Have a Great Labor Day Weekend!

Me? I'll be off at Valley Fair.

College Football Season Predictions

It's time for my semi-detailed look at the college football season, with some predictions.


ACC Atlantic Winner - Florida St.
ACC Coastal Winner - Virginia Tech
ACC Player of the Year - CJ Spiller

Comments: Virginia Tech looks like they should run away with the Coastal division, but the Atlantic is wide open, as anyone really has a chance to win that division. I went with the most proven commodity, FSU. For the Player of the Year race, even though Spiller is a sophomore, I just love his talent and think he will continue to shine.


Big 12 North Winner - Nebraska
Big 12 South Winner - Texas
Big 12 Player of the Year - Colt McCoy

Comments: I think Nebraska, with the addition of Sam Keller, should have a real nice year and be the favorites in the North. In the South, it should be a really interesting battle as usual between Texas and Oklahoma, but I'll go with the Longhorns on the strength of Colt McCoy, my pick for the POY.


Big East Winner - West Virginia
Big East Player of the Year - Steve Slaton

Comments: I have these dominated by the Mountaineers, but this should be one of the most fascinating conference races once again. Rutgers will be very good behind Ray Rice, but I don't think they'll quite be able to compete with West Virginia or Louisville. Their game on November 8th could very well decide who wins the Big East (and perhaps goes to the national title?), and I like West Virginia at home. As a sidenote, watch out for WVU freshman Noel Devine, who I think is just going to be awesome, and a great fit for that offense. Seriously, go watch one of his highlight videos.


Big Ten Winner - Michigan
Big Ten Player of the Year - PJ Hill

Comments: I love PJ Hill for Wisconsin, which is why he's my pick for the Player of the Year. However, I think Michigan will be just a little too explosive, which is why they're my pick to win the Big 10.


Pac-10 Winner - USC
Pac-10 Player of the Year - John David Booty

Comments: California might have the talent to compete with USC in the Pac-10 this year, but I think the Trojans are going to be just a little too good. Booty has tons of weapons at his disposal, he just has to not screw it up.


SEC East Winner - Florida
SEC West Winner - LSU
SEC Player of the Year - Darren McFadden

Comments: I know Florida is young and they will struggle defensively, but I think the offense will just take off. Elsewhere, LSU is probably the best team in the conference. Darren McFadden is the best RB in the country, so he gets the POY nod.


Heisman: I already went over this, but John David Booty is my pick for Heisman.

National Championship: USC vs. West Virginia
This might look like I'm blatantly copying The Sports Flow, but that is not the case. I think USC is probably the most talented team in the country, and they should fly through their schedule. West Virginia basically has 2 really tough games all year (Rutgers and Louisville) and both of them come at home.

Also, in a bit of a surprise, WEST VIRGINIA is my pick to win the national title. USC is deeper and maybe has more overall talent, but the offense speed that West Virginia has is unrivaled. Seriously, watch this video of Noel Devine:



This is absolutely filthy. He reminds me of a smaller Reggie Bush. Add that to Pat White, Steve Slaton, and Darius Reynaud, and the West Virginia offense should be just sick. That's why they're my pick to win the National Championship.

Who's your pick? Which of my picks do you disagree with?

College Football Week 1 Predictions

Like last year, I'm back for some game predictions. Again, like last year I will pick what I deem to be the 5 biggest games of the week, and then pick who I think will win them.

I'm kinda in a hurry tonight because I'm studying for a test, but here goes.

14 UCLA @ Stanford
The Bruins are ranked highly following a strong finish to last year (including the win over USC), and this looks to be the strongest team in the Karl Dorrell Era (which isn't exactly saying much). The offense should be pretty good as Ben Olson continues to mature, and the defense should be talented again. I like Jim Harbaugh, but UCLA should take care of business on the road.

Wake Forest @ Boston College
Wake Forest was one of the surprises of the College Football world last year after winning the ACC, but they'll have a hard time repeating that. One of the reasons why is because of Boston College, led by experienced QB Matt Ryan. He'll lead BOSTON COLLEGE to a home victory to start out the season.

Oklahoma St. @ 13 Georgia
This figures to be one of the more interesting matchups of the opening weekend. The Bulldogs are the highly-ranked team, but the Cowboys should have an explosive offense led by dual-threat QB Bobby Reid. I would not at all be surprised if Oklahoma St. pulls off the upset, but I'm taking GEORGIA, led by talented Matthew Stafford and powered by the home crowd.

19 Florida St. @ Clemson
The Bowden Bowl should be mighty interesting this year. Florida St. is looking to rebound from a down year, which saw Bobby Bowden shake up the coaching staff. If Drew Weatherford can become more consistent, the offense could be explosive, with weapons like Antoine Smith and Greg Carr. Even so, I'm taking the unranked CLEMSON Tigers, led by perhaps the best RB duo in the nation with James Davis and CJ Spiller.

15 Tennesee vs. 12 California
This game was a bit of a dud last year (especially for me, since I picked California), but should be competitive this time around, as both teams are ranked in the top 15 and have high expectations coming into the season. The Golden Bears need to get off to a better start (obviously), and I think they will. I look for the trio of Nate Longshore, Justin Forsett, and dangerous Desean Jackson to provide just enough offense to beat the Vols. CALIFORNIA is the pick for the 2nd straight year.

Agree? Disagree?

Heisman Candidates

Admittedly, the college football season has kind of snuck up on me. Last year I did a preview of each conference, but this year I haven't really written anything about it. This has been for a couple of reasons... one, I am kinda lazy. Two, for some reason I have been a lot more excited about the start of the NFL season.

But anyway, it's time to end by NCAA Drought and give my top 5 Heisman candidates heading into the year. But first, some of the guys left off:

Ian Johnson (Boise St.) - After his performance against Oklahoma last year would get a lot of support if Boise St. comes close to repeating their undefeated season.

Ray Rice (Rutgers) - Rice was one of the biggest reasons for Rutgers' success last year, but he might have a tougher go of it with Brian Leonard gone.

Mike Hart (Michigan) - Should put up good numbers once again but will be overshadowed by Chad Henne.

Brian Brohm (Louisville) - He'll have to settle for being the #1 pick next April.

Percy Harvin (Florida) - He'll probably be the most exciting player in the nation, but not the Heisman.

Finally, my top 5...

5. Colt Brennan (Hawaii) - Brennan is coming off of a monster year where he threw for somewhere around 2.5 million yards. He kinda strikes me as the guy that we have every year that puts up big number in a smaller conference against mediocre competition, and gets placed on the final Heisman ballot with no real chance of winning. That's what I see happening.

4. Chad Henne (Michigan) - It seems like Henne has been the Michigan QB forever. He'll be in his 4th(!) year of starting, leaving him with plenty of name recognition and familiarity with the offense. With lots of offensive weapons around him, Henne should have a big year for a good Michigan team, putting him in the thick of the Heisman race.

3. Steve Slaton (West Virginia) - May be overshadowed a bit by Pat White, but Slaton is the key cog in the offense, and should put up huge numbers once again in this offense. He'll also be helped by a relatively easy schedule which should put the Mountaineers in the National Title hunt.

2. Darren McFadden - A lot of people are predicting Arkansas to drop a little bit this year, and that could mean that McFadden stays right where he was... 2nd in the Heisman ballot. He's still the best RB in the nation and should be very productive. That's a tough SEC schedule though.

1. John David Booty (USC) - Could Booty be the 3rd USC QB to be the Heisman in 6 years? I think so. For one, he's going to be on a great team, which always helps. But he's very accurate, and should just be able to distribute the ball to the wide variety of playmakers that Pete Carroll has assembled. Great team plus great numbers means that Booty will be a strong contender, and he's my preseason pick for the Heisman.

Who do you think will win the Heisman?

Fantasy Football Draft Tips

I've covered all of my rankings for fantasy football, so I suppose that I should complete my fantasy football talk with some tips that I try to follow during the draft. So here they are, arbitrarily numbered.

1. Know your league's rules - Yahoo had an article about this last week, and I agree (obviously). This is the most important thing to do before the draft. Every league is a little different, so know how many starters you have, know the scoring rules, etc. This is huge in determining how you should value players heading into the draft.

2. Prepare ahead of time - Even if this just involves picking up a fantasy football magazine, don't go into the draft cold. You should at least have a general idea (and hopefully you have a lot more) about where players are ranked, etc. Otherwise you'll wind up like someone in my league a few years ago... taking Shannon Sharpe the year after he retired.

3. Know depth charts - This ties in with #2, but you need to have an idea of who is playing, who's in a competition for the starting spot, etc. This is especially important for running backs, where so many guys are in a close competition for the starting spot.

4. Don't take a kicker until the last round - This is actually a rule I violated in one of my leagues this year, but there is really no reason to take a kicker in round 1. Even if you do get lucky and pick the highest-scoring kicker, the difference between him and a waiver wire kicker on a week-to-week basis is minimal. Grab some extra RB or WR depth in the middle rounds rather than taking a kicker. Is the difference between Robbie Gould and someone like Josh Brown really that significant?

5. Don't draft a backup kicker or backup defense - Again, this kind of ties in with #2, but there really is not a good reason to draft a kicker or defense, especially if you have an elite defense. You may as well hang on to some other guys, and then add a kicker or defense when your starter has their bye week. Otherwise it's just basically a waste of a roster spot.

6. Don't be a homer - Before the 2005 season I drafted Daunte Culpepper very early in one of my drafts. I figured he was going to have another big year, and I would get the added bonus of cheering for him in real life. As it turned out, he sucked a lot, got injured, and both my real favorite team and my fantasy team suffered greatly. It's fine to take a player or two from your favorite team, but don't reach for it and be a homer, or you'll probably regret it.

7. Don't invest too heavily in rookies - I know guys that just love to draft a lot of rookies in fantasy football. I tend to love playing against these guys. Yes, there is the occasional Anquan Boldin or Michael Clayton, but most rookies simply aren't that productive. The one exception seems to be rookies, but I'd still rather have an established guy there than a rookie. This is more risky than online gambling.

