Best First Year College Basketball Coaching Hires

Now that we're in the thick of the conference schedule, I thought it would be interesting to see who [so far] have been the best college basketball coaching hires from the offseason. I picked the top 5 based on what they've done so far... this is no indication on how I think they'll do in the future. Anyway, in no order...

Kelvin Sampson (Indiana) - I was planning on having Sampson on this list anyway, but then the Hoosiers really drove the point home with their win over #2 Wisconsin. The Hoosiers aren't supremely talented right now, but Sampson has them playing excellent defense. Plus, the fact that he's gotten Eric Gordon to come to Indiana next year is a big point in his favor. Things are looking up for Indiana.

One other thing about the game... what's up with Indiana fans storming the court? I know Wisconsin's an excellent team, but Indiana was ranked and playing at home? To paraphrase Doug Gottlieb, if Bobby Knight were dead he'd be rolling in his grave right now.

Bob Huggins (Kansas St.) - The Wildcats are 5-2 in the conference, 16-6 overall, and are in contention for a Tourney bid. Of course, they don't really have any quality wins yet, and their most athletic player is hurt for the season, but that's ok for now. We'll get a good chance to see what they're made in the next two games... they play at Texas, and then at Kansas.

Jeff Capel (Oklahoma) - Capel gets a slight, slight nod over Mike Anderson of Missouri for the 5th spot. I mean, these guys are competitive and Longar Longar is their leading scorer. The same Longar Longar that scored 127 points in his first 2 seasons at OU. Plus, bonus points for his building of the VCU program (more on them later). He is in a similar situation as his predecessor Kelvin Sampson is in right now... they don't have a lot of offensive talent, but they play hard defensively. Unfortunately, their offensive talent is far too low now to make a realistic run at the Tourney, but I do like Capel as a coach.

Anthony Grant (VCU) - They finally suffered a conference loss, but at 11-1 they still lead the CAA, the same conference that produced George Mason a year ago. The pieces may have been put in place by Capel, but someone's got to coach these guys. They've got a guard-oriented attack that could pose some problems for some teams. Three guards score at least 13.9 PPG.

Tony Bennett (Washington St.) - Bennett was the natural choice to replace his father after Dick Bennett left, but they should still be commended for making the choice. Bennett has brought some offense and some excitement to Pullman in his first year. Their only 3 conferences loss have come against Oregon (in OT), @ UCLA, and @ Stanford. Not bad.

Who do you think has been the best new hire?

Norm Chow - Reads and Concepts

This is from Norm Chow in 2002 (@ NC State when he had Phillip Rivers at QB): You can see that on SOME of these - he mixes 2 or even 3 concepts within 1 pass.

To better understand this post check out the BYU plays/numbers here, and compare these routes. He used these same routes at USC and NC State and still does in the NFL.

1. "QUICK GAME CONCEPT" = entire 3 step drop series ("50 SERIES") except for "4 Verticals".

2. "QUICK VERTICALS CONCEPT" = 3 step game with 4 verticals.

NOTE: "60 SERIES" = 5 step drop (SOME but very little 7).

3. "HORIZONTAL STRETCH CONCEPT"
----A) 61 Y Choice
----B) 66
----C) 64

4. "HORIZONTAL STRETCH - RUB CONCEPT"
----A) 62 = MESH ROUTES

5. "DEEP HORIZONTAL STRETCH CONCEPT"
----A) 67

6. "DEEP HORIZONTAL STRETCH - HI/LO CONCEPT"
----A) 68 = SMASH )

7. "VERTICAL STRETCH - HI/LO CONCEPT"
----A) 63

8. "FLOOD - OBLIQUE - HI/LO CONCEPT"
----A) 65

9. "HI/LO - OBLIQUE STRETCH CONCEPT"
----A) 69

These passes (the "50 Series", and "61 thru 69") were the same he used at BYU

He was also experimenting with things he called:

A) "HORIZONTAL - TRIANGLE STRETCH CONCEPT"
B) "HI/LO - RUB CONCEPT"
C) "SNEAK - RUB - HI/LO CONCEPT"

THESE (ABOVE) were used on some "TAGS" that aren't in the base passes listed above (WHICH CAN BE FOUND IN JUST ABOUT ANY OF HIS BYU BOOKS).

The QB READS on the "60 Series" (his "bread & butter") were:

NORM CHOW POST SNAP READS – “60 SERIES”

“61 Y OPTION” – 5 step drop. Eye T.E. and throw it to him unless taken away from the outside by S/S (then hit Z), OR inside by ILB (then hit FB). Don’t throw option route vs. man until receiver makes eye contact with you. Vs. zone – can put it in seam. Vs. zone – no hitch step. Vs. man – MAY need hitch step.

“62” - MESH – 5 step drop. Take a peek at F/S – if he’s up hit Z on post. Otherwise watch X-Y mesh occur – somebody will pop open – let him have ball. Vs. zone – throw to Fullback.

“63” - DOUBLE-IN (split end post, Y-10 yard in, Z-15-18yd dig) – 5 step drop and hitch (7 steps permissible). Read F/S: X = #1; Z = #2; Y OR HB = #3.

“64” – SPEED OUTS - 5 step drop. Key best located Safety on 1st step. Vs. 3 deep look at F/S – if he goes weak – go strong (Z = #1 to FB = #2 off S/S); if he goes straight back or strong – go weak (X = #1 to HB = #2 off Will LB). Vs. 5 under man – Y is your only choice. Vs. 5 under zone – X & Z will fade.

“65” – Y-SAIL/STRONG FLOOD - 5 step drop and hitch. Read the S/S. Peek at Z #1; Y = #2; FB = #3. As you eyeball #2 & see color (F/S flash to Y) go to post to X. Vs. 2 deep zone go to Z = #1 to Y = #2 off S/S.

“66” – ALL-CURL- 5 step drop and hitch. On your first step read Mike LB (MLB or first LB inside Will in 3-4). If Mike goes straight back or strong – go weak (X = #1; HB = #2). If Mike goes weak – go strong (Y = #1; Z = #2; FB = #3). This is an inside-out progression. NOT GOOD vs. 2 deep 5 under.

“67” – 3-VERTICAL/DOUBLE CORNERS- 5 step drop and hitch. Read receiver (WR) rather than defender (Corner). Vs. 2 deep go from Y = #1 to Z = #2. Vs. 3 deep read same as “64” pass (Will LB) for X = #1 or HB = #2. Equally good vs Cover 2 regardless if man OR zone under.

“68 SMASH” – SMASH - 5 step drop and hitch. Vs. 2 deep look HB = #1; FB = #2 (shoot); Z = #3. Vs. 3 deep – stretch long to short to either side. Vs. man – go to WR’s on “returns”.

“69 HB OPTION” – Y-SAIL - 5 step drop - hitch up only if you need to. Eye HB: HB = #1; Y = #2. QB & receiver MUST make eye contact vs. man. Vs. zone – receiver finds seam (takes it a little wider vs. 5 under). Only time you go to Y is if Will LB and Mike LB squeeze HB. If Will comes & F/S moves over on HB – HB is “HOT” and will turn flat quick and run away from F/S. Otherwise HB runs at his man to reinforce his position before making his break.

NOTE: BLITZ AUDIBLES IN “60 SERIES” when we want “Y” to enter in protection on widest rusher (S/S or OLB) his side: “MAX PRO”.

1. “67 Stay”
2. “63 Stay” – gives X on post if F/S lines up strong on Y.
3. “62 Stay” – gives Z on post if F/S aligns weak on HB.

The O.J. Mayo Incident

Not sure if this is big news yet or not, but apparently there was a little incident involving one of the top prospects in all of high school basketball, OJ Mayo, and a referee in one of Mayo's games.

Mayo had a pretty nice dunk, then got a technical foul for taunting afterwards. After a little discussion with the referees, Mayo was given a second technical for running his mouth a bit and was ejected from the game.

As you can guess, things didn't end there. Mayo then followed the ref over to the scorer's table, and the two bumped lightly. Or at least that's what it looked like. However the referee took quite a tumble, much to the disbelief of Mayo.

You have to watch the video for yourself, but there are 2 possibilities here:

(1) The refs feet got tangled with Mayo, which could not be seen on camera
OR
(2) The ref is the worst actor in the world.

