and then hitches back. He then delays briefly, and if the QB does not immediately deliver the ball, he will work to find the opposite spot or burst and lose his man to man defender. This is a great change up, particular against a team that runs Cover 2.


Grab-Bag

As a final parting shot, I will show you a few more variations with what you can do with this play. The concept is simple, so you can build on it or combo it as you like.

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2007: Week 15

I realize I missed Thursday's game... finals have been the death of me (well, not quite, but you know what I mean) this week. Anyway, my picks as we are nearing the end of my drive to .500!

Bengals (-8) over 49ers

Ravens (-3.5) over Dolphins

Eagles (+10.5) over Cowboys

Packers (-9.5) over Rams

Colts (-10.5) over Raiders

Patriots (-23) over Jets

Cardinals (-3.5) over Saints

Redskins (+4.5) over Giants

Jaguars (+3.5) over Steelers

Lions (+10) over Chargers

Seahawks (-7.5) over Panthers

Falcons (+13.5) over Bucs

Titans (-4) over Chiefs

Vikings (-10) over Bears

Last Week: 9-6
Overall: 90-93-10

Stadion Sepakbola Indonesia

Stadion Sepakbola Indonesia ini merupakan tulisan rintisan mengenai beberapa stadion yang tersebar diseluruh propinsi di Indonesia yang digunakan untuk pertandingan sepakbola dibawah naungan Persatuan Sepakbola Seluruh Indonesia (PSSI) yang saya kembangkan untuk para pecinta sepakbola di seluruh Indonesia, dan demi kesempurnaan tulisan ini silahkan anda memberikan informasi dan masukannya.

Dalam tulisan ini saya juga membagi beberapa stadion-stadion sepakbola menjadi beberapa kategori penilaian untuk ukuran Indonesia yaitu kategori A (sangat baik sekali), B+ (sangat baik), B (baik), C+ (cukup baik),C (cukup), D+ (hampir cukup), D (kurang), dan E tidak saya masukan dalam tulisan ini.. Atas kekurangan dan keterbatasan pengetahuan saya berharap para pecinta sepakbola dapat memakluminya.

Stadion 17 Mei Banjarmasin

Stadion Andi Mattalata Makassar

Stadion Bahurekso Kendal



Stadion Batakan Balikpapan (2011)

Stadion Benteng Tangerang



Stadion Brawijaya Kediri



Stadion Datu Adil



Stadion Depati Amir Pangkal Pinang



Stadion Dipta Gianyar



Stadion Gajayana Malang



Stadion Gedebage Bandung (2012)



Stadion Gelora 10 November Surabaya



Stadion Gelora Bumi Kartini Jepara



Stadion Gelora Bung Karno Jakarta



Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo Surabaya (2011)



Stadion Gelora Delta Sidoarjo



Stadion Gelora Sriwijaya Palembang

Stadion Haji Agus Salim Padang



Stadion Haji Dimurtala Banda Aceh



Stadion Harapan Bangsa Banda Aceh



Stadion Jalak Harupat Kab.Bandung



Stadion Jatidiri Semarang



Stadion Kamal Junaidi Jepara



Stadion Kamal Muara Jakarta



Stadion Kanjuruhan Malang



Stadion Kie Raha Ternate



Stadion Klabat Manado



Stadion Krakatau Steel Cilegon



Stadion Kuningan Jakarta



Stadion La Patau Bone



Stadion Lebak Bulus Jakarta



Stadion Lubuk Pakam Deli Serdang



Stadion Maesa Tondano Minahasa



Stadion Maguwoharjo Sleman



Stadion Malinau



Stadion Manahan Solo



Stadion Mandala Jayapura



Stadion Mandala Krida Yogyakarta



Stadion Muara Ambang Bolaang Mongondow



Stadion Mulawarman Bontang



Stadion Nasional Pekanbaru (2012)



Stadion Ngurah Rai Denpasar



Stadion Palaran Samarinda



Stadion Pendidikan Wamena



Stadion Perjiwa Tenggarong (2009)



Stadion Persiba Balikpapan



Stadion Persikabo Bogor



Stadion Purnawarman Purwakarta



Stadion R.Soedrasono Pasuruan



Stadion Rondong Demang Tenggarong



Stadion Rumbai Pekanbaru



Stadion Segiri Samarinda



Stadion Sempaja Samarinda



Stadion Senaman Mentikai Palangkaraya



Stadion Siliwangi Bandung



Stadion Sultan Agung Bantul



Stadion Surajaya Lamongan



Stadion Taman Prestasi Bontang



Stadion Teladan Medan



Stadion Tri Dharma Gresik



Stadion Tridadi Sleman

Stadion Wilis Madiun

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