8. Pull the trigger on a late-round sleeper - If it's later in the draft, and there's a sleeper you really like, don't be afraid to pull the trigger on him even if it might be a little early. One, if it's late in the draft it won't hurt you too badly if it doesn't pan out. Two, there's nothing worse than someone taking your sleeper right before you and then seeing them have a big year. Don't get too out of hand, but if there's a guy you really like and you think there's a chance he might not be there at your next pick, don't be afraid to pull the trigger.

9. Don't pay too much attention to bye weeks - Certainly looking at bye weeks has its place in fantasy football... for example, you don't want your backup QB to have the same bye week as your starter, but beyond situations like that you shouldn't worry too much. Don't choose someone early that you don't like as much just because of bye weeks. The goal is to have the best team come playoff time... if your top 2 RBs both have byes in week 5, that sucks, but it shouldn't prevent you from taking them both.

10. Have fun and use the league message board - Maybe my favorite thing about fantasy football is that not only is it OK to be blindly insulting on the league message baord, it's ENCOURAGED. So use it early and often... bash others teams, trash talk, etc. And if someone is doing the same to you, pay no attention to it... that's part of the fun of fantasy football.

Any other tips?

Fantasy Football Rankings: Kickers and Defenses

I'm not even going to try and justify these rankings because, well, they're harder to write about. But in the interest of being complete, here are my rankings for Defense and Kickers.

Defense
1. Chicago Bears
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. New England Patriots
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
6. Denver Broncos
7. Miami Dolphins
8. Dallas Cowboys
9. Minnesota Vikings
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
11. Philadelphia Eagles
12. Carolina Panthers
13. Seattle Seahawks
14. Green Bay Packers
15. Buffalo Bills

Kickers
1. Adam Vinatieri
2. Jeff Wilkins
3. Nate Kaeding
4. Shayne Graham
5. Robbie Gould
6. Neil Rackers
7. Josh Brown
8. Jason Elam
9. Matt Stover
10. Josh Scobee
11. David Akers
12. John Kasay
13. Jason Hanson
14. Olindo Mare
15. Stephen Gostowski

Anything you would change on here?

Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends

Since I have looked at the Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Wide Receivers, I suppose it is time to rank the Tight Ends.

1. Antonio Gates - This is pretty clear-cut. Gates is the best TE right now, and it's not even close. He's got all the physical ability, and he's the #1 target in the San Diego passing game. He should have another very good year.

2. Tony Gonzalez - No longer is Gonzalez a threat as the #1 TE, as his days as a top 2 TE might be ending. He still put up solid numbers last year, but the Kansas City offense figures to be a lot worse this year. The O-Line is older and lost some people, and it looks like Brodie Croyle will be their starting QB. That's not really a great combination.

3. Todd Heap - Heap had another solid year for Baltimore and should just be entering his prime. Steve McNair is getting older but got the job done last year, and Heap should again be one of his main targets.

4. Jeremy Shockey - Shockey's yardage numbers went down a little bit last year, but the TD numbers remained strong, with 7. With Tiki Barber gone, I think it's conceivable that the Giants put a little more on Eli Manning's shoulders this year, which would make Shockey one of the beneficiaries of that.

5. Alge Crumpler - For the first time in a long time, Crumpler will be starting the year without QB Mike Vick, who is having some issues of his own. I'm not a big fan of Joey Harrington, but I think he'll be able to find a big target in Crumpler, who's more athletic than he looks.

6. Kellen Winslow - The uncertainty of the Browns QB situation is a little worrisome, but you have to love his athleticism and talent. In his first year of being fully healthy he had 89 receptions for almost 900 yards... if he can just a few more TDs he can become a top 3 fantasy TE.

7. Vernon Davis - A lot of this is just basing off of potential, but he certainly has a lot of it. He is one of the most gifted players athletically in the NFL, and should be better with a little more experience with Alex Smith. He finished last year strong, and though there might be some inconsistencies, he's worth a flier given his talent.

8. Chris Cooley - Cooley is definitely not the most athletic guy, but he gets the job done in the red zone. He has 19 TD catches over the last 3 years, which is pretty good for a TE. With 734 yards and 6 TDs last year, he was a top 5 TE in 2006.

9. Jason Witten - Witten has had a nice run, though for some reason (maybe the addition of Owens) he only had 1 TD last year after scoring 6 in each of the 2 previous seasons. But he should continue to see the ball a lot in this offense, and if he can get into the endzone a few more time he could be a top 5 TE.

10. LJ Smith - Yardage wise, Smith struggled a bit after Donovan McNabb went down with an injury. But luckily for him and the Eagles, McNabb is back and has looked very good this season. Smith should once again be a solid fantasy option at TE.

11. Ben Watson
12. Randy McMichael
13. Owen Daniels
14. Dallas Clark
15. Eric Johnson

What are your thoughts?

Rangers score 30 runs

By now I'm sure you know that the Texas Rangers just barely hung on to beat the Orioles in the first game of a double-header by the score of 30-3. But here was some of the things that I found most interesting about the game:

- Despite scoring 30 runs, the Rangers only scored in 4 different innings. For five separate innings they were held scoreless.

- The Orioles actually had a 3-0 lead, which means the Rangers scored 30 unanswered runs.

- The Rangers #8 and #9 hitters (Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Ramon Vazquez): 8/12, 2 BB, 4 HR, 9 R, 14 RBI. That's called getting production out of the bottom of the lineup.

- Every Rangers started had at least 2 hits. The one guy for the Rangers that came in off of the bench (Travis Metcalf) hit a grand slam.

- The Rangers had 6 HR, but only 2 doubles.

- Wes Littleton of the Rangers, by virtue of pitching the final 3 innings, recorded a save. In a 30-3 game. That is awesome.

Other than the enormity of the runs by the Rangers, what did you find most interesting about the game?

The Adrian Peterson Run

You already know why I think Adrian Peterson will be the NFL Rookie of the Year... but if you need more convincing, or if you just want to see the reason why Vikings' fans are so very excited about this guy, watch this video (if you haven't already):



W-O-W! Watching that gives me goosebumps.

Update on my bold predictions

As you may know, over the course of the summer I made a couple of baseball predictions that I considered bold, or at least bold at the time. I'm kind of short on time tonight, so I'll just give a quick update on them, and see if you think I'll be right or horribly wrong.

- First, in early June, I made a prediction that the Cubs would win the NL Central. At the time, they were 7 games under .500 and 6.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. But still, I was confident that they would rebound and even made a bet with Joe from The Sports Flow.

Right now, they are 4 games over .500 and tied for first with the Brewers. I still feel pretty good about this, and think the Brewers will toil around the .500 mark while the Cubs will wind up with 85-90 wins.

- My other prediction was made in mid-July, and that was that the Yankees would win the AL East. At the time they were 3 games over .500 and 8 games behind the Red Sox.

Barring an amazing comeback (as I write this) against the Angels, they will finish the day 14 games above .500 but 6 games back of the Red Sox. As I kind of feared, they would be a lot better, but it would be tough to overcome a very good Red Sox team. I don't feel as good about this prediction obviously, but they still have a shot, with 6 games still remaining against the BoSox.

What are your thoughts? How many of these predictions will I get right?

NFL Prediction: Adrian Peterson will be the Rookie of the Year

I don't know how this matches up to some other bold predictions I've made, and it may just be blatant homerism, but I'm putting in my prediction right now that Adrian Peterson will be the NFL Rookie of the Year as long as he stays healthy.

I know, he is in a running back by committee system along with Chester Taylor. But just watch this play and tell me who you think will be getting more carries in this offense. Chester Taylor does a lot of things well, but Adrian Peterson is just an amazing runner. He's fast, he's quick, he's powerful... he's got more talent than most running backs in the NFL have. It's only preseason, but Peterson had carries for 70 yards against the Jets, and looked VERY impressive doing it.

But still, both guys will get carries. I understand that. But I do think that as the Vikings get closer to the goal line, Peterson will start to get more carries and more TDs. He's just got a nose for the endzone, and he has the power to get in there. He scored 41 touchdowns in college. Also, as the year goes on, I think Peterson will start to get more and more carries, as his talent will just be too difficult to keep off the field.

There is also some concern about his health, as he was bothered by some injuries in college. Obviously this is a concern, but I think the fact that he won't have to play every down right away will help. While the presence of Chester Taylor will hurt him a little in terms of overall numbers, it will help him stay fresh.

So what do you think? Can Adrian Peterson be the Rookie of the Year, or is this just wishful thinking on my part?

What the Arizona Diamondbacks are doing is pretty remarkable

On the surface, what the Arizona Diamondbacks are doing doesn't seem that out of the ordinary. Sure, no one expected them to have the best record in the NL at 71-54, but stranger things have happened.

But looking at it a little closer, it's actually kind of amazing what they are doing right now. At the time that I write this, even though they are 17 games over .500, they have been outscored by 20 runs on the season. That is kind of amazing when you think about it.

According to their pythagorean record (which is based on run differential), their record should probably look more like 60-65. Which would put them 4th in the division.

Obviously, that fact makes little difference to the Diamondbacks, but it is something to keep in mind because pythagorean record has usually been a fairly good indicator of future results (for examples see the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs). That means that you probably shouldn't be surprised if the Diamondbacks slowly start to struggle, and eventually lose the division lead.

Of course, I've kind of been waiting for that for about a month now, but the Diamondbacks just keep on winning. Baseball is a funny game.

Skol Vikings Audo

I'm off to move back to college this weekend, so I'm finishing up packing, so I'll just point to this link to audio for Skol, Vikings (which, if you're not a Vikings fan, won't mean anything to you). This is especially cool because I'm even more optimistic than usual after the Vikings preseason pounding of the Jets!

It's definitely a great fight song!

Skol Vikings Audio

Skol Vikings! Let's win this game
Skol Vikings! Honor your name.
Go get that first down
Then get a touchdown
Rock 'em, sock 'em, FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT! FIGHT!
Go Vikings, run out the score, you'll hear us yell for more!
V-I-K-I-N-G-S
Skol Vikings, let's go!

Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receiver

With the Quarterbacks and Running Back rankings out of the way, it's time to move on to the Wide Receivers.

1. Steve Smith - As long as he is healthy, he is the #1 fantasy WR in the game right now. He is going to get the ball a lot (in part because there isn't much else to throw to there), and he can do a lot of good things after the catch. He's small, but he's very talented and explosive with the ball.