You decide:

Pittsburgh defeats Villanova

In a fairly entertaining game, #7 Pittsburgh defeated Villanova 65-59, improving to 20-3 on the year. Some random thoughts I had on the game:

- Pittsburgh has an excellent record and a good team, but I just don't see them as a Final Four team. They are the class of the Big East, but I don't think they'll match up well against the elite of the NCAA. They are fundamentally sound, well coached, and talented, but I just don't see the Final Four in their future.

- I don't want to be all negative on Pittsburgh, because they did win, and they're very good. Two guys I really like (aside from the obvious Aaron Gray) are Levance Fields and Levon Kendall.

Fields is just a very solid PG. He's tough, he's a good shooter, and he will get up in your face defensively. He scored 20 points today, but I really like his decision-making. Only 2 assists, but one turnover. Plus, he passes the very subjective, "I think this is a guy that will take over at the end of games" test. Subjective, but important. To me at least.

Kendall is the glue guy. The numbers weren't impressive... 6 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists. But he just does a little bit of everything. He's solid at both ends and just fits in nicely with Pitt's other threats.

- For Villanova, Curtis Sumpter is still definitely not right. The numbers weren't bad... 21 points, 9 rebounds... but his shot just looks flat right now. He was 4/15 from the field, 1/5 from downtown, and frankly missed some shots badly. They need him to get healthy from the shin bruise and hamstring tightness.

- If Sumpter is healthy, I like Villanova to make the Tourney and possibly have the chance to win a game or two. They have depth inside with Sumpter, Will Sheridan, Shane Clark, and Dante Cunningham. They have a great shooter in Mike Nardi. They have a great finisher in Scottie Reynolds. And they have a great coach in Jay Wright. They are only 14-7 (and 3-5 in the conference), but I think they will make the Tourney.

What are your thoughts on the teams?

What? No Football?

That's right, for the first Sunday in about 5 months, there was no football. Which usually just means that we're getting towards the heart of the basketball season, which is ok by me. So after a full weekend of college basketball, here's my top storylines:

- Punch Stanford's ticket to the Big Dance. It was a pretty good weekend for the Cardinal. On Thursday Stanford handled USC by 15. On Sunday, they overcame a 17 point first half deficit to beat the #3 ranked UCLA, 75-68. It helped that all of UCLA's big men were in foul trouble, which made them almost useless as far as scoring. Arron Afflalo and Darren Collison combined for 39 points, but it wasn't enough to beat Stanford and their hot shooting in the 2nd half. With a signature win like this to up their record to 14-5 (6-3 in conference), Stanford has to be looking good as far as the NCAA Tournament goes, at least at this point.

- LSU, welcome to the bubble. After their 3rd straight loss, LSU is now 13-7 overall, 2-4 in the SEC. Their non-conference victory against Texas A&M is excellent, but their other big win (against Alabama) is looking less impressive by the day. I guess they've missed Darrel Mitchell a little more than everyone thought they would.

- Maybe next year Connecticut. Another Big East loss for them drops them to 13-7 and 2-5 in the conference. But the record isn't as telling as the fact that their best win this year is against St. John's. Their 2nd best win is against either Ole Miss or South Florida, depending on your opinion of the two teams. If the regular season ended right now Connecticut wouldn't make the Big East Tournament.

- Arizona actually might not be that good. North Carolina just annihilated Arizona on Saturday. I know Marcus Williams got hurt and didn't play in the second half. But in the defense of UNC, neither Brandan Wright or Marcus Ginyard did not play at all. The Tar Heels abused Arizona on both ends of the court... offensively they shot over 50% and scored 92 points. Defensively, they forced 20 Arizona turnovers and the Wildcats were 1/23 from downtown. Arizona has not lost 4 of 5 and 5 of 7. If things don't get turned around, they could find themselves on the bubble, surprising as that may have sounded at the start of the year.

- Aaron Brooks, Player of the Year candidiate. After a huge game against an underrated WaSu club, Brooks is averaging 19 points, 4 assists, and 4 rebounds per game for the upstart Ducks, who are now tied atop the Pac-10 standings. Certainly the top 2 candidates are Alando Tucker and Kevin Durant, but that sound you hear might be Aaron Brooks creeping into the race.

What were your thoughts from the weekend?

The Dick Bavetta vs. Charles Barkley Saga

For quotes and video, go to the Charles Barkley vs. Dick Bavetta Wrapup.

Awful Announcing has been all over this from the beginning, but I thought it'd be good to get some of the videos from this in one place. If you haven't heard anything about this... well, just watch the videos and that will explain it.

Charles Barkley challenges Dick Bavetta:



Dick Bavetta accepts Charles Barkley's challenge:



And finally, Kevin Garnett weighs in on the matter:



All I can say is I really, really hope this does take place over the All-Star Break, because it would be awesome. Maybe the best comment on all of this did not come from Charles Barkley but from Ernie Johnson, who asked Barkley:

"Answer me one question... which hamstring are you going to grab at when you fall behind and have to pull up?"

A Bill Walton Podcast

Bill Walton Podcast

Seriously, this is the craziest thing I have ever listened to. If Bill Walton is not on acid, then I have no idea how he comes up with this stuff. He jumps around from topic to topic saying ridiculous things, and really, that's what we like about him. This podcast deals with a Brazilian named Daniela's internet sex video, the NY Knicks, the Grateful Dead, crossword puzzle contests, Larry Bird, and pretty much everything in between.

So have a listen and tell me what you think... in case you don't want to listen to it all, here's some of the prime quotes:

"Whenever I get to watch the Wizards and can finally get Daniela off the screen, I can't get over how well Brendan Haywood is playing. I actually saw Brendan Haywood try to run up-and-down the court faster than his opponent the other night. Now THERE'S a novel concept."

"But the real surprise to me in New York is that despite endless research and digging on my part, I have yet to come up with any evidence whatsoever that Isiah Thomas had anything to do with the Home Depot's Bob Nardelli's severance package of $210 million. Now that sure seemed to be to have all the trappings of an Isiah Thomas deal. Unbelievable money for nothing."

"During the recent holidays we had a nice little break, and being the competitive fiend that I am, I entered an International Crossword Puzzle Contest. I was on fire, as hot as I've ever been in anything! So here I was, rolling on forever to yet another title, when I get stomped on, 'What is a 10-letter word for surge?' I was so ashamed when I couldn't come up with escalation."

And don't forget to check out/add to the Bill Walton Quote Library, for which I am gather quotes to post at the end of the season. Also check out my synopsis of a Bill Walton Chat, as well as one of the best Bill Walton quotes ever.

[Special thanks to Doug LeMoine for initially linking to the podcast which is how I found it]

NCAA Basketball Surprises and Disappointments

With the conference season in full-swing, I'll give my teams that have been pleasant surprises so far this year and then the teams that have been disappointments.

Surprises
Virginia Tech (15-5, 5-1) - It wasn't that hard to see that they would have the talent to be a good club this year, but more than a few heads were turned by the quick start the Hokies have gotten off to in the ACC. With early wins over North Carolina and at Duke, they are 5-1 in the conference and tied for the lead. They also have another solid win against Maryland, making their NCAA Tournament chances look pretty good at this point in the season.

Oklahoma St. (17-3, 3-2) - Like Va. Tech, it wasn't hard to imagine that they would be improved this season, but I'm not sure anyone thought they would be this good already. They have lost probably their two biggest tests (Kansas, Texas A&M) but have done everything else right. In the non-conference they beat ranked teams like Pittsburgh and Syracuse, and won at a very good Missouri St. team. With the offensive duo of Mario Boggan and JamesOn Curry, and the defensive capabilities of Marcus Dove they are a solid and talented ballclub.

Butler (18-2, 6-1) - The surprise with Butler is that they have one of the best nonconference resumes in the NCAA. They have beaten Tennessee, Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Indiana, and Purdue, 5 good ballclubs who all have a shot at making the NCAA Tourney. They shoot the 3 ball very well and just simply do not turn the ball over very often, and that's a pretty good recipe.