2. Marvin Harrison - Old reliable. He's still Marvin Harrison, and he still has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball. Need I say more?

3. Terrell Owens - As long as TO doesn't blow up and cause some sort of disturbance within the team (which is always possible with him), I'm expecting a big year from him. Terry Glenn is a year older, which further makes Owens the #1 option on every play. Romo will be looking for TO early and often this year.

4. Chad Johnson - His role will only increase with Chris Henry out for the first 8 games. Also, with Carson Palmer another year healtier after that knee injury, he should have a little more mobility and just be a little bit better. Which is a scary thought for opposing defenses.

5. Torry Holt - In the case of the Rams offense it's kind of like pick-your-poison. They add Drew Bennett to a stellar receiving corps, they have Steven Jackson, and one of the best QBs in football. Bulger will spread the ball around, but Holt is still the first option in the passing game.

6. Larry Fitzgerald - I just love Fitzgerald's game. He's big, strong, physical, has great hands, and will go up and get the football. I expect the Cardinals offense to be improved this year, and he is one of the beneficiaries of that. One of the best WRs in the game without a doubt.

7. Reggie Wayne - Basically the same things said about Marvin Harrison apply here. Wayne is in his prime, and the #1 WR in an offense that has Peyton Manning as its quarterback. That's good enough for the top 10.

8. Javon Walker - Walker is a great talent, but if you look at this numbers from last year this might seem a little high. But on the other hand, I absolutely love Jay Cutler and think he'll be a fantastic QB. Unlike Jake Plummer, he will be able to get the ball down the field, and Javon Walker will be one of the guys that benefits most from that.

9. TJ Houshmanzadeh - Like Johnson, Housh will benefit from the suspension of Chris Henry, as no possible replacement for the Bengals is as talented as Henry. He is really starting to come into his own and become a household name, and I think that continues this year.

10. Roy Williams - If you'll remember, I was really high on Jon Kitna, and part of that is because of Roy Williams. As long as he's healthy, he's another elite talent at the WR position.

11. Randy Moss
12. Andre Johnson
13. Anquan Boldin
14. Lee Evans
15. Marques Colston

SLEEPERS
- Greg Jennings - This isn't a deep sleeper because everyone knows and he's ranked fairly high, but I really liked what I saw out of him last year and I think he will do very well in a pass-first offense.

- Santonio Holmes - He started to come on strong at the end of last year, and that rise should continue as the Steelers look to pass a little more than they have in past years.

- Anthony Gonzalez - He's a rookie, but he's in a fantastic situation in Indianapolis. Brandon Stokley was a viable fantasy option in his prime years in Indianapolis, and I think Gonzalez can have that same impact in the slot.

Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs

After looking at the Quarterback rankings a couple of days ago, it's to look at the heart-and-soul of fantasy football... running backs. They can and usually do make or break your season, so it's doubly important to pick the right one.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - As if there was any doubt. I suspect the numbers will dip a little bit (which, they almost have to after the amazingness that as last year), especially with the switch from Marty Ball to Norv Turner's offense, but LT is still the easy choice as the #1 pick.

2. Steven Jackson - With Larry Johnson still not in camp and coming off of a year in which he had about 1500 carries, I think Jackson is the easy choice as #2. He's becoming a great runner, and is also one of the best pass-catchers out of the backfield, which is big in that offense. He should be excellent again.

3. Larry Johnson - As mentioned, there certainly are concerns about LJ. The Line is not as strong as it has been, the QB situation is very muddled, and he's coming off of a season where he carried the ball a LOT of times. Oh yeah, and he's not signed yet. On the other hand, he's still extremely talented, figures to get the ball a ton, and a deal is reportedly close. Good enough for me.

4. Joseph Addai - I absolutely love Addai this year. For one thing, he's really talented. But more importantly, defenses have to focus on the passing game, which opens up running lanes (as well as dump off passes to Addai). And if that's not enough, his backup is a guy named DeDe Dorsey. This might be a little high, but I think Addai is going to have a huge year.

5. Frank Gore - Gore exploded onto the scene last year, and as long as he can stay healthy should be very productive again. The offense continues to improve around him, with the maturation of Alex Smith, addition of Darrell Jackson, and the athletic skills of Vernon Davis. That means teams won't be able to focus on Gore.

6. Rudi Johnson - Rudi might not put up MVP type numbers, but you know what you're getting. He's really consistent, stays healthy, and is playing in an excellent offense in Cincy.

7. Shaun Alexander - Others are more bullish on Alexander, but I'm not so sure. In year 1 after Steve Hutchinson, he really struggled. He'll get a boost because he'll actually be healthy this year, but I still have a hard time putting him higher.

8. Willie Parker - First off, I never understood why he got the nickname "Fast Willie Parker." I mean, he's fast, but so are a lot of other guys. But that's neither here nor there. The important thing is that he gets a lot of yards, and scored double digit TDs last year. The only concern I have is the change of offensive styles, but he's still going to get his touches.

9. Brian Westbrook - As long as he's healthy, he's great. There's no doubting that. But that's still a concern. Another key is how much he gets the ball. Last year, after Donovan McNabb got hurt, it seemed like Andy Reid started to run the ball more, and Westbrook really shined. Let's see if Reid sticks with the commitment to the run.

10. Laurence Maroney - There are concerns about whether or not Maroney will be able to fully carry the load, but I think he should be OK. With Brady and all the talent that they now have at receiver, he should be able to get ample rest. And score a lot of TDs.

11. Travis Henry - Good running backs tend to flourish in Denver, and Henry should be no exception. All signs point to him being the workhorse back, and that could mean really big numbers.

12. Willis McGahee - McGahee has always been really talented, and I think he'll be very solid in the Baltimore offense. He should definitely get the ball a lot, and rack up the yardage behind a solid O-Line.

13. Reggie Bush - I don't think much detail is necessary here... he's extremely, extremely talented, and should be getting the ball a lot, whether it's running or receiving. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if he starts getting more carries near the goalline... that explosiveness is tough to stop.

14. Ronnie Brown - Brown was disappointing last year, but I think he will bounce back somewhat with a new head coach in Cam Cameron. But there are reasons for concern... namely the lack of a consistent passing game (this is not the Trent Green of 5 years ago) and a young O-Line.

15. Edgerrin James - I'm optimistic about James this year. The passing game should be explosive, meaning defenses definitely won't just be able to focus on Edge. Also, Russ Grimm should come in and help improve the line, and Ken Whisenhunt brings a more run-oriented approach to Arizona.

16. Cedric Benson
17. Brandon Jacobs
18. Maurice Jones-Drew
19. Cadillac Williams
20. Jamal Lewis

SLEEPERS
- LaDell Betts - He should get a lot of chances (probably in the red zone) even with Clinton Portis healthy. If Portis gets hurt again, Betts has the potential to be a top 10 to 15 back.

- Leon Washington - He showed last year that he can be pretty productive when he plays. If Thomas Jones gets hurt (and he's not exactly Mr. Durable), Washington should be a productive starter.

- Tony Hunt - This is digging a little deep, but I think there is potential for Hunt. For one, Westbrook and Buckhalter are not all that durable in Philly, leaving the door possibly open for Hunt later in the year. Also, there's a chance that he could get some goal line carries right now.

Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback

Since I am compiling some lists for my own fantasy drafts, I thought I would give some of my fantasy rankings, starting with the QBs.

1. Peyton Manning - As pretty much everyone who voted said, Peyton Manning is the best fanatsy football QB. He throws for a lot of TDs, a lot of yards, and he has proven to be very durable. Also, the defense might be a little worse this year, which means the offense will have to make up for it. That's good news for Peyton Manning owners.

2. Carson Palmer - Very physically gifted with one of the top WR duos in the NFL. He should continue to be one of the best in his 4th year of starting in the NFL.

3. Marc Bulger - I am very high on him this year. First of all, year 2 under Scott Linehan, a great offensive mind. He's also got a new contract, which should help put him at ease. Plus the addition of Drew Bennett will help make up for the loss of Kevin Curtis. With defenses having to focus a lot on Steven Jackson, I think Bulger will absolutely shine.

4. Tom Brady - I made a mistake last week when I didn't include him in my discussion of the top fantasy QB, but I hope I can somewhat make up for that by putting him 4th. With lots of talented options, he should have some dependable receivers, unlike in years past.

5. Drew Brees - He was absolutely brilliant last year in his first year undr Sean Payton. I think that as defensive coordinators see more of the offense the numbers will drop a little bit, which puts him below these other elite QBs.

6. Donovan McNabb - Don't look now, but McNabb was putting up fantastic numbers last year before he got hurt. If he can remain injury-free, there's a very good chance he could sneak into the top 5 for fantasy QBs.

7. Jon Kitna - No, not a joke. Kitna has one of the best receiving trios in the League, and this will be his 2nd year under Mike Martz. I can easily foresee a big year for Jon Kitna.

8. Matt Hasselbeck - If he is fully healthy, he is still one of the best. Even with the loss of Darrell Jackson the receiving corps is still very strong. Also, Shaun Alexander appears to be healthy, which takes some of the pressure off of the passing game and helps make the offense more explosive. That should mean better numbers for Matt Hasselbeck this year.

9. Jay Cutler - One of the most physcially gifted QBs in the NFL. There was a reason I was so hoping the Vikings would be able to land him in the draft last year... even though he will only be in his 2nd year, I think he's going to become a top 10-15 QB right away.

10. Philip Rivers - With defenses focusing so much on LT, Rivers should again be very efficient. The emergence of Vincent Jackson should help too.

11. Tony Romo - Started off great, then struggled a little down the stretch. Still, he is moderately athletic and is really accurate with the ball. The Cowboys should have a lot of weapons this year, which means good things for Romo.

12. Vince Young - I still have some concerns about his passing ability (and the bad receiving corps for the Titans), but Young is also really dangerous with his feet. He has 7 rushing TDs last year, which is really good.

13. Matt Leinart - A better offensive line, a good trio of receivers, and a solid RB. All the places are in place for the Arizona offense to have some explosiveness. Of course, we've been saying that for the past couple of years now.

14. Eli Manning - It's make-or-break time for Manning. He throws a lot of INTs, but he also puts up pretty solid yardage and TD totals.

15. Brett Favre - Sort of like Eli Manning... he throws a lot of INTs, but you can't argue much with his yardage and TD production.


SLEEPERS
- JP Losman - He actually made some steps towards becoming a solid QB last year. He has the athleticism and tools, but can he fully put it together? If he does, he could actually be a pretty nice fantasy player.

- David Carr - If Jake Delhomme gets hurt or struggles, we might see a productive David Carr, who would finally have something that he never had in Houston... more than one decent player around him.

Football is back!

Normally, I must admit that I don't really care about the preseason. A lot of it is basically glorified scrimmages, and that's not all that exciting.

However, this year, for some reason, I was feeling differently. I was really pumped up to finally see the Vikings in action again, and even watched some other preseason action as well, which I normally do not do.

I think part of this was about finally seeing Tarvaris Jackson playing again. (warning: Vikings talk ahead). Jackson looked poised, accurate, and they moved the ball with the first-team offense. They didn't put a lot of points on the board, but that doesn't really worry me too much since it was the first preseason game.

Also, I was excited to get my first look at Adrian Peterson in a Vikings uniform. He looked a little tentative early, but seemed to get more and more comfortable. Really, he looked like he was about one broken tackle away from taking it the distance on every play. That is one strong dude.

How about you? Are you watching any of the preseason games?

Barry Bonds rookie card

Sorry, I just laughed out loud when I saw this, so I had to post it.

If Joe Morgan wrote for this blog

I did this once before with John Kruk, and now it's time to bring it back. Also, thanks to FJM, just for being awesome in general.

What a year it has been so far! I'm absolutely delighted to be writing this. Seriously, I couldn't be more thrilled.

The biggest news in baseball right now, of course, is that Barry Bonds is the new HR leader. I'd love to talk about it more, but it would just cause too much controversy. For some reason, people don't want to be happy for Barry Bonds, and just enjoy the record. I'm not sure why people have this type of attitude.

The other big story right now is the New York Yankees, who have started to play a lot better and are right in the playoff race. I'm not big on their chances though, because the one thing you need more than anything else is consistency, and they just don't have that. One game they will score 20 runs, the next they will get shut out. Also, the bullpen has not been consistent, and I don't think they have anyone capable of coming in there to help right now. Mariano Rivera is still the best closer in the MLB, but he can't do it by himself.

One of the big surprises this year has been the Milwaukee Brewers, who are atop the NL Central right now. I haven't gotten a chance to watch them play yet this year, but they have a young, exciting team. I have heard a lot of good things about them, but let's see if they can remain consistent enough down the stretch.

Another of the most enjoyable things about this year has been the resurgence of Ken Griffey Jr. for the Big Red Machine in Cincinnati. I try to stay away from using all of these complicated statistics because I prefer to watch the games, but he is 5th in the League in HR right now, and definitely one of the most dangerous players in the MLB.

This is my favorite time of the year. Now that we are down to the final 2 months of the year, we can see which teams can be the most consistent. We can see if teams like the Yankees to scrounge up enough offense to help out veteran winners like Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina. Or if teams like the Boston Red Sox can score the tough runs when it really matters.

Remember, things aren't over until they are over, and certainly at this point no one is out of the playoff race. That's why they play the games.

Thursday Debate: Who is the top Fantasy QB?

I know it's not Thursday, but with fantasy football starting up, and the NFL preseason already technically underway, I thought it was an interesting question. Plus, I have some ulterior motives, as I need to do some research for my own fantasy drafts anyway (wow, that sounds geeky).

As with any league, a lot of this is dependent on what type of scoring system you use. Some leagues award more points for TDs, other more points for yards, or completions, etc. Most leagues are a little bit different, so you have to tailor your strategy to the point strategy of your league. But hopefully you know that already.

The way I see it, there are really 4 Quarterbacks that stand out above the rest, fantasy wise. They are Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, and Marc Bulger. You could make an argument for Tom Brady (especially with the extra weapons the Pats have this year) or maybe Donovan McNabb, but in my mind those 4 are the best fantasy QBs heading into the year.

First, Peyton Manning. He is the model of reliability. For one thing, he has never missed a game in his NFL career. That's helpful. But he always throws for a lot of yards, throws a lot of TDs, and has a good completion percentage. He probably won't match the 2004 numbers ever again, but he's a good bet for around 30 TDs and somewhere around 4000 yards.

Next is Carson Palmer, who is might be the most talented QB physically. He has a rocket arm and is very accurate. He was 5th in the NFL in passing yards last year, has a good completion %, and was top 5 in the NFL in YPA. Also, he continues to have great weapons outside with Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmanzadeh.

The guy that emerged last year was Drew Brees, who thrived under Sean Payton. He led the NFL in passing yards last year while throwing 28 TDs and completing 64% of his passes. And with the news that the injury to LT Jammal Brown is not serious, there is no reason to think he can't repeat those numbers again. The talent at the skill positions is superb and Sean Payton is one of the top offensive minds in the NFL.

Last is Marc Bulger, who I think should explode even more this year. He was 3rd in the NFL in passing yards last year, and he finished with a 3:1 TD:INT ratio. Also, like Brees, he is working for a great offensive coach in Scott Linehan. As long as Bulger has been healthy, he's been a consistent 4000+ yard passer.

But how to rank them? I would probably go like this (again, depending a lot on what type of scoring system you use):

1. Peyton Manning
2. Carson Palmer
3. Marc Bulger
4. Drew Brees

How would you rank them?

Who is the best Fantasy QB?
	Peyton Manning
	Carson Palmer
	Marc Bulger
	Drew Brees
	Other

MLB Power Rankings

First off, I apologize for such a long break in between posts. But if it's any consolation I had a fabulous weekend and don't have any regrets that I wasn't able to spend more time at the computer! So I have that going for me, which is nice.

As always, these rankings reflect how good I think these teams are at the moment, not who has accomplished most so far this year. Thus, they aren't based strictly on W-L records so far, because that would be boring.

1. Boston Red Sox - The Yankees have made a nice run lately, but the Sox have stayed pretty hot themselves. Their W-L record is easily the best in baseball right now, and their Pythagorean record suggests they might be even better than that. They continue to look like the best team in baseball.

2. New York Yankees - In past power rankings and in my bold prediction post I suggested that the Yankees have been the unluckiest team in baseball and their luck would be turning around quickly. Right now, that is happening, as they have won 4 straight and 18 of 24. Their run differential thinks that this correction should continue to occur, which is partly why I still think they'll have a pretty decent shot of winning the division, especially if the Red Sox ever slow down a little.

3. Los Angeles Angels - The Angels are following the "play .500 on the road and win a lot at home" style perfectly. They are nearly 20 games over .500 at home, and about at .500 on the road. That puts them #3 in my power rankings.

4. Cleveland Indians - Cleveland continues to be in a dogfight in the Central, but they were helped by Detroit's little losing streak. They hold a half game lead over Detroit and 5.5 game lead on the Twins right now.

5. New York Mets - They've created a bit of a separation from the rest of the NL East, and right now look like the best team in the National League. They should also get a big boost if Pedro Martinez can come back and be anything close to his old self.

6. Detroit Tigers - The Tigers are slumping, having lost 8 of their last 10. Still, they're 62-49 and right in both the division and Wildcard race. 2 of the Tigers superb outfielders, Gary Sheffield and Curtis Granderson, have struggled a lot lately, which has been part of the problem. But so has the fact that they've given up 67 runs in their last 10 games, including 7 or more runs 6 times. That's not good.

7. Chicago Cubs - I know they're 1 game out of first right now, but I kind of think they're the best team in the Central, though the loss of Soriano for a couple of weeks doesn't help. They were actually tied with the Brewers at one point in the weekend. Like the Yankees, they're a team that has played beneath their Pythagorean record all year long, and while they've gotten closer to evening that out, there is still a little ways to go. Which is why I still think they'll win the Central.

8. Arizona Diamondbacks - Every time I do this or every time I look at the standings I think the Diamondbacks' record is a bit fluky and they'll fall off. I still do think they will start to slide at some point, but until they do it's hard to ignore what they're doing. They're one of the hottest teams in baseball, and are slowly eyeing the Mets for the best record in the NL. And yet their run differential suggests they're about 10 games worse than their record. Like I said, I have a hard time seeing this success continue, but who knows.

9. Seattle Mariners - These are the AL version of the Diamondbacks. Their run differential suggests they shouldn't be this good, but they continue to hang around, 3 or 4 games behind the Angels (the game is not over at the time of this writing). The callup of Adam Jones might be a nice spark.

10. San Diego Padres - Unlike the previous 2 teams, these guys continue to play a little worse than the runs would suggest. I keep thinking these guys will eventually pull away a little bit and take a lead in the West, but it just hasn't happened. If I was a betting man I'd still say they'll win the West. But I'm not really a betting man.

Just missing this week is Milwaukee (they would be #11)(side note: how good is Ryan Braun? Seriously? WOW.), Atlanta/Philadelphia (tough to separate these teams right now), and Minnesota.

What changes would you make?

Fantasy Football Quick Look

Of course the subject of Fantasy Football dominates entire blogs and covering too much in a short span is not easy. But I'm excited to take a bit of time away from updating our fantasy football cheat sheets at FantasyDraftEdge.com to give you some thoughts about fantasy football. Both specific to the 2007 season hot button topics and some general drafting advice that is time tested.

Early in the 2007 training camp season there are a few big stories we are asked about often. First is Larry Johnson. Is he going to sign? And when? To be honest, we simply don't know. We suspect he will sign, but not until late in camp. But this is just one of many reasons we've had LJ sliding down our draft board most of the summer. The Chiefs offensive line is not close to what it was 2-3 years ago, they've lost 2 hall of famers in the past 2 seasons. Yes, Herm Edwards likes to run, but he also doesn't mind kicking FGs - overall the KC offense will be less potent than even last year, certainly nowhere near 2 years ago. There is also the injury concern, 370 carries is A LOT - say all you will about a young back, low number of previous career carries (incl college) - he carried the ball A LOT last season. Perhaps not blocking and not catching anything helped save some wear and tear but LJ is due to breakdown - contributing to that would be a lack of a full training camp. Now we add the possibility of a return from Priest Holmes.....that story is still developing to say the least but it could also take away from Johnson's carries. He's still a solid player, just not a #2 or #3 pick that most national publications have him. That's the safe place, but the accurate place is more like 4th or 5th!