Oregon (18-2, 6-2) - Not to sound like a broken record, but this is another talented team that may have underachieved in the past, so it's not a surprise that they're playing well, just that they're playing this well. They have 5 players scoring in double figures and they look like they will have serious firepower come March.

Vanderbilt (14-6, 4-2) - Their 4 SEC wins: Tennessee, Alabama, @ Kentucky, @ LSU. They are a senior-dominated team that has good balance... although an early-season loss to Furman could be a killer come Tourney Time, you have to like how the Commodores have been playing. This might be their best team since the days of Matt Freije!! (and yes, this might be the only Matt Freije reference ever in Complete Sports, so enjoy it)

Washington St. (17-3, 6-2) - This is not your parents (or at least your older brothers) WaSu squad. They've beaten Gonzaga, Arizona, USC, and lost a very tight game at UCLA. They are very balanced (11 guys play at least 8.9 minutes per game), and they are an excellent defensive team. Do not write these guys off simply because they have not been a good team in past years.

Disappointments
Connecticut (13-6, 2-4) - They're very young and talented, but that combo hasn't exactly produced impressive results thus far. We knew it would be a down year for the Huskies, but it's late January and their 2 best wins are at St. John's and at home against Ole Miss. Meanwhile, they have little offensive flow, and while the talent is evident, it's not turning into results. Their next 3 games are Providence, @ DePaul, and Rutgers. They MUST win at least 2 of 3 if they want to have a shot this year.

San Diego St (13-7, 2-4) - Maybe they're not as big of a disappointment nationally, but I certainly thought they'd be a lot better than this. They have some really, really talented guys in Brandon Heath, Mohamed Abukar, Lorrenzo Wade, and the rest, but it hasn't turned into great results at this point. This was a team I really thought would be able to challenge to get to the Sweet 16, and while there's still a lot of the season to be played, it's been a little disappointing so far.

Washington (12-7, 2-6) - Excellent win against Oregon, but certainly there's still work to do. Honestly, I was a little shocked when I checked their record... I know they lost a lot from last year, but they have Tourney type talent... Justin Dentmon, Spencer Hawes, Jon Brockman and the rest are all good enough to get this team to the Tourney. With solid non-conference wins against LSU and Northern Iowa and the strength of the Pac-10, a .500 conference record might be enough to get them in, but there is work to be done. The next two games are against the Pac-10 bottom feeders in Oregon St and Arizona St., making it imperative that Washington wins those games.

Alabama (15-4, 2-3) - Their overall record is nice, and even their conference record is nothing awful, but its just the way that they've lost the 3 conference games. They've gotten annihiliated in the 3 conference losses by an average of 24 points per game. More concerning is the fact that Ronald Steele doesn't appear to be 100% right now... they need him if they're going to make a Tourney run.

Who are your biggest surprises and disappointments so far?

Other material that is better than average

Because really folks, better than average is all we shoot for here. Anyway, I kind of have a headache here, so instead of, um, writing a lot of stuff out, I'll just link around. Which is probably pretty evident.

First a few different guys I know started a couple different blogs... In Beane We Trust and The Sports Flow. I'm not in the business of guaranteeing that you won't be disappointed, but I don't think you will.

For the best Joe Mauer impersonating Mean Joe Greene commercial ever, click on this link. It's pretty much awesome.

If this happens, it will replace the Joe Mauer commercial as the greatest thing ever. Seriously, I would pay to see The Chuckster race Dick Bavetta.

At some point during last year's Big East Tournament when Gerry McNamara was making seemingly every shot he took, I declared him my Personal Jesus (since been redacted since that was not likely to ever happen again in his career)... my, how the mighty have fallen [all the way down to the D-League].

Bruce Pearl: coolest coach in America?

For greater ease of use, you can always subscribe to my feed if you want. It's up to you.

That's all I got. I'll try to do better the next time.

NBA Rundown

With the NFL playoffs, college football bowls, and everything else, I haven't written about the NBA very much this year. Which is a shame. So to rectify that, let's take a brief look at how each division race is going so far this year:

Atlantic Division
For a short while when the Nets were 20-20 the division leader was at least .500, which was nice for a change. They lost now to drop to 20-21, but they hold the slim division lead. I thought the Celtics would be able to challenge for the division crown, but the injury of Paul Pierce ended that. They've gone 2-14 with him out the lineup, and believe it or not, that's not good enough to win the Atlantic. Elsewhere, Philly is awful and the Knicks are the Knicks, so it's looks like this race is between the Nets and Raptors... don't sound so excited.

Central Division
Hey, a division in the East with more than 2 teams over .500! Washington is obviously playing well, but I think there's an extremely good chance that the 3 best teams in the East reside in the Central division. The Pistons are up top and they are the best offensive team in the division, the Cavs are in 2nd, and they have this guy named LeBron James on their team, which helps (though the key is the supporting cast). The Bulls are in 3rd, but they have the best defense in the division. Put it all together, any of them can win the division and I would bet that the Eastern Conference winner will be among these three teams. Unless DWade pulls off a miracle like last year, I don't see what other team will beat them in the playoffs.

Southeast Division
The Wizards are playing well, but they have the same problems they've had in the past. They're not getting any inside scoring and they can't play any defense whatsoever. That's generally a bad combination in the playoffs. The other competitors are Miami and Orlando... Orlando started strong but has cooled off, and Miami is being carried by Dwyane Wade. Seriously, without Shaq and Wade this would be the WORST team in the NBA... so it's vital that Shaq can come back and give them something. Anything.

Northwest Division
Utah has the 5 game division lead over Denver right now, but with AI and Carmelo playing together, I think the Nuggets could have a few tricks up their sleeve, especially if Camby can stay healthy for once. After 2 games together things seem to be going just fine with those two, though the defense could stand to be a little better.The TWolves are in 3rd place and .500 right now, but they just fired their coach. I thought that was a pretty awful move, but I'll just quote John Hollinger, because he explained my thoughts pretty clearly today:

Can anyone remember the last time a coach took a team that was expected to be lottery-bound, had them at .500 and in line for a playoff spot at the halfway point of the season in a very tough conference, and got fired anyway?

...From the lofty contract extensions they've handed out to even their most mediocre players, to the way they've axed both Flip Saunders (in February 2005) and now Casey rather than admitting the serial imperfections of the roster, to their current refusal to trade Garnett before his value declines, Minnesota's front office has existed in an alternate state of reality for some time now.

Pacific Division
This is the Suns division and no one has any real chance of winning it besides them. The Suns are 33-8, scoring 112 PPG, playing really solid defense, and [ohbytheway] have won 14 straight games. I try not to get into too much hyperbole, but they have a chance to be one of the best teams ever. Their talent is that good, their coaching is that good, and they play that well together. They started the year 1-5 and have gone 32-3 since. They have 30 of their last 32 games. They own this division and there's no need to discuss anyone else.

Southwest Division
Once again the best division in the NBA and it features [in my opinion] 3 of the 5 best teams in the Conference. Dallas might even be better than Phoenix, the Spurs are still an excellent team, and Houston with a healthy McGrady and Yao can beat anyone in the NBA in a short series. All 3 teams are real good, and along with the Suns, Lakers, and Jazz are the reason that I am really, really looking forward to this year's playoffs.

So who's the best team in the NBA? Mavs or Suns?

A Special Shoutout to My Mom

I don't know if she'll ever read this because she doesn't like sports, but my mom was commenting on how I never write about her (or any of my other family) on here... which I thought there was an obvious reason, being that I generally write about sports. But that's ok. Which means that I'm breaking stride here with a non-sports post, but it's my party and I'll cry if I want to.

I don't want to leave anyone out, so rest assured, I love you Mom and you're the best!

(I hope she doesn't object to her picture being up here!)

Super Bowl: Colts vs. Bears

Offense vs. Defense. The Super Bowl will be a matchup of opposites... the Bears won today with defense, the Colts won with offense. A quick look at each of the games:

Bears 39, Saints 14
This one was all about the Bears defense. Drew Brees helped them out a little by having a pretty poor game, but that was mostly just due to the relentlessness of the Bears defense. The front line with Ogunleye, Anderson, and the rest were tremendously effective in getting pressure on Brees and forcing him to get rid of the ball. The Bears were great covering the receivers, putting pressure on the QB, and causing plays. They went for strips, INT, and everything else and it paid off in a big way all game.