So this leads naturally to....if not LJ who? At FantasyDraftEdge.com we like Frank Gore and Joseph Addai. Of course I realize this is hardly going out on a limb but recommending these 2 before Larry Johnson is not advice you'll get many other places. Addai has a great offensive line to run behind and a superb passing game that defenses worry about first. We saw Edge James numbers fall when he left the cushy spot of Indy RB so we expect to see Addai's numbers rise quickly as we settles in as THE guy in the Colts backfield. Frank Gore's broken hand isn't great news by any means but it came early enough in the pre-season that it shouldn't be a regular season factor. This guy is the real deal and the 49ers are getting better.

I'll mention two other backs...okay 3....first is Shaun Alexander. He was the league MVP just 2 years ago - how quickly people forget. He is getting older and the foot injury may be lingering (and that's scary) but a bounce back season is very possible. No, he won't have MVP season numbers again but with the weak defenses on the Seahawks schedule he may put up nice numbers this season. Laurence Maroney is another name to be close attention to...if you grab him in the late first round of a fantasy football draft you've done VERY well. This guy on this team with no Corey Dillion has Top 5 numbers potential. Marshawn Lynch - if only he had any talent around him....this guy is a stud RB and perhaps only Top 10 this season he is a name to watch.

I can't talk about 2007 stories without mentioning Mike Vick. I'll save my personal commentary on the dirt bag this guy and his "posse" are and stick to fantasy football implications. It's simple. Don't draft Vick. Considering the recent toughening of the NFL concerning player conduct I'd be shocked if Vick saw the field this season. That said, he is (or WAS) one of the games biggest stars so if an exception is out there this could be it. But I'm certainly not ready to gamble on it.

So on to some fantasy football tips and insights that are time tested.
Draft Tip #1 - RB, RB, RB - Okay, maybe just RB, RB but then RB again soon. There simply are not that many top shelf RBs in the NFL. Unlike QBs and WRs the drop off is quick and far with RBs. After the Top 8, certainly the Top 12 the decline in likely production is significant, get past the Top 20 and the drop off is very noticeable...Top 30, forget it - at this point you're hoping for an injury ahead of your scrub. Not drafting a RB first is rarely a good decision. Sure, there are some leagues with crazy scoring that over favors WRs and QBs and that changes, which is why a customizable fantasy football cheat sheet is a good idea for leagues with unusual scoring rules. But in most fantasy football leagues RB is king and getting 1 good one is tough enough, much less two so we almost always draft RB first and second. The rare exception to not drafting an RB second is if you're in a spot with a wrap around draft in which your next (3rd) pick is coming back around and you can get a Top 3 WR or Top 2 QB (Peyton and Carson right now) since with #3 you'll still be able to get a solid RB but those guys may not have lasted even 2-4 more picks.

That brings us to another tip (notice I'm not numbering them anymore, after #1 they'll all in a tie for #2) - look ahead when it's time to draft. Don't just consider your best option right now. Consider what may be there next round. This will help you with this round. If you look down your cheat sheet and see nothing attractive at RB after the one guy you still like but still see 3-4 WRs likely to be there in the next round your decision is easy - and this example is common. Always more WRs and QBs, not always another RB. In fact my teams often have 3 RBs after 4 rounds (WR being the other) - certainly after 5 rounds I'll have 3 RBs and 2 WRs - notice no QB....

So why not a QB yet? Because after Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer and maybe Tom Brady (although his FFB numbers aren't on their level) the drop is big and it's a drop to a big group. Drew Brees is trying to get himself out of, or at least to the top of that "pack" but the difference between the number 4 or 5 QB and the 13th of 14th QB minimal. You'll be much better off building depth at RB and WR than taking a QB that you can have 2 round later.

One last bit of advice as I think I've probably already worn out my welcome as a guest blogger here....draft sober. Seriously. You have 364 other days of the year to get drunk. You're going to live and die each weekend with your fantasy football team - make it as good as possible by drafting with a clear head.

Thanks for the time and good luck to all in fantasy football this season!

On Bill Walsh

Bill Walsh passed away. Much has been said about the coaching tree that flows from him, the West Coast Offense, or even Walsh as a coach or sometimes business consultant, having taught classes at the Stanford Graduate School for Business.

His most lasting influence on me, and very likely the best chance for his future influence lie in his method and approach to football, which were laid out nearly in toto, in his book Finding the Winning Edge. This is why I have pasted the following two articles.

Belichick on "Finding the Winning Edge"

The first is an article about Patriots Coach Bill Belichick's appreciation of the book and of Bill Walsh's approach to the game. The article says it well. But if I could summarize, it would be that at some point, you honestly can't work harder than the other guy. Certainly not in the NFL. So what do you do? You work smarter. Both Walsh and Belichick epitomize this approach, though from vastly different starting points. Both also have three Super Bowl rings.

Bill Walsh - A Method For Game Planning

The second post is intended to give you a flavor of Walsh's approach in the form of a mid-1980s lecture he gave. Much has been said about the West Coast Offense, its origins, the pass plays it involves, the formations, the Pro Sets, the motions, the slant passes, etc.

To my mind, however, the West Coast Offense, or maybe more appropriately the Walsh Offense, has nothing to do with formations, nothing to do with routes or pass plays, and only a notional bit to do with "passing to set up the run." (As a digression, TV announcers often say that any team that throws it a bit "passes to set up the run," but when Walsh said it, he was very specific. He literally meant that he threw certain passes to certain areas to influence particular run defenders, he dropped back so he could run specific looking draws, and he would run play-action passes to set up those corresponding run plays for later in the game.)

Instead, the Walsh Offense is about two interrelated ideas: (1) A meticulous and thorough approach to building a gameplans, and (2) a calm, planned out approach to calling the actual plays in the game so that all your gameplanner is actually useful on gameday. Walsh didn't revolutionize Saturdays or Sundays, he revolutionized Sunday night through Thursdays. He figured out what would work when the pressures weren't on, he had his players practice those plays they had determined would work best, and then he actually ran those plays they practiced in the games they played, as opposed to some seat-of-the-pants calls made by other coaches.

The whole approach can be summarized by two quotes from the article below:

(1) I have been afforded the experience that allowed us to conceive an offense,
a defense, and a system of football that is basically a matter of rehearsing
what we do prior to the game."

and

(2) I know this, your ability to think concisely, your ability to make good
judgments is much easier on Thursday night than during the heat of the game. So
we prefer to make our decisions related to the game almost clinically, before
the game is ever played.

Unsurprisingly, one of the things that separated Walsh from the rest is that he spent a career devoted to perfecting and achieving this goal, rather than using it as a mere hope. This is what I took from Bill Walsh.

Belichick on "Finding the Winning Edge"

An article from Yahoo Sports, written by Charles Robinson.

If Bill Belichick were to loosen his cerebral grip, ever were going to empty out the folds of gray matter hidden under that gray hoody, he'd do it the way Bill Walsh did.

He'd teach. He'd write a book explaining it all. He'd spin the game of football forward by giving it all away. He looks at how Walsh did it, and out of admiration, it has become one of Belichick's hidden desires, too.

Walsh, who passed away Monday after a lengthy battle with leukemia, left an indelible impression on the man who has taken his place as the NFL's reigning genius.

To this day, Belichick insists Bill Walsh: Finding the Winning Edge is the greatest piece of football literature regarding a franchise blueprint ever written. Belichick read the book in the nuclear winter of his own coaching career, between the disaster with the Cleveland Browns and resurrection with the New England Patriots. At a time in his life time when Belichick was forced to re-examine his basic truths about team building, he wrapped his hands around the second of several books by Walsh.

When he was finished, Belichick's philosophical foundation as a coach had once again solidified beneath his feet.

"Saying it was outstanding wouldn't do it justice. For a coach, it's a Bible," Belichick said. "That book reinforced most of what I thought as a coach. I was glad to see Bill write it and say the things he did because a lot of it was either what I was trying to do or what I believed in. Between the book, the clinics, talking to Bill and picking things up from the (San Francisco) 49ers organization, there was certainly a confirmation in my mind that this is the way to do it."

They are words of deep respect, born of a relationship that few have known about over the years. Unbeknownst to most, Walsh has been one of the men who helped Belichick hone his coaching compass over the years. Separated by coasts, specialties and maybe even social personalities, Walsh somehow became a beacon, a sounding board and a geographically distant friend to the man who has authored the league's latest dynasty.

"Even though we never worked together and were really rivals in the 1980s – myself as a defensive coach and Bill as an offensive coach – and even with a lot of distance between us, we've had a very good relationship," Belichick said.

You wouldn't have made the match, with the two seeming so different. Even with the often tribal relationship of coaches, Walsh seemed more of the philosopher poet while Belichick has seemed cut from the cloth of a Cold War scientist. But their mutual knowledge and abilities as thinkers created the bridge. Much in the way that Miles Davis found inspiration in the styling of Charlie Parker and Vincent Van Gogh found motivation in the artistic kinship of Paul Gauguin, Belichick discovered a bond with Walsh through ideologies.

It wasn't always that way, of course. Belichick spent the greater part of the '80s playing Walsh's foil as a linebackers coach and defensive coordinator for the New York Giants. It was Belichick who spent his nights burning through film of Walsh's West Coast offense, tinkering with defensive game plans that often meant the difference between a run at the Super Bowl or heading home for the season.

It was during that time that Belichick's appreciation for Walsh took root. His players were disciplined. His system was painstakingly precise and well-practiced.

And his players fit "(Walsh) did such a good job of getting Roger Craig and Wendell Tyler and the tight ends, Russ Francis and John Frank and Brent Jones, . . . to execute that offense," Belichick said.

Even now, so many years later, he feels the pangs of satisfaction from his lone playoff victory over Walsh – the 49-3 bludgeoning in 1986 which arguably is the best game Belichick ever has called as a defensive coordinator.

Years later, when Walsh had retired and Belichick became coach of the Browns, the respect for Walsh developed into a bona fide friendship. Belichick sought to understand more about the San Francisco 49ers as an organization and the West Coast offense as a system. Phone calls on strategy and personnel became a staple. At one point, Belichick dispatched an assistant coach to spend time with Walsh at a coaching seminar. When the assistant returned, he carried with him 30 pages of Walsh's personal insights.

Eventually, the days in Cleveland went bad, and Belichick was left in the years that followed to dissect what went wrong. He's not particularly fond of the topic even now but allows that when he read Finding the Winning Edge, it armed him with renewed conviction.

Released in 1997 and written with the help of current Baltimore Ravens coach Brian Billick, the 550-page book is classic Walshian theory. While most coaches were penning lyrical accounts of players and teams and Super Bowl victories, Walsh enlisted Billick to help him write a how-to manual on building a franchise. And when it was finished, it was as complete as any outline ever has been.

From how to hire and fire coaches and scouts to refining a quarterback's footwork, the book dissects every nook of an NFL team. Taking all his notes, thoughts, clinics and even vital portions of his playbook, Walsh laid bare all that amounted to San Francisco's greatness in the '80s. And with a touch of his own personal teachings, he laced it with nuggets on leadership from presidents, generals, coaches, philosophers and theologians. In the chapter on designing a winning game plan, Walsh draws from Sun-Tzu's The Art of War:

"Rapidity is the essence of war; take advantage of the enemies' unreadiness, make your way by unexpected routes, and attack unguarded spots."

Boiled into offensive terms: Keep your opponents on their heels and throw the ball to the open spot.

"If I were an owner, first of all, I would read that book," Belichick said. "Then I would make that book required reading for my head coach, general manager or any other key executive in my football operation."

That's with the assumption an owner could find enough copies. The book sold out all of its 36,000 copies. Now, securing one at vintage bookstores or on the Internet costs anywhere from $90 to $180 (more than six times its original price of $29.99). There even is a leather-bound edition, autographed by Walsh and limited to 300 copies, that fetches anywhere from $600 to $1,000. And on the rare occasion that several copies pop up at a bookstore, they typically are scooped up in an instant by coaching staffs.

Over the years, Billick has been approached by businessmen who have used the book as a business model, professors who have used it as a textbook in sports management, and, of course, coaches like Belichick who leaned on it to shape the principals of their own teams.

"Bill envisioned it as something on every coach's desk that he could refer back to," said Billick, the 49ers assistant director of public relations from 1979-80. "And I think he did that. Some people might say that it was a self-ingratiating concept, this whole 'the world according to Bill Walsh' thing. But Bill genuinely just wanted to put into print his observations about this league. And there really is no other book out there like it."

In that vein – the proliferation of ideas – there have been few like Walsh.
"Most of us are kind of private and aren't too helpful to outsiders – I guess that's a nice way of putting it," Belichick said. "But Bill was kind of like Johnny Appleseed. He was throwing those seeds out there in a helpful way to anyone who was interested."

And though Bill Walsh is gone, it's the seeds he bestowed on others that will keep him from ever being forgotten.

Bill Walsh - A Method For Game Planning

This is a transcript of a lecture given by Walsh during the mid-80s. Hat tip: Gunrun.

Planning for a football game today is somewhat different than the original concept of the game in which the quarterback was the field general and saw weaknesses during the game and called his plays accordingly. Obviously the game is much more complex today. I was fortunate to be involved with some of the great football coaches and programs. I have been afforded the experience that allowed us to conceive an offense, a defense, and a system of football that is basically a matter of rehearsing what we do prior to the game.

What we do is call the plays. When I was with Paul Brown and the Cincinnati Bengals, his trademark was sending in messenger guards. He had great success. Paul Brown was the man that changed the game from one that was a rugged, slugging it out type of play, to a more sophisticated method. The advancing of teaching techniques, coaching techniques, the use of teaching aids, the use of film, the black board, etc. All were originated and developed by Paul Brown just after World War II. Part of his concept was a strategy in which virtually everything was spelled out. It was a system in which the plays were called from the sideline. He was criticized for it at the time, but today it is virtually done by everyone. One of the problems you have today is that you don't have trained quarterbacks who can call plays because it has always been the coach who called the plays. At Cincinnati we had a young quarterback, by the name of Greg Cook, who had a short career, but may have been the greatest single talent to play the game. It became my responsibility to call the plays from the press box. Paul would always ask, "What are your openers?" He wanted to know how we were going to start the game. He was thinking about two or three plays that he would start the game with; an off tackle play, a pass, etc. So we began to develop our franchise. When I left in 1975, we had a 11-3 record and the number one offense in professional football. A lot of it was related to disciplining a quarterback. At that time it was Ken Anderson. It was disciplining an offense to know what to expect when we called a play. Consequently we could call a play with the assurance that we could get something done.

My next employment was with the San Diego Chargers and I was fortunate enough to have someone like Dan Fouts to work with. Now the list of opening plays began to number 10 and 12. In other words, we began to plan the opening sequences of the game. From there I went to Stanford and the list went to 20. We would have our first 20 plays to be called. Now with San Francisco we finally stopped with 25. What we have finally done is rehearse the opening part of the game, almost the entire first half, by planning the game before it even starts.

Now why would you do such a thing? I know this, your ability to think concisely, your ability to make good judgments is much easier on Thursday night than during the heat of the game. So we prefer to make our decisions related to the game almost clinically, before the game is ever played. We've scouted our opponent, we have looked at films, we know our opponent well. If you coach at the high school level, often you are in the same league with the same coaches and you know them like a book. With out question you can make more objective decisions during the week as to what you would do in the game than you can spontaneously as the game is being played. To be honest with you, you are in a state of stress, sometimes you are in a state of desperation and you are asked to make very calculated decisions. It is rarely done in warfare and certainly not in football; so your decisions made during the week are the ones that make sense. In the final analysis, after a lot of time and thought and a lot of planning, and some practice, I will isolate myself prior to the game and put together the first 25 plays for the game. They are related to certain things.

What are the reasons for pre-planning your offense before the game?

1. ESTABLISH FORMATIONS. To see the adjustments the opponent will make. You can't wait to find out when you are on their five yard line. Early in the game you are going to show certain formations to see what adjustments are. The coach in the press box knows what formations are coming up, so he knows what to watch for concerning adjustments.

2. BASE OFFENSE. You have to establish in your own mind how you are going to handle a base offense. In other words, you want to have certain plays to start the game in which you take on your opponent physically, man to man, and the coach upstairs as well as the coach on the field, is observing that. You get a better feel which way to run and what kinds of plays work best. Part of your plays are where you attack your opponent physically and find out where your matchups are. You want to find that out early in the game, so that some time later you have an idea of just what you want to do.

3. SET UP CERTAIN THINGS. In our case we will run a given play so that later we can run the play pass that can win the game for us. Occasionally we will play an opponent in which we will run the play pass first, faking the run and throwing; so that later we can run the running play itself. In our case we want to set up the play pass.

4. SPECIALS. One of the interesting things about Paul Brown Football is that he would always be terribly upset if someone would run a reverse before we did, or a run pass before we did. He would grab the phone and scream in my ear, "They did it before we did!" This was very distressing because it sounded so dated. But you know something, over the years, I found that Paul was 100% right. If you run your reverse first, and you can make 5 yards or more, the other guy won't run his. If you have a special play of any kind, get it into the game quickly. How many of you have had a ball game and you have practiced two or three things that you thought for sure would work. The game is over and you didn't try them or you are so far out of it, it doesn't matter whether you try them or not. Paul was right. Set up your special plays early and run them early. Get them done, it affects your opposition.

This approach to the game has a good track record. When I was at Stanford, I was told by our student manager that in seven straight games, we scored on our first drive. This year in virtually every game, we scored early. Against the Raiders, a game we lost, in 17 plays we had two touchdowns. Our problem was later on. The point is that in every game, we will move the ball early. A year ago we moved the ball throughout the game. Last year, we just moved it early. Planning can make the difference. Those first twenty five plays can make the difference.

5. ESTABLISH SEQUENCE. If you have running plays with any sequence to them at all, you will want to start the sequence so you can establish something to work from. If you can do this at home, or in your office, think and visualize yourself how you would like to see the game develop. Write down your plays and the corresponding formations. Believe me, it takes tremendous pressure off of you. If you feel confident going into the game, it makes you that much more confident. If you have the feeling that a lot of us have had before a game, that you are going to lose the thing, you are out gunned, etc., it certainly takes a lot of pressure off the out-gunned coach to know that you have done everything you could before going into the game. If you want to sleep at night before the game, have your first 25 plays established in your own mind the night before that. You can walk into the stadium and you can start the game without that stress factor. You will start the game and you will remind yourself that you are looking at certain things because a pattern has been set up.

6. ISOLATE THE SECOND HALF. In our particular case we have already gone into the second half, not in the detail that we did at the start of the game. In our particular level, every game is a tight one. If you win a game by a big score, you never expected to. If you lose by a big score, you never expected to. There is just never a game that you can count on. You might as well plan part of the second half. You hold certain things back that you think will be effective in the second half. Some are related to your original plan, others are related to your opposition in regard to what adjustments you think they might make. I will tell you this, I think we can do a better job with halftime adjustments on Thursday than we can at halftime the day of the game. It's that simple.

SITUATIONAL FOOTBALL

The question comes up how can you have 25 starting plays when you don't know what the down and distance will be or where you' 11 be on the field, etc. Let's get into the other part of the plan because that's the difference. We have 25 plays we have basically decided upon. We have talked to the line coach, who may handle the running end of it. Basically you look for a formula to win in those 25 plays. Let's talk about things we seldom practice but they win or lose a game.

1. BACKED UP OFFENSE. You won't worry about it until you are backed up, but one of the things we do as part of our plan, the offense will run any where from your own one foot line out as far as your own 8-10 yard line. What are you going to do when you look down at the far end of the field, you have the ball, your players seem like they are a mile away from you and you have to drive out. The defense certainly has a feeling about that. They feel if they have you in the hole, the defensive charges are going to be lower and harder, you know the Opposition is going to be blitzing. You know that who ever is supporting sweep plays is going to be up near the line of scrimmage. You know that the linebackers are ready to plug as quickly as they can because, obviously they have you in a jam. There are certain factors such as that that you look for when you scout the Opposition. In our case, we have probably four runs and two passes for the backed up offense. The passes, you hate to think of throwing, but you may be behind and have to throw. You do certain types of passes from that situation. Things that you can do the best with very little chance of interception.