Offensively, still not a good game by Grossman. Rex Grossman had one good drive all day, and a lot of that was largely the result of throwing against a bad CB in Fred Thomas. (and as a sidenote, great play by Bernard Berrian on the TD catch). However, he didn't really need to be that good, because the running game for the Bears was very solid. Benson and Jones each got at least 19 carries, and this allowed the Bears to control the clock. Bears just outplayed the Saints, especially with the great play of the defense.

Colts 38, Patriots 34
Wait, Peyton Manning led his team on the clutch TD drive while Tom Brady threw an INT to seal the game? I wonder how the media will take this one. Regardless, just an outstanding football game all around, and basically everything I thought it would be and more.

For the first half, it looked like it would be the same old song and dance for Peyton Manning against Bill Belicheck in the playoffs... after the INT return for TD by Asante Samuel, the Patriots had a 21-3 lead and were in complete control of the game. A late Indy FG in the first half made it 21-6, but surely Brady and Belicheck wouldn't let the Pats blow an 18 point lead?

Well, in the 2nd half the Colts were simply unstoppable. Well, not literally, but almost. Here were their 2nd half possessions: TD, TD, TD, Punt, FG, Punt, TD. 32 points in 30 minutes against a Bill Belicheck coached defense. Astounding.

It was a game that featured a lot of wild things... such as 2 fumbles recovered for TDs by offensive lineman, which isn't exactly an everyday occurrence. But the weirdest thing of all was the late 4th quarter, where for once we saw the Pats let a playoff game against the Colts slip away. Brady couldn't move the chains to put the game away, forcing the Patriots to punt it back, and Peyton Manning drove them right down the field for the game-winning TD.

For all of the bad commercials over the year, it's hard not to feel good for Manning. By all accounts he's an incredibly hard worker, and so it's nice to see him climb the mountain a little more to reach the Super Bowl. Now in 2 weeks we'll see if he can reach the top.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (Maybe?) Hire Mike Tomlin

As of this writing, Tomlin has not been confirmed as the new head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, but various reports seem to suggest that this is the case. Of course, as Daily Norseman reports, there's also other reports that suggest that Russ Grimm is the head coach. However, judging from the quantity and quality of all of these sources, it seems more likely that Tomlin will be on the Pittsburgh sideline next season.

As a Vikings fan, this sucks.

In a 6-10 season for the Vikings, Mike Tomlin was one of the few bright spots. Despite playing his college ball with Darren Sharper, Tomlin was hired away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where he was the defensive backs coach. He immediately came in and implemented a new scheme, utilized players well, and turned the Vikings into one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The run defense was historically good, and while the pass defense had its problems, the numbers suggest it maybe wasn't as bad as you might think.

Tomlin would be only the 3rd Pittsburgh Steelers coach in the last 38 years, and the 6th African-American coach in the NFL. From all I could see, he's a very bright, articulate guy that responded well to players and got the best out of them. I'm not sure he's ready to be a head coach in the NFL quite yet, but he's definitely one of the bright young coaching prospects out there.

At this point I still have a glimmer of hope that the reports might be false, because losing Tomlin is a tough pill to swallow. If the reports are true, I wish Tomlin well. I'm sure he'll do a great job in Pittsburgh.

Jeff Samardzija likes playing baseball

For the record, S-A-M-A-R-D-Z-I-J-A.

Second, as you're probably aware, Jeff Samardzija has chosen to join the Chicago Cubs and play baseball rather than enter the NFL Draft, where he most likely would have been taken somewhere in the first round.

This comes as a little bit of a surprise to me... I mean, normally guys opt for the more high profile NFL track and the whole playing right away thing rather than work their way through the Minors, as Samardzija will start in A Ball for the Cubbies.

But looking more closely, you have to think this was a pretty good decision for The Shark. Consider:

(1) MLB players don't take nearly the beating that NFL players do. Would you rather run a crossing route into the teeth of the defense or throw a ball? Same here.
(2) MLB contracts are guaranteed. Samardzija already has a 5 year, $10 million contract with bonuses making it potentially worth more. In the NFL he would probably be looking at a 5 year contract with about $6 million guaranteed, based on past amounts for draft picks.
(3) The average MLB players makes a lot more money than the average NFL player. This ties in with #2, but basically, no salary cap + not a lot of good pitchers = a lot of money for an MLB pitcher. Jason Marquis had an ERA of 6.02 and an ERA+ of 73 last year. He will make $7 million a year for the next 3 years. I rest my case.

So what do you think? Did he make the right decision deciding to play baseball rather than football?

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

After a great round of Divisional Playoff games, we are down to 4 teams left vying for the Vince Lombardi trophy. In one matchup we have familiar foes squaring off against each other, and in the other game we have a couple of new faces to the conference title game. Here’s a quick preview of each game:

NFC – New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears
It’s a classic offense vs. defense matchup. The Saints have a potent, well balanced attack that will be countered by a fast, smart Bears defense. But as has been the case with the Bears this year, this game will really come down to Rex Grossman. As long as he’s average the Bears have a great shot to just rely on the defense and special teams. However, average has sometimes been a tough task for Rex this year. In over a quarter of the Bears games this year Grossman has posted a QB rating under 40… do that again, and New Orleans will be the team advancing to the Super Bowl. He put together an average performance last week, but can he do it again?

Prediction: I’m not quite sold on Grossman. The Seahawks were unable to consistently put pressure on Grossman last week, but I think the Saints will be better in that area, and when Grossman is pressured he makes lots of mistakes. I think the Bears defense will keep them in the game, but ultimately New Orleans will be one step closer to reaching the ultimate goal SAINTS 27-20.

AFC – New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Raise your hand if you’ve seen this one before. But even after all the games over the years, Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady never really gets old. Both QBs struggled a bit last week, but both teams came out victorious. Surprisingly, Peyton Manning has put together two subpar games, but the Colts defense has carried them. For the Patriots, the Chargers did all they could to hand New England the game last week, and Tom Brady took it at the end. He will need to be better this week if the Pats want to advance to the Super Bowl again.

Prediction: Past performance does not predict future results, but I think it can help. That gets me back to thinking to the game earlier this season when the Patriots were defenseless stopping the Colts aerial attack. It’s hard to go against Belicheck and Brady in the playoffs, but in the Dome in Indy, I like the Colts to finally get over the hump against the Patriots in the playoffs. COLTS 34-31.

Who are your picks for the games?

2006 NFL Draft Redo

Hindsight is 20/20, and that's what makes it so fun. With the season in the books for most rookies, I thought it'd be interesting to take a look at what the teams would do if they could do it all over again. Would the Texans still take Mario Williams #1? Here's my 2006 NFL Draft Redo.

1. Houston Texans - Vince Young, QB Texas
Original Pick: Mario Williams, DE North Carolina State
Analysis: Mario Williams certainly showed flashes of the talent that made him the #1 pick in the draft, but I think the Texans would like a redo. On second thought, they would go with hometown hero Vince Young. With David Carr struggling this year, the multi-dimensional Young would be a good football and economic fit. He was able to lead the Titans all the way to the edge of the playoff race, and almost as important, he'd bring fans to the game in Houston.

2. New Orleans Saints - Reggie Bush, RB USC
Original Pick: Reggie Bush, RB USC
Analysis: Marques Colston was another rookie that made a splash in New Orleans, but I don't think the Saints are regretting their decision to draft Bush. He has combined with Deuce McAllister to form a dangerous RB duo, in part because Bush does a little bit of everything. He's an explosive runner, great pass catcher out of the backfield, and a good return man. Not much to dislike here.

3. Tennessee Titans - Matt Leinart, QB USC
Original Pick: Vince Young, QB Texas
Analysis: The Titans would love to get Young again, but they'll be ok with Matt Leinart. Coming to Tennessee will allow him to reunite with his college coordinator Norm Chow. Leinart obviously won't be able to make the plays Young made with his feet, but he'll be able to utilize all of the options on the Tennessee offense, and will be an excellent long-term solution.