We know when we are backed up, we can't fumble the ball. Certainly when we are backed up, we can't take a loss. We know that when we are backed up, a penalty against us is far more damaging, and we know when we are backed up we have to have room for out punter to punt the ball with a certain amount of poise. If he doesn't have the room, the ball is snapped very quickly to him, it's a bad punt, the return is good and it means 7 points for the Opposition. So backed up offense means something to us in our game plan, but also it means something when we practice. This all comes from experience, men. It wasn't ordained to me or any one else. It came through 25 years of coaching and some bad experiences with it.

Generally when you practice this kind of work it has to be contact. It does not have to be scrimmaging where there is tackling, but there has to be full speed blocking where everybody gets a feel. You take your offense to the goal line, put the ball on the six inch line, offense huddle up in the end zone, defense huddle up and wait. Now the offensive coaches and the defensive coaches will discuss backed up football. The defensive coach will talk about the advantage they have and how to maintain it and what you must not allow the opponent to do. The offensive coach talks about the things I just mentioned. Now, the team has been spoken to, here are the plays we will be running, probably all year, we are going to fight our way out of here. And so you will practice it. You may be able to get that done twice or three times during the first two weeks of practice. What you are going to do is to back up your team to the six inch line, move the ball out to the two yard line, move the ball out to the four yard line, and in each case, talk about the things you are going to do and how to practice them. The defense, of course, is doing the correlating thing. Each week in practice when you play a given opponent, you have four plays, line up your team on its own one yard line and you run four plays to remind everybody if the backed up offense and what the problems will be.

Most often the problem comes just inside the tight end. The linebackers or ends as you may call them, come underneath the tight ends. Often we will go to two tight ends, as part of that offense. But we practice it. Believe it or not, when your team is on the field and somebody punts the ball out of bounds, of some other disaster occurs and your offensive team runs out there, you can hear them talking about the backed up offense, what they have to do. When that starts to happen, your team is prepared to play football. You are doing the best job you can do, a thorough job.

2. 3RD AND 3 OFFENSE. The next thing we talk about is the 3rd and 3 offense. Naturally this is in your game plan. 3rd and 3 is a tough situation. We will practice it. We will allow certain amounts of time in our training camp for 3rd and 3 football. We set up the down markers, we line up the defense, offense, we have lectured it to our team as part of our situation football. Most often you are going to go to your best back with your best running play and you are not going to fool anybody at that point. You are going to depend heavily on that running back to get the extra yard or two with his ability, figuring that the block for the first two yards of it. 3rd and 3 to us may mean a pass in our style of football. We may throw 3 to 1 over running the ball because of some of the defenses we face. 3rd and 3 means something and you practice it. The first two weeks of practice you will hit on that. You will say, one of the toughest situations we have, men, is when it is 3rd down and approximately 3 yards to go. The opposition is not in their short yardage defense at that point, but they are going to come after you and it is a critical down. Occasionally the defense isn't quite as aware as the offense of how important it is. In our 3rd and 3 offense we will probably have four runs. They may be the same as your backed up offense, and in our case, we will have two or three passes. You will practice those each week. You will say it is 3rd and 3 as part of your situation practice. We are going to have four plays, defense get ready. It will be live, not tackling. We are going to block it and we are going to make it. The runner will have the feeling of what he is after. He will come out of the huddle and see those 3 yards are the difference in this ball game, we win it or we lose it. He will learn how to control the ball, not take any silly chances, stopping, dodging. He has to bust up in there, use his blocking and get his three.

3. 3RD AND SHORT. 3rd and short can mean anywhere from 1-6 inches all the way to 2 yards. In this situation the 6 inch play may be different than the 2 yard play. Often there are plays that are somewhat different than your other plays. Most teams will stay in their same defense but they will have a way to play it. Everybody will pinch down, linebackers scraping, corners at the line of scrimmage, safety at the line, whatever. As we list our short yardage plays, we will list the play and we might list the formation, a 16 Power for example, may be the play that we use from 1 inch to 1 1/2 yards. Often 6 inches to go, we are going to quarterback sneak. Often 2 yards to go is too much for a sneak, who are we kidding, we are going to run an off tackle power with double team blocking. I really don't worry much about the play because everyone runs a slightly different offense. I do know, that you as a coach better anticipate the degree of what we call the short yardage situation. Again, you talk to your team during the two week period before your first game, you are probably only going to get about 10 minutes of it, and you are going to practice it. You are going to line up your team, you're going to have your down markers, you are going to show right now, we've got 2 yards to go and it is 3rd down. Here are the things we do, here's what to expect from the Opposition. We are going to move it right up to the tip of the ball on that yard marker. Meanwhile, the defensive coach is doing the same thing. Talking about it. Each week you are going to get four short yardage plays. To be honest with you, it would be more than that for us.

4. SHORT YARDAGE PASSES. One, naturally, is the one you try to score a touchdown on. The short yardage situation is the only time you are sure what the coverage is. Teams won't play around with it. If you are sure of the pass coverage, the time you might be able to score is on 3rd down and one yard to go and your team knows it. This is where we have them, they know the coverage, we know who is going to be blitzing and how to block it. We will also have a play, most often with the quarterback rolling out, running or passing to make the yard or two as one of our passes. So we have a TD play and we want it every week and we practice it every week. You may not use it for 7 weeks and you will win a game with it the eighth week.

OPPONENT'S 20 YARD LINE (PLUS 20)
By and large, if you have gotten to your opponent's 20 yard line with one or two first downs, the opposing head coach is desperate. The defensive coach is trembling because the head Coach is walking toward him. The head coach says, "Blitz, stop them now. Blitz, they are killing us." The defensive coach doesn't have time to explain that they have only made one first down and it was the silly offense that got them there. Most people get desperate, some people panic. Teams go to a man to man coverage, teams will blitz. So, on the plus 20 yard line, we are going to throw the ball and make a touchdown. Now we have a better idea of what the pass coverages are. We know the man to man coverage is far more likely than a pure zone coverage. We know that teams are more likely to blitz 50 we are looking to throw for a touchdown. I don't recommend that unless you have a skilled quarterback One week it may be the 18 yard line or the 25 yard line, but that part of our football is special. We will have four passes that would be scoring passes. You might go the entire game and not use them because that situation doesn't come up. You move the ball from the 45 down to the 2, you are never there. You have passes and you are looking to break man to man coverage. You may have some special runs because a blitzing defense, if you trap it just right, you can score against it. Again, the first two weeks of football practice, you show your team. You show your team what you think is best in this situation. We will use the same ones all year, but we are going to practice them. You talk about it for ten minutes, you practice it offensively and defensively. During the week of practice before a game, there is situational football. You move the ball to the plus 15 or plus 18, wherever that breaking point is for you and your opponent and you run those passes. Now when your team comes out of the huddle on the 18 yard line, the guys are saying, "Look out for the blitz, here's our chance to score." The receiver is saying, "Throw the ball out front of me, don't make me stop for it." Whatever it is, you have those plays. In our case, most of our touchdown passes will come from this area. If they want to zone you, we have outlet people who we would throw to against the zone. We know that it gets tougher and tougher to score as you go in closer.

PLUS 8 TO THE PLUS 3 OR 4.
This is when your opponent hasn't got into his goal line defense. Often you will go to your backed up football. There are certain base block run plays against the three man line that you are going to run right at that point. You are looking to see if they have substituted their goal line defense. If they haven't substituted their goal line defense, you are looking for your 8 yard line or your close offense. You have certain plays that you would run. Again, going back to your two weeks practice before your opening game, you talk about it. "Men, there is a point from that 10 yard line in that they are going to stay in their basic defense. They are going to blitz us and we are going to have certain plays that we are going to run." We know that people can get underneath the blocker and make the stops. We know that we don't want to lose yardage.

GOAL LINE OFFENSE.
In this phase they have substituted their goal line defense. I suppose there are teams that don't substitute, but by and large, let's assume they do. They use 6 linemen and the gap charge. Often you have to make a change in the blocking patterns that you'll use to face up to that goal line defense. Like our short yardage offense, when we talk about our goal line offense, we are talking about what we need. Certainly there is certain situation where we need inches. So we would start our list with those plays where we need inches to score. We would move our list down to let's say the six plays we might run if we are sitting with 3rd down and 3 on the 3 yard line and they are still in their goal line defense. You will see varied charges. When we get to the six inch line or the 1 foot line, we are going to see everyone in the gap, coming straight ahead. When we are on the 3 yard line with 3 yards to go, often there is an out charge. There is a substitute man coming in for one of the linebackers. There is a free safety back in the game, those kind of things happen. We have to account for those situations. You can't account for these situations if you haven't planned to do it because you will look down at that far end of the field and you will just see a bunch of bodies and rear ends facing you. You can't tell where you are. You have to have a method you have worked with and your coach in the press box has to tell you just where you are. We talk to our quarterback about signaling distance. He will put up his hands and you think it is something that it is not. He will signal and it looks like we need 3 yards and later you will see the film and we only needed 1 yard. You have ways to talk to him about what that means to you and then you have that part of your football developed. The first two weeks of practice you have to have some goal line football. Every week you have a certain number of plays. You place the ball on the 3 yard line, the 2 yard line, the 1 yard line, the 6 inch line, and the 1 inch line. Bring it out to the 3 and it is 3rd and 3 on the 3. Here's what we are going to run. Practice it that way and often these plays run together. Your players have so much more confidence, coming out of the huddle knowing what they have been in those situations before. Obviously, line splits make a difference. Hopefully there is an extra blocker on the weakside, the tight end or some big wide rear ended guy, to help protect his gap. But whatever you have, if you have planned it and fail, you can't blame yourself for losing your poise. You can't blame yourself for panicking if you have planned these things and they fail. You may really search yourself for the kinds of decisions you made on Thursday night, but you certainly can't make the decision during the game. As a coach, one of the things you are always fighting during the game is the stress factor, breaking your will. The stress factor will affect your thinking. I have been in situations where I could not even begin to think what to do. From that point on, I knew that I had better rehearse everything.

END OF THE GAME (LAST 3 PLAYS).
To save your own sanity, you'd better practice the last three plays of the game. I don't worry so much what they are. Don't get yourself in a position to try to think of something to do with just a few seconds left because you will always wonder why you didn't do something else. Through experience we said that we were going to have 3 plays. Often they are the kind of plays with a very low percentage. I have seen the Atlanta Falcons win their division in three consecutive games, I think it was, throwing the ball way down the field on their so-called planned play with a tipped pass. I won't talk about those plays in detail, but certainly one would be catching the ball and lateralling it. Our team has practiced those last three plays and when it gets down to that point, they go in the game knowing just what they are going to do. I say, "Good luck" and amazingly enough, a couple of those have worked. We walked off the field with our heads up. "My God, we almost pulled it out." Rather than throwing the ball up in the air and having it intercepted and humiliating you.

3RD AND 8 YARDS TO GO (OR MORE).
You have plays that you are going to call for that kind of situation. A lot of high school teams will run the ball on 3rd and 8. If they can run it, they should run it because it is certainly the best way to attack somebody. 3rd down and 8 should mean something to you. Number one, the best single pass in Football is the hook. It's not an out. Percentages throwing an accurate out drop considerably compared to a hooking pass. Obviously, a receiver can adjust to a hook. The receiver can see the ball leave the quarterback's hands and the receiver can adjust to coverages. You will need some type of a hook pass that gets you 8 yards on 3rd and 8. You hear the sportscaster comment that the receiver did not run the distance he needed to make a first down. You have to school your team on the fact that half of the yardage you make forward passing is after the catch. If we have 3rd down and 15 yards to go, it does not mean we are going to run a 15 yard pass pattern. We will generally throw the ball 10 and get up into the 20's. We remind our team, it is 2nd and 20, 3rd and 25, we are going to run a basic pattern, get all we can out of the completion and run for the rest of it. We are constantly reminding our receivers what their stats are running after the catch. Dwight Clark might be 4.2; Fred Soloman might be 9.3. This is one way you measure a receivers performance and his contribution to the ball club. 3rd down and 8 does not mean you have to throw an 8 yard pass.

LONG YARDAGE - LAST THREE PLAYS.
What are you going to do when you have 15 yards to go on a given down? You count on your best receiver catching the ball and then have running room to make the yardage. In each of these situations, you will practice them.

TIME FACTOR.
The next thing you talk about is the time factor in a game. There is a dramatic difference for example, between the end of the first half and the end of the second half. Obviously at the end of the game if you are behind, you are not going to be very cautious. You have to do certain things. Some of the gross errors are made at the end of the first half.

So often teams leave the field after attempting to drive and score with time outs remaining. I suggest, if you have a so called two minute offense, you first decide whether you are going to score or run the clock out. You can run the clock out in a way that your principal and students won't notice. You have to call certain sweep type plays, but you are looking at the clock and you want to get the heck out of there. We know, we may try to go for it with a two minute offense, but the minute I see the odds start to turn the other way, I signal to our quarterback and now we watch the clock run. We want to get out of there. Let's say that we feel we can get into position to score and we have been a reasonably effective team in doing that. We are a team that uses our time outs. We want to use our time outs even if it is at the wrong time as far as the clock is concerned. What we really need to do is discuss strategy with the quarterback. We will give the quarterback two or maybe three plays to call. We will talk about what the defense is doing, what defense they are in, remind him what our game plan was. We are not going to be able to send plays in at that point. So we will set our strategy at the expense of the clock. We know that with a minute and 20 seconds left in the half, call your time outs if the clock is running because if that clock is running with a minute and 20 seconds, if you have any kind of play, by the time you run the next play you have probably run 20-25 seconds off the clock. You do that twice and it is now third down and you are really in trouble, because the other team is going to get the ball back. I say use your time outs and don't wait too long.

Almost the first day of practice you install your basic running game. It might be a 16 Power or a 17 Power, whatever it is, you simply talk to your team in a meeting and tell them that we are going to call two plays. The quarterback is going to call the formation, the plays are going to be on a certain snap count, for us it is on set which is the second sound, and the quarterback is going to say "two plays" 16 Power twice. You come up to the line of scrimmage and you run 16 power on set. You don't jump around, you take your time and run it again. If you will do that in your early camp once or twice a day, just a couple of plays, you have established a system in which you can call your plays. Most two minute offensive plays are not elaborate plays. You can repeat the same one three or four times. It could be a very simple hooking type pass or an out. The point is, all you need is the facility to do it. You simply say, two plays and name them. The next thing you might do is call your formation Red Right, check with me, you come to the line of scrimmage and say 16. Now you can run two plays. Remember if you huddle up it could cost you at least 25 seconds. The two minute offense is related to one, being able to call two plays in the huddle; two, to use your time outs; three, know when you are not going to make it. Those are the key things.

FOUR MINUTE OFFENSE.
Four minute offense does not mean you are trying to score. In the two minute offense you want to score points. Four minute offense, you want to use the clock and control the ball. This was brought home in 1972 when I was with the Cincinnati Bengals. With four minutes left in the game, we had an 11 point lead and had the ball. We lost the game. We know this, we can use 35 seconds on the clock by simply not going out of bounds, not throwing an incompletion and not being penalized. But 35 seconds is 4 forward passes that your opponent can get if you don't use it up. In a four minute offense, every play can use 35 seconds. All we really have to do is make a first down and we are going to win that thing. You must practice the four minute offense. It has to be live, you don't tackle people necessarily because you can blow the whistle when you think the man would have been stopped. You have to talk to your team about it. You are going to win the game and here is how you are going to do it. You are going to have the lead with four minutes to go and you are going to have a first down. You will win if you can maintain control. You know you have 35 seconds if you don't go out of bounds. You know the clock will stop on a penalty. You know that a fumble is disastrous, that if you can just squeak out a first down by good play calling and aggressive blocking, you will win.

Always feel that when you go into a game, the other team has a one point edge on you. As a coach even if they have a 40 point edge on you, don't think about that. You figure every time you play, you are a one point underdog. They are one point better than you are. You will be a little more alert about it. If you think the opponent is one point better, you have to control the ball. We have plays that we are going to run. We are looking at the clock and unfortunately, we may have to throw a pass to get that first down, which we have had to do and have been successful. But we have practiced it and our quarterback knows the fears he can have with a mistake. Your four minute offense can win you the game. If you will talk about it, you will be surprised. If you practice it each week, four of five plays. You can say, here we are, on our 30 yard line, four minutes to go, let's see what we can do. Let's see if we can get a first down and how we will use the clock. Throughout much of this situational football, there is pressure on the offense.

SNAP COUNT.
One of the big mistakes you can make is to play around with the snap count. Any time we are backed up, we are going to snap the ball on set. Any time we are sitting there in short yardage, we are not going to play around with the snap count. We have seen teams try to draw teams offside and one of their own linemen moves and then it is 3rd down and 6 to go. We are going to snap the ball on the regular count that makes sense. Paul Brown has a certain snap count for every play and Paul was right because with certain plays it makes a dramatic difference in the way you use your cadence. The first thing you remind yourself, don't outsmart yourself. Give the offense every chance to come off the ball together. Further down the list you might say, let's disrupt the defense by getting them off balance. Your snap count is very important to you.

If you are talking about offensive football, the running game is the most vital part of the game, but when you talk about your running game, what you are saying is you have to be able to run when you are backed up. You have to be able to run on 3rd and 3, you have to be able to run on short yardage. You have to be able to run through tough situations. In the professional level, the forward pass dominates the rest of the game. But if you can't run in tough situations, your chances of success are minimal.

So what do we do? We take a sheet and list our first 25 plays. We keep a sheet and on one side of it are listed 25 plays that we are going to run. We have one square accounting for the second half of the football game and we have a block where we write in our adjustments at half time. I will show you two charts at the end of this talk.

You start the game with the first 25 plays, but now it is 3rd and 3. You turn the sheet over and go to the 3rd and 3 list. You have listed the plays in the order that you would call them on 3rd and 3. You take it; turn the sheet over and go to your next play. Trouble; long yardage, you turn the sheet over and go to the long yardage category. Punt; get the ball back. You have your first 25 plays listed, but of course, somewhere in here you are going to be backed up. You have the ball on your 1 yard line; so don't fight it. Turn over the sheet and look at your BACKED UP

OFFENSIVE PLAYS.
You make a first down, turn the sheet over and now we are on play number 5. It works; go to number 6. It works; go to number 7; we are in pretty good shape. Oh, you got to the 20 yard line. You have another choice now. You can stay with your original list which might have been a basic run; or you can decide to try to get into the end zone with a pass. Say you don't quite make it and you are on the 8 yard line. You are on the 6 inch line. You look at these categories. You score a touchdown. By the time you get back to the sheet, you are behind 21-7, but don 't worry about it. You have a lot of plays on your list to call. So continue to go through your list.

This is a way to pre-plan the game. We feel pretty solid about this. Write on the plan the opponent and the date so that you don't end up using last years plan. This is a format that establishes how you practice.

The next thing is when do you practice these things. Obviously we have more time to practice than you do. But I will fake a plan for the high school coaches. If I remember right, you play on Friday night. On Saturdays you are cutting the grass, if I remember right. That is not a bad life.
On Sunday you should go to church with your wife.

MON. - Review, etc. Install plays.
TUE. - We will not cover the situations that much.
WED. - 6 plays (4 minutes) 6 plays (3rd & 3) 6 plays (short yardage) 6 plays (goal line) THU. - Last 3 plays 6 plays (long yardage) 6 plays (3rd & 8)
FRI. - GAME

When we plan our practice we don't talk about how much time we are going to practice. We figure that one play is one minute. So we go by the number of plays. In a given practice we will have 5 plays of short yardage, and 6 of long yardage. We will say "get 12 plays in 10 minutes" of drills. Each day you will have one segment of your game plan that you will practice. There is obviously time when you are going to cover your base offense and your base defense. But, you plan on certain days for these things to be done. You can live with this much easier than second guessing yourself.

On the other side of the sheet is where the difference is. This is where we categorize all of the things we have talked about. Thank you very much.