4. N.Y. Jets - Marcus McNeill, OT Auburn
Original Pick: D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT Virginia
Analysis: The Jets did well in improving the O-Line, but this time around they'll go with a different OT, Marcus McNeill of Auburn. Playing for the Chargers, McNeill was a force on the Line, even making the Pro Bowl in year 1. It's hard to go wrong with D'Brickashaw, but Marcus McNeill was certainly the better OT in his rookie year.

5. Green Bay Packers - Jay Cutler, QB Vanderbilt
Original Pick: A.J. Hawk, LB Ohio State
Analysis: Brett Favre's a year older, Aaron Rodgers still hasn't done anything to prove himself, and this leads to the Packers going with Jay Cutler, a guy who reminded a lot of folks of Brett Favre. Cutler's got a great arm, toughness, and is a leader. He'll take the QB throne from Favre in Green Bay and remain there for a long time.

6. San Francisco 49ers - Mario Williams, DE NC State
Original Pick: Vernon Davis, TE Maryland
Analysis: The 49ers keep improving their defense with the talented Mario Williams. There was a reason he was the #1 pick, because he has great physical tools. He was a little inconsistent in his rookie campaign, but as he matures that should be less of a problem, and he'll just be able to let his immense talent lead the way.

7. Oakland Raiders - Marques Colston, WR Hofstra
Original Pick: Michael Huff, DB Texas
Analysis: People thought the WR corps might be one of the Raiders strenths coming into the year, but that's not quite how things turned out. Randy Moss didn't really try hard, Jerry Porter hardly played, and the rest of the guys couldn't get going without a decent QB in there. Insert Marques Colston. the best WR in the draft class and the WR corps gets back to being ok again. Now if they could just find a QB, maybe even this guy.

8. Buffalo Bills - DeMeco Ryans, LB Alabama
Original Pick: Donte Whitner, S Ohio State
Analysis: Ryans was very, very good for the Texans as a rookie, and the Bills will be happy to snatch him up at #8. He adds a talented piece to the Bills defensive puzzle, and immediately helps their defense get closer to the top defense they were a few years ago.

9. Detroit Lions - AJ Hawk, LB Ohio St.
Original Pick: Ernie Sims, LB Florida State
Analysis: Hawk was the best LB coming into the draft and still may be the one with the most upside. After a slow start to the year for the Packers, Hawk showed all of the tools that originally made him the 5th pick in the draft. He is tough stopping the run, but he has the speed and athletic ability to get out in coverage or blitz the QB. In other words, he's going to be very good for a long, long time.

10. Arizona Cardinals - D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT Virginia
Original Pick: Matt Leinart, QB USC
Analysis: With the QBs off the board, the Cardinals look at shoring up the perpetually awful O-Line, and get a gift in D'Brickashaw. He has all the tools to be a great O-Lineman in the NFL, and provides a long term answer for a franchise that's been desperately searching for long-time answers for quite a while.

11. Denver Broncos - Laurence Maroney, RB Minnesota
Original Pick: Jay Cutler, QB Vanderbilt
Analysis: Cutler is not on the board at this point, so Denver must look elsewhere. The biggest problem with their offense is that despite the Shanahan magic, they did not have a consistent running game. For the most part, this stemmed from the fact that their RBs aren't that good. So in comes Maroney, a talented back who had an immediate impact with the Patriots. Throw him in there behind that line and the Broncos running game is much more consistent.

12. Baltimore Ravens - Haloti Ngata, DT Oregon
Original Pick: Haloti Ngata, DT Oregon
Analysis: The Ravens originally went with Ngata and they are sticking to it. His big presence on the line gives LBs Ray Lewis and Adalius Thomas room to move around and make plays, which is a big reason the Ravens defense is so good.

13. Cleveland Browns - Joseph Addai, RB LSU
Original Pick: Kamerion Wimbley, DE/OLB Florida State
Analysis: The Browns have a lot of problems offensively, and one of them is at RB, where Reuben Droughns battled injury. The injection of Joseph Addai is a huge help to both the running game and the passing game. Addai is a tough, quick runner, good receiver out of the backfield, and improved his pass blocking skills as the season went along. Addai brings another playmaker to the offense to go along with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow.

14. Philadelphia Eagles - Kamerion Wimbley, LB Florida State
Original Pick: Broderick Bunkley, DT Florida State
Analysis: Wimbley had a very nice rookie campaign for the Browns as a tweener DE/LB pass rusher off the edge. He provides some explosiveness and youth for the Philly defense. He finished the year with 11 sacks for Cleveland and will be an impact player on the Eagles defense.

15. St. Louis Rams - Ernie Sims, LB Florida State
Original Pick: Tye Hill, Cb Clemson
Analysis: With Ernie Sims still on the board, the Rasm jump to take the athletic LB from FSU. Sims led the Lions in tackles, has good instincts defensively and has the athletic ability to get anywhere on the field.

16. Miami Dolphins - Vernon Davis, TE Maryland
Original Pick: Jason Allen, DB Tennessee
Analysis: The Dolphins are in need of offensive playmakers, so on comes the physical specimen of Vernon Davis. His numbers weren't that great this year as he was battling some injuries, but his upside and physical ability is tremendous. He becomes a weapon for the Dolphins, and soon enough becomes a focal point of the offense.

17. Minnesota Vikings - Mark Anderson, DE Alabama
Original Pick: Chad Greenway, LB Iowa
Analysis: There are more glaring needs offensively, but its hard to pass up this chance to go from a good defense to a great defense. The thing that hurt the Vikings defense last year was that they could not consistently get a pass rush... insert Anderson, who had 12 sacks with the Bears as a rookie, and suddenly the secondary doesn't have to cover quite as long, and the Vikings aren't giving up as many pass yards. With the top 3 QBs off the board, DE is the choice here.

18. Dallas Cowboys - Nick Mangold, C Ohio State
Original Pick: Bobby Carpenter, LB Ohio State
Analysis: The Cowboys O-Line began to struggle as the year went on, which leads to the pick of Mangold. He's a very solid interior lineman and should be in the NFL for a long time, locking up the middle for the Cowboys.

19. San Diego Chargers - Greg Jennings, WR Western Michigan
Original Pick: Antonio Cromartie, CB Florida State
Analysis: The Chargers don't have many needs, but anyone can always use another offensive weapon, and that's what Greg Jennings will bring. He was very solid as a rookie in Green Bay, and will be just another talented option for QB Philip Rivers to go to to make the offense even better.

20. Kansas City Chiefs - Tamba Hali, DE Penn State
Original Pick: Tamba Hali, DE Penn State
Analysis: Hali got better and better as the season wore on for the Chiefs, forming a solid DE duo for the Chiefs. With Hali falling here again, the Chiefs will take him and be happy with the up-and-coming Hali.

21. New England Patriots - Maurice Jones-Drew, RB UCLA
Original Pick: Laurence Maroney, RB Minnesota
Analysis: With Maroney off the board, the Patriots go with the best RB option on the board, and that is Maurice Jones-Drew. In his rookie year Drew showed lots of flashes of brilliance, and is capable of scoring a TD from anywhere on the field. He's also an excellent receiver out of the backfield and a Special Teams threat, and we know the Patriots love versatile players that can help in many ways.

22. San Francisco 49ers - Devin Hester, KR Miami
Original Pick: Manny Lawson, DE/OLB North Carolina State
Analysis: With the earlier pick of Williams to help the defense, they turn to Hester, who was the best Special Teams weapon in the NFL as a rookie. He can single-handedly change the course of games with returns, as well as change field position. Also, if he develops enough he might even be able to help out a little in the secondary.

23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Johnathon Joseph, CB South Carolina
Original Pick: Davin Joseph, G Oklahoma
Analysis: With Brian Kelly and Ronde Barber getting older, Joseph provides some youth at the CB position for the Bucs. He was very solid as a rookie for the Bengals, and will provide immediate help in the nickel for an older Bucs defense.

24. Cincinnati Bengals - Elvis Dumervil, DE Louisville
Original Pick: Johnathan Joseph, CB South Carolina
Analysis: Dumervil dropped in the real draft, but the Bengals will take him with pick 24 here. Dumervil struggled a little bit his last year in college, but was really a good pass rusher as a rookie for Denver. And a bonus for Cincy, he's not in in legal trouble!

25. Pittsburgh Steelers - Mathias Kiwanuka, DE Boston College
Original Pick: Santonio Holmes, WR Ohio State
Analysis: The Steelers could look to improve the offense, but instead they look towards the other side of the ball in an effort to keep the defense at the same level it's been at for a long time. Kiwanuka provides nice depth and another pass rusher on the Line, and an NFL can never have enough guys like that.

26. Buffalo Bills - Michael Huff, S Texas
Original Pick: John McCargo, DT North Carolina State
Analysis: There's a reason he was taken so early in the real draft... he's a very talented player and is a steal for the Bills this late in the draft. In real life the Bills took Donte Whitner early in the first round, in this fantasy world of mine Michael Huff is a fine replacement and will be a fine player for the Bills to come, as they have the making of a great young defensive core with Huff and DeMeco Ryans.

27. Carolina Panthers - DeAngelo Williams, RB Memphis
Original Pick: DeAngelo Williams, RB Memphis
Analysis: Williams did about what everyone expected for the Panthers... he showed signs of that talent that got him taken here originally, and he challenged Deshaun Foster for the starting spot. I think the Panthers would be happy to get him again.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jerious Norwood, RB Mississippi State
Original Pick: Mercedes Lewis, TE UCLA
Analysis: In real life, the Jags got Jones-Drew and he was a huge help to the offense. With him off the board, they look for another running back, and take Jerious Norwood. Norwood didn't get a ton of carries in Atlanta, but he was very good when he did get the ball. Splitting time with Fred Taylor should work out great, as Norwood becomes the RB of the future in Jacksonville.

29. NY Jets - Donte Whitner, S Ohio State
Original Pick: Nick Mangold, C Ohio State
Analysis: With Mangold gone, the Jets look to improve the defense with a very good player in Donte Whitner. Whitner was a nice player for the Bills as a rookie, and showed good cover skills and tackling ability. Everyone thought he went too early last draft, but he's an absolute steal at this point.

30. Indianapolis Colts - Manny Lawson, LB NC State
Original Pick: Joseph Addai, RB LSU
Analysis: With all of the top running backs off the board, the Colts are forced to look for defense, and that leads them to the raw but athletic Manny Lawson. Lawson's game is more of a pass-rusher type right now, but with his great abilities and Tony Dungy's defensive knowledge, he'll be a nice help to the Colts defense.

31. Seattle Seahawks - Tye Hill, CB Clemson
Original Pick: Kelly Jennings, CB Miami (FL)
Analysis: The Seahawks showed that they have some problems in the secondary, though some of that was due to the injuries back there. So to add depth they go with Tye Hill, a slightly undersized corner that has very good cover skills. He'll be a fine addition to the Seattle secondary and will have a chance to play right away.

32. N.Y. Giants - Santonio Holmes, WR Ohio State
Original Pick: Mathias Kiwanuka, DE Boston College
Analysis: With a lot of the DEs off the board, the Giants look to add another weapon for Eli Manning. Santonio Holmes showed flashes of his great talent as a rookie, and immediately becomes a dangerous 3rd WR after Toomer and Burress, as well as a good Special Teams option. Plus, with Toomer getting older and older, Holmes will be able to step in soon to be the #2 guy in the Big Apple.

L-L-L-Links

It was a busy day for me with homework and the like, which makes it a perfect day to let other do the work for me and just hand out some links.

First off, if you haven't checked out my Sports Videos blog, you should. You're just going to have to take my word for it. Latest videos include an Adrian Peterson highlight video and a Len Bias tribute video. Just try and resist the goodness of that.

Second, you should probably go to Deadspin, because they always have good stuff.

Ian has all you need to know about the Chris Webber in Detroit signing. As far as my thoughts, I think it's a good move for Detroit simply because Webber still has some skills and came cheap. However, Webber's skills have diminished, and to say he's a defensive liability is quite an understatement at this point. Interesting piece from John Hollinger about it, including the observation that in about 2 years the Pistons have turned from a defensive dominated team to a Euro style team. They'll be fun to watch.

Chan Gailey in the running for an NFL job? Sadly enough, yes he is. But then again, 28-21 as a college coach is pretty awesome, right?

Eli Manning, everybody!

In case you haven't seen it, WBRS Sports Blog has the video of Tony Allen tearing his ACL after going for a dunk well after the whistle blew. Just an unfortunate and ugly injury.

Lastly, a marketer for Carmelo Anthony sent me an email asking me if I would help promote Carmelo Anthony's Myspace page... and since he asked so nicely, I feel obliged to include a link here.

That's what I got. I'll try to be better the next time. Maybe.

Early NFL Draft Entrants

For the complete list of NFL Early Entrants, you can look here, but for fun, I'll just take a look at the biggest names that I know a little something about, separated by position.

Quarterback
JaMarcus Russell, LSU - regular readers will know that I'm a fan of JaMarcus Russell... he's my #1 QB prospect heading into the draft. He's got a huge arm, was pretty accurate this year, and physically is the most gifted QB in the draft. Definitely made the right move coming out now for the Draft.

Colt Brennan, Hawaii - Brennan put up super numbers this year... 58 TD, lots of yards, etc. but now we'll see if NFL teams think he's just a system QB or a legitimate prospect. He'll probably be competing with Troy Smith and Drew Stanton to be the 3rd QB taken in the Draft. That spot would have gone to Brian Brohm, but of course he decided to stay in school.

Running Back
Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma - I think Peterson is a great NFL prospect and should be a great NFL RB as long as he can stay healthy. He's fast, he's a tough inside runner, and he can make people miss. In many ways I think he's every bit the RB prospect that Reggie Bush was last year, albeit a very different style.

Darius Walker, Notre Dame - this surprised me a bit when I saw Walker was coming out. I personally am not that high on him... I didn't think he was that good running the ball, but he is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. At best, I think he'll be a Kevin Faulk type without the Special Teams skills. Which isn't bad, but I'm just a little surprised he came out with another year left of eligibility.

Michael Bush, Lousville - he must have really not wanted to go back to school, entering the Draft even after the big injury. Even so, as long as he can show he's healthy, he'll probably be a late first round back. He's got good patience and vision in the backfield and should be a solid runner.

Marshawn Lynch, California - Lynch has big play ability and will probably be the second RB off the board. He averaged over 6 YPC each of his 3 years and greatly increased his receiving totals this year as well. He finished with almost 1700 all-purpose yards this year.

Wide Receiver
Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech - I think Johnson is excellent and he will be the top WR off the board. If he fell to the Vikings at #7 I would possibly faint out of joy. He's fast, he's got great hands, great body control, great anticipation... basically, he rocks.

Ted Ginn, Ohio St. - Ginn's my #2 WR on the board. He's not a great route runner and he doesn't have the best hands ever, but he makes things happen. He's similar to Reggie Bush in that anytime he has the ball he is capable of scoring. Extra boost for being such a Special Teams threat as well. I'm a big fan.

Dwayne Jarrett, USC - Jarrett has very good hands and is a pretty good route runner. He may not be as explosive after the catch as Ginn or Johnson, but it's hard to argue with the production. 41 TD catches in 3 years.

Robert Meachem, Tennessee - not sure if this was a good year for a fringe underclassmen WR to come to the draft. Meachem is obviously talented (he put up BIG numbers for the Vols this year), but he'll be either the 5th or 6th WR off the board most likely. Still, should be an excellent 2nd round pick for some team.

Sidney Rice, South Carolina - See Meachem. Rice is very talented, but I'm not sure he'll go higher than any of the top 4. Should be a solid NFL player.

Defense
Jamaal Anderson, Alabama - I've heard a lot of talk about Anderson since he declared, and now he may even be the first DE taken in the draft. I'll admit I don't know much about him right now, though hopefully I'll learn, as he could be one of the Vikings top choices at #7.

Reggie Nelson, Florida - I was impressed everytime I watched Nelson play this year. He's a big hitter in the secondary, but more importantly he always seemed to have good instincts going to get the ball. Even if he wasn't going for the INT, he was in plays hitting WR as the ball got there, tipping balls, etc. and was one of the main reasons Florida's defense was as good as it was.

There's a lot of other good early entrant players defensively, most notably Jarvis Moss of Florida and Alan Branch of Michigan, but I really don't know much at all about them, so I won't bore you with bad generalizations.

So anyway, what guys are you most looking forward to watching?

NFL Divisional Round Recap

Well, the final four is set, and as expected, things were pretty exciting on the way there. A brief recap of each game, only because I care [about increasing readership]:

Colts 15, Ravens 6
I hate to say it, but this was a pretty dull game. Not even just speaking in relation to the other 3 games, which were excellent, this game just wasn't really entertaining at all. Though this is quite a story for Indy... they've won 2 straight games and Peyton Manning has been positively mediocre. I know the Ravens D rocks, but Manning did not play well. Fortunately, the suddenly stout Indy D was superb. I think Benny is right... it's been a good thing for the Colts to be a little more under the radar than in years past.

Saints 27, Eagles 24
Now the Saints, they are a fun team to watch. With all due respect to LT and the like, none of them get me as interested when they have the ball as when Reggie Bush has the ball. The cutback, across field, 20 yard run was a good example of that... you just never know what's going to happen. For the Iggles, they were 5-6, lost their starting QB, and then went on to win the division and win a playoff game. Nothing to hang your head about there.

Bears 27, Seahawks 24
This was vintage Rex Grossman out there. When he has some time, he can make some great throws... the long TD pass to Berrian was a beautiful throw. However, when there's even a hint of pressure he gets antsy, loses his mechanics, throws off his back foot, is fumble-prone, and makes bad decisions. It happened today when the Seahawks were able to get pressure, and it's happened every time I've seen a team get pressure on Rex. At the end of the day a playoff win is a playoff win, but they eeked out a win at home against the worst team left in the playoffs, a team that also happened to have a banged up secondary. A meh performance in my opinion, but they won, and that's always a plus.

Patriots 24, Chargers 21
I expected this game to be awesome, and it didn't disappoint. Well, the Chargers disappointed a little by their play, but the game was close. I have ragged on Marty a lot, and I think he's not very good, and I think he maybe had a couple of errors, but this one is all on the players. They are more talented, they were put in position to make plays, and they very often did not. As for the Patriots... Deion Branch who? Adam Vinatieri who? Gostowski was perfect, Caldwell and Gaffney were brilliant, and Tom Brady just did his thing at the end of the game. You couldn't script it any better than that for the Patriots.

Overall, 3/4 with my picks for that round... I'll take it. How did you do?

NFL Playoff Predictions: AFC

Like my NFC Predictions, I'll give you 2 reasons why each team will win, and then my actual pick. So yeah, let's jump right in.

(4) New England Patriots @ (1) San Diego Chargers
Why the Patriots will win:
1) Bill Belicheck. The coaching edge here is ginormous for the Pats... Belicheck is the best coach in the NFL, Marty has a 5-12 career playoff record and a track record of coaching with two hands around his neck. The Chargers are more talented, so the Pats need another good gameplan from Belicheck to slow down LT.
2) Tom Brady. Ok, these were like the two most obvious, predictable reasons ever, but it's the truth. But still, Tom Brady is real good. He's accurate and knows where to go with the ball. One other thing that gets overlooked with him, and this will be important against the Bolts pass rush, is that he has great pocket presence. He knows when to get rid of the ball and when he has a little extra time.

Why the Chargers will win:
1) The front 7. The Chargers have a great front 7 that will be able to slow down the Pats running game and should be able to force Brady to make some quick throws. They will need to be on their game so that Brady doesn't have time to pick apart the secondary.
2) Sheer talent. Say what you want about coaching and everything else... the fact is, the Chargers are the most talented team here. Obviously there's LT, but they also have the best TE in the League, a good O-Line, and a top 3 defense. There's not much to dislike here.

Who will win: I love Brady and Belicheck... they're smart, they've got a great track record, and Brady seems to almost always play his best in big games (except last year's playoffs)... but in San Diego, with all that talent on both sides of the ball, I just can't pick against the Chargers here. This should be an absolutely fascinating game, but I've got to take the Bolts in a tight one. CHARGERS 27-24.

(3) Indianapolis Colts @ (2) Baltimore Ravens
Why the Colts will win:
1) Maybe they have this defense thing figured out. I have my doubts about if they've figured out how to stop the run (I think that had a lot to do with KC being inept offensively), but maybe they have figured something out. If so, they are a Super Bowl team.
2) Peyton Manning. We all know about his track record... but seriously, he's too good to have another bad playoff game, right? Right?

Why the Ravens will win:
1) They can put pressure on Peyton Manning. If you give Manning time, he'll pick you apart. Absolutely, no doubt about it. But if the Ravens can pressure Manning, he'll get jittery and start throwing the ball around a bit, and the opportunistic secondary for Baltimore can take advantage of that.
2) The Colts still can't stop the run. Last week the Colts loaded up the box, and the Chiefs were either not good enough or not smart enough to beat that. Can the Colts consistently put 8 in the box again and still be able to stop Steve McNair. Well, let me just say that Brian Billick is a sharper offensive mind than Herm Edwards.

Who will win: Maybe this is just bias from my preseason Super Bowl pick, but I'll take the Colts here. I'm not real confident they can shut down Jamal Lewis, but he hasn't been that great this year. And I still have a couple doubts about Air McNair. Should be a very interesting matchup. COLTS 23-20.

What are your picks?

Rock-Paper-Scissors, Edgar Allan Poe, and Play Selection

Despite the lofty title, this post focuses on the narrow topic of calling the right play in a football game. Coaches spend an enormous amount of time studying film, determining tendencies, creating gigantic scouting reports for each opponent, and then distributing them to their other coaches and to players who do not read them. Barely sleeping is a badge of honor, particularly at the highest levels, we are sure that more work equals more success.

This is surely true, but how is time best spent? And how should the entire idea of "play-calling" be thought of? Despite all the time spent on preparation, when asked most playcallers, such as Notre Dame's Charlie Weis, say that playcalling is "more art than science." If so much of it is gut feeling and chance during the game, then maybe the better strategy is to get some sleep during the week. I'm kidding, as I put a high premium on preparation, but can active playcalling do more harm than good? And what are the boundaries to knowledge and insight into what the other guy is going to do? Is it ever better to pick your call or choice randomly? Don't we already do that quite often?

Poe's Purloined Letter

In Edgar Allan Poe's the Purloined Letter, a character recounts a story of a young man who excels at game called "odds and evens," more popularly known as "matching pennies." The game is a two-strategy version of rock-paper-scissors: Each player secretly turns their coin to heads or tails and then both reveal their choices simultaneously; if the pennies match (both heads or both tails) then one player gets a dollar, if they do not match then the other player gets the dollar. As told in the story, the young man quickly sizes up his opponents, gains a psychological advantage, and amasses a fortune by outguessing his opponents.

I suppose all playcallers think themselves like the young man, but most are probably more similar to the suckers. But here's the rub: The suckers could nullify the young man's psychological advantage.

How?

By choosing randomly. If the suckers put no thought into whether they chose heads or tails, they would do better than if they tried their best to outthink him. They would break even--a fantastic result against the world's greatest matching pennies player--an unnatural genius who, according to the story, would go through lengthy Sherlock Holmsian deductions to determine if his opponent was going to choose heads or tails.

This is a breath-taking result. But it is also scary--would I be better off picking my plays entirely randomly?

Rock-Paper-Scissors and the Bend-But-Don't-Break-Defense

Playcalling, at least oversimplified, is a lot like matching pennies, or--for a more common game--rock-paper-scissors. If I choose rock and you choose scissors, I get a first down. If I choose rock and you choose rock, I maybe gain a couple yards. If I choose rock and you choose paper--whoops, I just got sacked and maybe fumbled too.

A lot of football games come down to who has the bigger rocks and scissors (more talent), but tough, highly competitive games really do come down to whether you picked paper vs. his rock or vs. his scissors. But how many supposedly great calls were just luck? Probably a lot. We try to make educated guesses, but there's something to be said for going random.

Let me backtrack for a moment. John Wooden, the best basketball coach ever, talked a great deal about focusing on his team. Norm Chow, now offensive coordinator with Tennessee, mentioned how very often he really does not know what the other team is even running right then, and it would be hubris to act like he always knew. When a playcaller says that it is more art than science, he's really just saying that he's out there making (educated) guesses, but guesses nonetheless. Wooden's insight about focusing on his team is that time is best spent byfocusing on what you can control: developing your own talents and self-scouting--to avoid situations where you do become predictible.

The message? When you're scouting you're looking for sure things. Times when you know the other team is going to blitz, or is going to run that one screen pass they like or whatnot, and the best thing you can do to win games is make sure that you don't have any of these true "tendencies" that your opponent can act on. The fact that the other team knows you run it 37.4% of the time on 3rd and 4 1/2 on your own 43 is simply not useful information because it doesn't materially narrow their decision-making. If they know you only run it 3.74% of the time, that is material.

To carry the metaphor, you help yourself the most by preventing your opponent from ever knowing that if you lose twice in a row, you always shoot rock. You may still lose three in a row, but you've given him no advantage. Again, this is powerful. Even if you are playing the world's greatest playcaller or rock-paper-scissors champion, you can still break even, and then wait for those rare times when you know they are going to blitz, or come out with scissors, and hopefully carry the day.

So what's that about the bend-but-don't-break? Imagine: You are playing rock-paper-scissors. Whoever wins gets $1, if you shoot the same no one gets anything, but if rock wins over scissors, the winner get $10. What will this do to the game? Anyone with any sense is going to try to play rock more often than anything else and rarely, if ever, play scissors. If you shoot scissors you can win $1, break even, or lose $10. If you shoot rock you can lose $1, break even, or win $10.

This is the theory behind the bend-but-don't-break defense (and to some extent the more wide-open offenses). The idea is that if you play a gambling type defense, you may win more than you lose, but when you guess wrong, you give up a TD or a big play. The bend-but-don't break will concede by giving up many short passes and runs, and hope not to give up the big play. I am not saying this is a superior strategy, and in fact may be a long-run loser, but it's important to understand the theory. The person practicing that defense recognizes that they will probably be wrong more than they are right, but they think it will be worth it in the long-run--the risk is acceptable to them.

Application

This "mixed strategy" thinking is not meant to supplant gameplanning. (Offensive Coordinator: "Sorry Coach, I'm not doing any work this week, Chris's website told me to just go out there and 'wing it.'" Head Coach: "You're fired.") Indeed, much of gameplanning should fit into your estimates of what will and won't be successful, and then you can engage in a bit of the decision to run or pass I detailed in this post.

What it does is it gives you a place to start. You should have a general equilibrium strategy based on your talent and what you emphasize going in week to week. You can hope to be a 50/50 run/pass on 1st and 10 team, with focuses on quick and intermediate passes and power runs. This is your so-called "identity" and your practices will focus there because it is what you do the most. Then you "kink-it," or skew your weekly plan to the things the defense is weakest against. Who do we run against? What coverages will we see the most? Do they blitz a lot?

Another important application is the "intelligent" mixed-strategy. For example, you face a team that runs the gamut of coverages: Cover 1, 2, 3 and 4 and man and zone and every kind of blitz and they also drop 8 guys into coverage sometimes. But you notice that if you line up in a "trips formation" they will only play Cover 1 or 3, then you have significantly improved your chances. You still don't know for sure if they will be in Cover 3 or 1, or if they will or won't blitz, but you r mixed strategy has been narrowed to a better range of possibilities.

Yet, most teams know their own weaknesses. Most defenses match their weakest defenders with their strongest, not content to let half their defense get run over every week. Further, you get into that neverending mental game: I want to throw quick routes because he likes to blitz. But he knows I know he likes to blitz, so maybe I will throw off deeper drops because his defenders will be looking for my quick passes. But then maybe he knows that I know that he knows that I know he likes to blitz, and thus will blitz anyway countering my counter. And so on. Do I have any special proficiency for this? What if the defensive coordinator is straight out of the Purloined Letter? Remember Norm Chow: if you are so certain of what the other team will do or you have a true read on the opposing coach, it's probably just you being arrogant.

Conclusion

Imagine you are a wing-T youth coach, and you have only three plays: the dive, the bucksweep, and the waggle (bootleg). You can win a lot of games simply by selecting those three plays practically at random; each perfectly counters the other. Then, every so often, you'll see that moment when you know that the waggle will be there. The corners are coming up for the run, the receiver has a mismatch, you know the QB will break contain, so you call it--TD.

Simplified, this is where gameplanning, play-calling, and deception all intersect. Although I've focused on play-calling from the sidelines, I recognize that in modern football playcalling differs from rock-paper-scissors in that it is not a static, simultaneous "now show it" game.

In football you call the play, then show a formation--thus narrowing the range of possibilities--then the play begins, and with good recognition both the offense and defense can react to what the defense is doing and put themselves in position to win. Many very good offenses try to "cheat" on good playcalling by calling everything from the line of scrimmage, and the run and shoot and the triple option try to "cheat" even further by putting a premium on "reading the defense" to make themselves right all the time. Many good defenses operate on similar principles. The important thing to remember for now is that deception and duplicity are your best weapons to prevent this kind of targeting, and once you've done that, you tilt the advantage back in your favor, and the "mixed strategy" reemerges as your best course. And again, if you can limit their strategies by formation or design, then you can improve your mixed strategy by being able to choose the things that defeat their known range of possibilities, rather than than having to be totally random.

NFL Playoff Predictions: NFC

AFC PICKS

The 4 playoff matchups this weekend are just so very good that I need to split them up into 2 separate posts. The matchups are great, and should hopefully produce some well played, competitive games.

I'll do these previews similar to my National Championship preview... I'll give 2 reasons why each team will win, and then give my prediction. So yeah, feel free to give yours in the comments.

(4) Seattle Seahawaks @ (1) Chicago Bears
Why the Seahawks will win:
1) Rex Grossman. Let's be honest, for all of the Bears strengths (namely that they have the best defense and special teams in the NFL), Rex Grossman has been a little hit-and-miss this year.In 5 games this year his QB rating has been under 40, and three times the QB rating has been 10.2 or less (including 0 once). QB rating isn't perfect, but that's just a quick measure of how bad he has been in some games.
2) Rex Grossman. In truth, this is what needs to happen for the Seahawks to win. Rex Grossman needs to have an awful game. The offense is banged up, the defense isn't that good, and the game is in Chicago. They need Grossman to have a game like he did in the regular season finale.

Why the Bears will win:
1) The Defense. Simply put, they have the best defense in the NFL. They're fast, they're smart, they tackle well, they're talented, and they're well coached. Not much to dislike.
2) The Special Teams. Similar to the defense, they have the best Special Teams in the NFL. Robbie Gould has been reliable all year, and Devin Hester has 6 return TDs. A great all-around unit.

Who will win: I don't have a lot of faith in Rex Grossman to deliver a quality ballgame, but I have enough faith in the D. I think Grossman will be more conservative and let the defense win the game for the Bears. This year they'll be able to take care of their first playoff game at home. BEARS 20-10.

(3) Philadelphia Eagles @ (2) New Orleans Saints
Why the Eagles will win:
1) Momentum. As we saw with the Steelers, sometimes this can mean anything. The Eagles are the hottest team in the NFL, and if Jeff Garcia can keep playing mistake-free football, they might just be able to ride that momentum into the NFC Conference Championship.
2) Brian Westbrook. With all due respect to Reggie Bush, Brian Westbrook is the most multi-dimensional back that will be playing in this ballgame. He's a great receiver as he has shown throughout the year, he's a good return man, and now that he's getting carries we see he is an excellent runner. He's capable of carrying the Eagles offense.

Why the Saints will win:
1) Best offense in the NFC. They have balance and big-play ability. Drew Brees has been, in a word, awesome at the QB spot. Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush have very different games, and that's what makes them effective and so dangerous. The receivers have been a solid group this year, led by rookie Marques Colston. And the Line, led by All-Pro Jamaal Brown is solid. This offense can score quickly in many different ways.
2) Home field advantage. The Superdome will be absolutely rocking for this game.

Who will win: The Eagles have been playing great football, but I think their time has run out. Drew Brees and the offense will be clicking, and the whole Saints team will be fired up by the raucous Superdome crowd. SAINTS 34-23.

Your thoughts?